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Arthur Hayes表示,人工智能热潮中数万亿美元正被“浪费”。他正押注于接下来会发生什么Trillions are being ‘wasted’ on the AI boom, Arthur Hayes says. He’s betting on what comes next

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前 BitMEX 首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 押注,人工智能热潮最终将产生一个熟悉的结果:过度投资、崩盘,以及最终推高加密货币价格的救助行动。

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes is betting that the artificial intelligence boom will eventually produce a familiar outcome: too much investment, a crash and, ultimately, a bailout that sends crypto higher.

Hayes 是加密投资公司 Maelstrom 的联合创始人兼首席投资官,他在新加坡举行的 Gamma Prime 投资大会上回应 CNBC 提问时表示,人类正在“浪费数万亿美元”用于建设 AI 数据中心。

Hayes, co-founder and chief investment officer of crypto investment firm Maelstrom, said in response to questions from CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore that humanity is "wasting multi-trillion dollars" on building AI data centers.

Hayes 称,大规模的数据中心建设最终将使算力变得“极其廉价且极其充裕”。

The massive data center buildout would ultimately make computing power "extremely cheap and extremely plentiful," Hayes said.

这一押注与涌入 AI 基础设施的巨额投资背道而驰,科技公司正竞相争夺开发和运行日益先进的 AI 模型所需的算力。Hayes 认为,这种建设最终将导致产能过剩,为一场他预期最终将利好加密货币的低迷期铺平道路。

The bet runs against the massive investment pouring into AI infrastructure, as technology companies race to secure the computing power needed to develop and run increasingly advanced AI models. Hayes sees that buildout eventually becoming overcapacity, setting the stage for a downturn that he expects will ultimately benefit crypto.

“如果你研究金融历史,研究每一次重大技术推广,它总是会过度建设。总会有一场崩盘,总会有一场救助,”Hayes 说。

"If you study financial history and you study every single major technological rollout, it always is overbuilt. There always is a crash, and there always is a bailout," Hayes said.

Hayes 表示,为这些救助行动做好布局的投资者将获益,他指向 2008 年金融危机的后果以及过去二十年的其他事件。

Investors who position for those bailouts stand to benefit, Hayes said, pointing to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and other episodes over the past two decades.

“幸运的是,我们有比特币和其他加密货币来吸收那些过剩流动性,所以我们知道当救助到来时,哪类资产表现会最好,”Hayes 补充道,“你只需要耐心等待。” Hayes 称,SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等是推动算力需求的终端用户,但它们没有一家盈利。他表示,一旦目前在建的数据中心建成,基础设施提供商将寻求这些公司承诺购买的算力付款。

"Thankfully, we have bitcoin and other crypto to soak up that excess liquidity, and so we know the asset that's going to perform the best when the bailout comes," Hayes said, adding that "you just have to be patient." SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are among the end users driving demand for computing power, and none of them makes money, Hayes said. Once the data centers currently under construction are completed, infrastructure providers will seek payment for the compute those companies have committed to, he said.

根据 Hayes 的说法,这可能发生在 2027 年底或 2028 年,届时大部分新数据中心产能将交付使用。

That could come in late 2027 or 2028, when much of the new data center capacity is delivered, according to Hayes.

看涨的理由是,未来12个月内AI变得“非常有用”,需求增长足以让AI公司实现盈利,Hayes表示。

The bull case is that AI becomes "so useful" over the next 12 months that demand grows enough for AI companies to become profitable, Hayes said.

Hayes表示,一些为AI热潮提供支持的公司已经在赚钱,他指向了存储芯片制造商和英伟达。他补充道,投资者面临的问题是,他们是否为这些公司的远期盈利支付了合适的倍数。

Some companies supplying the AI boom are already making money, Hayes said, pointing to memory chipmakers and Nvidia. The question for investors is whether they are paying the right multiple for those companies' forward earnings, he added.

Hayes还表示,他不喜欢押注价格下跌或做空AI公司,称这“不是一个真正好的投资机会”,但他补充道,历史上重大技术推广往往会过度建设。

Hayes also said he does not like betting on falling prices or shorting AI companies, calling it "not really a great investment opportunity," but added that major technological rollouts have historically been overbuilt.

AI建设带来的算力过剩,也是Hayes最新加密货币项目Flop的背景,这是一个预计于2027年第一季度推出的AI代理支付项目。Hayes表示,更便宜、更充足的算力将使AI代理大量涌现。

The abundance of computing power created by the AI buildout is also behind Hayes' latest crypto venture, Flop, an AI-agent payments project expected to launch in the first quarter of 2027. Cheaper and more plentiful computing power would allow AI agents to proliferate, Hayes said.

他的新项目Flop旨在创建一个算力现货市场,参与者通过提供GPU和执行AI推理来获得Flop代币奖励。

His new project, Flop, aims to create a spot market for computing power, where participants are rewarded with Flop tokens for providing GPUs and performing AI inference.

Hayes表示,目前还没有面向AI代理的支付网络。Flop旨在创建一个算力现货市场。

There is currently no payments network for AI agents, Hayes said. Flop aims to create a spot market for compute.

“如果代理能直接将货币转换为算力——这是它们所吃、所消耗的东西——那么它们就会使用这种货币,”Hayes说。“这就是我们的押注。”

"If agents can convert a currency directly into compute, which is what they eat and consume, then they will use this currency," Hayes said. "That's our bet."