US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are reportedly minimal, but his campaign for the award is expected to cast a shadow over Friday’s announcement of the winner in Oslo, AFP reported, citing experts. The Norwegian Nobel Committee is likely to face close scrutiny as it announces this year’s laureate, with Trump having campaigned extensively for the prestigious award since returning to the White House in January 2025. Trump ‘accepts’ Nobel Nobel Peace Prize from Venezuelan opposition leader Machado. Can the honour be transferred? His prospects of winning the prize have, however, been weakened by his war against Iran, territorial ambitions and criticism of international cooperation institutions and the media, AFP reported.

Although Trump has not lobbied as openly for the Nobel in recent weeks, experts believe he remains a significant factor in the committee’s deliberations.

The choice of laureate could be interpreted as either direct or indirect criticism of the US president, the report said. Trump is “the spectre in the room”, said Haakon Gjerlow, head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO).mp revives Nobel Peace Prize pitch with India-Pakistan ceasefire claimGjerlow said the Nobel committee would have to consider whether awarding the prize could create “harm rather than good”, given the possible reaction from the White House. However, Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, told AFP that lobbying and attempts to pressure the committee were not unusual.“There's always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee,” Harpviken said, adding that such efforts did not influence the committee’s discussions or decisions.

Possible contendersThe Nobel Peace Prize last year went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice that was generally considered acceptable to Trump. Machado later gave Trump her Nobel gold medal, saying he deserved it following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, although she did not secure his political backing in return.

The developments could influence the committee to select a laureate with broad support this year, including an individual or organisation involved in protecting children or humanitarian work, AFP reported. Nobel Peace Prize 2025: What are Donald Trump's chances of winning? Possible contenders include Save the Children and Ukrainian children's rights activist Mykola Kuleba, who has campaigned for the return of children allegedly taken to Russia from occupied Ukrainian territories.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a network of volunteers helping people affected by war and hunger, could also be considered for the prize. The committee could alternatively select a laureate whose work is likely to be viewed unfavourably by Trump, including UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ).“We live in an age of predators. We have Trump, Putin, Netanyahu,” said Nobel historian Asle Sveen.

Referring to the ICC, Sveen said the institutions of international justice stood in the way of major powers seeking spheres of influence.A total of 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, although the names of nominees remain confidential for 50 years. The award comes amid a rise in armed conflicts globally.

PRIO recorded 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor in 2025, the highest number since 1946.“At an overall level, it is clear that the world is not developing in the right direction,” Harpviken said, while noting that there was no shortage of individuals and organisations undertaking peace-building and humanitarian work.“A peace prize may make more sense than ever,” he said.(with inputs from agencies)