诺贝尔和平奖将于10月9日在奥斯陆揭晓，共有287名提名者，外界高度关注唐纳德·特朗普将如何反应。
The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo on Oct 9, with 287 nominees and heavy focus on how Donald Trump may react.
专家表示特朗普不会获奖，如果委员会的选择被视为对他的批评，可能会面临反弹。
Experts say Trump will not win, and the committee could face backlash if its choice is seen as criticism of him.
热门获奖者包括人道主义和儿童保护组织，而颁奖季将于10月12日结束，每个诺贝尔奖奖金为120万美元。
Likely winners include humanitarian and child-protection groups, while the prize season ends on Oct 12 and each Nobel award includes US$1.2 million.
AI生成 奥斯陆——诺贝尔和平奖得主将于10月9日在奥斯陆揭晓，外界高度关注渴望亲自获奖的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将如何反应。
AI generated OSLO – The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Oct 9 in Oslo, with much of the attention centred on how US President Donald Trump, eager to win it himself, will react.
得主将于当地时间上午11点（格林威治标准时间0900）在奥斯陆诺贝尔研究院揭晓。
The laureate will be revealed at 11am local time (0900 GMT) at the Nobel Institute in Oslo.
在一个饱受冲突和危机蹂躏的世界里，287名个人和组织被提名角逐2026年度这一最高外交与人道主义荣誉。
In a world ravaged by conflicts and crises, 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the ultimate diplomatic and humanitarian accolade in 2026.
他们的身份将保密50年，让诺贝尔奖观察家们只能猜测谁将获选。
Their identities are kept secret for 50 years, leaving Nobel watchers guessing about who will get the nod.
专家们唯一达成的共识是获奖者不会是特朗普，尽管他声称——但未提供证据——已结束多达八场战争，并断言自己是最有资格的候选人。
The only thing experts agree on is that the winner will not be Trump, despite his – unsubstantiated – claims of having ended up to eight wars, and his assertion that he is the most deserving candidate.
“他们有不给像我这样的人颁奖的名声……我认为那将是对他们的巨大损害，”特朗普于10月7日表示。“我这话不是出于轻蔑。”
“They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me... and I think it would be a great discredit to them,” Trump said on Oct 7. “And I’m not saying that out of scorn.”
在奥斯陆，这位美国总统普遍被认为因对伊朗的战争、在格陵兰岛等地的领土扩张野心、对移民的强硬立场，以及对多边主义和媒体的攻击而丧失了资格。
In Oslo, the US president is generally considered disqualified due to his war against Iran, his territorial expansion ambitions as in Greenland, his hard line on migrants, and his attacks on multilateralism and the media.
无论挪威诺贝尔委员会选择谁，其决定都可能被解读为对这位共和党亿万富翁的直接或间接批评。
Regardless of who the Norwegian Nobel Committee chooses, its pick may be interpreted as direct or indirect criticism of the Republican billionaire.
奥斯陆和平研究所所长哈康·耶尔洛表示，考虑到白宫可能出现的反应，委员会必须自问诺贝尔奖是否有让获奖者遭受“弊大于利”的风险。
The head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Haakon Gjerlow, said the committee must ask itself whether the Nobel risks causing the recipient more “harm rather than good”, given the reactions that could emerge from the White House.
2025年，该奖项授予了委内瑞拉反对派领导人玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多，这一选择普遍被认为令特朗普满意。
In 2025, the prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice generally considered palatable to Trump.
马查多甚至将她的诺贝尔金质奖章送给了他，认为在俘获马杜罗总统后，特朗普理应获得此奖——尽管她未能以此换取他的政治支持。
Machado even gave him her Nobel gold medal, judging he deserved it after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro – though she failed to obtain his political backing in exchange.
据法新社分析，自1901年以来，诺贝尔委员会选择和平奖得主的理由已发生重大变化，从促进和平转向捍卫人权，这一趋势在冷战期间逐渐增强。与此同时，诺贝尔委员会表示不受外部压力影响。
The reasons given by the Nobel Committee for choosing Peace Prize winners have changed substantially since 1901, shifting from promoting peace to defending human rights in a trend that gained momentum during the Cold War, according to an AFP analysis. The Nobel committee meanwhile says it is not swayed by external pressures.
“我们当然必须讨论这一点，但这并不意味着它会影响会议室内的讨论和最终做出的决定，”委员会秘书克里斯蒂安·贝格·哈普维肯对法新社表示。共识，还是非共识？
“Of course we have to discuss it, but it’s not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out,” the secretary of the committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP. Consensus, or not?
专家表示，选择一位拥有广泛共识的获奖者，例如致力于保护儿童或从事人道主义工作的个人或组织，不太可能激怒特朗普。
Choosing a laureate who enjoys broad consensus, such as an individual or organisation working to protect children or humanitarian efforts, would be less likely to stoke Trump’s ire, experts say.
这可能包括“救助儿童会”慈善机构和乌克兰的米科拉·库列巴，他致力于争取被非法带往俄罗斯的儿童返回——这一事业深得特朗普妻子梅拉尼娅的关心。
That could include the Save the Children charity and Ukraine’s Mykola Kuleba, who campaigns for the return of kids illegally taken to Russia – a cause close to the heart of Trump’s wife Melania.
苏丹的“紧急响应室”（ERR），一个由志愿者组成的庞大网络，他们冒着生命危险帮助面临战争与饥饿双重威胁的人们，也可能成为获奖者。
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing the double threat of war and hunger, could also be a laureate.
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所所长卡里姆·哈加格表示，ERR是他心目中获得该奖项的首选。
The head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Karim Haggag, said the ERR was his favourite for the prize.
“遗憾的是，苏丹的冲突已被遗忘。这是一场真正反映出巨大人道主义苦难的冲突，”他对法新社表示。但委员会也可能选择一位让特朗普不快的获奖者。
“The conflict in Sudan, unfortunately, has been forgotten. And this is a conflict that has really reflected tremendous humanitarian suffering,” he told AFP. But the committee may also choose a laureate that could rub Trump the wrong way.
获奖人选可能包括联合国巴勒斯坦被占领土问题特别报告员弗朗西斯卡·阿尔巴内塞、教皇利奥十四世、致力于新闻自由事业的保护记者委员会，以及国际刑事法院和国际法院等国际司法机构。
That could include the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, press freedoms with an award to the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies such as the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.
继诺贝尔和平奖之后，2026年的诺贝尔奖颁奖季将于10月12日以经济学奖的揭晓而落下帷幕。
After the Nobel Peace Prize, the 2026 award season winds up on Oct 12 with the economics prize.
本周早些时候，医学、物理学、化学及文学奖的获奖者已在斯德哥尔摩揭晓。其中，加拿大诗人安妮·卡森因对希腊神话与古代文化进行富有现代气息的重新诠释而于10月8日荣获文学奖。
Earlier this week, the prizes for medicine, physics, chemistry and literature were announced in Stockholm, with the latter going to Canadian poet Anne Carson on Oct 8 for her modern twists on Greek mythology and antiquity.
每位诺贝尔奖得主都将获得一份证书、一枚金质奖章以及120万美元（约合150万新加坡元）的奖金，这些奖项将于12月10日正式颁发。
Each Nobel prize comes with a diploma, a gold medal and a cheque for US$1.2 million (S$1.5 million), to be presented on Dec 10.