
席执行官凯利·奥特伯格此刻一定在暗暗庆幸。
Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg must be pinching himself.
短短几天之内,这家公司的处境堪忧的“星舰”航天器获得了美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的重新认可;曾笼罩其737 MAX客机的软件故障问题也已解决;公司还与工会化的工程师们达成了劳资协议,避免了痛苦的罢工;其国防业务更因获得一份价值超过200亿美元的美国海军隐形战斗机制造合同而重获活力。
In the span of just a few days, the company’s beleaguered Starliner spacecraft was given new life by NASA, a software glitch casting a cloud over its 737 Max airliner was lifted, it reached a labor agreement with unionized engineers to avoid a painful strike, and its defense business got a shot in the arm with a more than $20 billion contract to build a stealth fighter jet for the US Navy.
这真是一波令人难以置信的连胜。其中最大的成就无疑是击败了竞争对手诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司,赢得了海军的隐形战斗机项目。而此前一年,波音还曾击败洛克希德·马丁公司,拿下了美国空军F-47隐形战机的合同。这家一度被排除在隐形战机平台之外的公司如今已拥有两个项目,成功扭转了与竞争对手的局势。这些项目有望改变波音问题频发的国防、航天与安全部门的命运,并在未来数十年推动其盈利增长。
That’s an incredible run. The biggest feat, by far, was beating out rival Northrop Grumman Corp. for the Navy’s stealth fighter, which comes on the heels of it scooping up the contract for the Air Force’s F-47 stealth jet last year over Lockheed Martin Corp. The company, which had been locked out of the stealth platforms, now has two, turning the tables on its rivals. These have the potential to reverse the fortunes of Boeing’s troubled defense, space and security unit, driving earnings growth for decades to come.
这两个隐形战机项目之间,本应产生设计、工程、供应链和生产方面的多重协同效应。但另一方面,波音如今也面临巨大压力:必须在控制成本、确保按时交付的同时,迅速提升相关能力——而这正是该部门过去一直难以解决的问题。如今,“执行力”必将成为波音的核心关键词:如果无法按时、按预算或低于预算完成这些项目,那么上述所有胜利都将毫无意义。
There should be all kinds of design, engineering, supply-chain and production synergies between the two stealth programs. The downside is the tremendous pressure Boeing now faces to ramp up those capabilities while keeping costs down and meeting production deadlines, something the unit has struggled with in the past. The buzzword around Boeing must now be execution: These wins will be meaningless if it can’t drive the projects across the finish line on schedule and at or under budget.
美国国防部已给予波音公司一个机会,以证明其此前遭遇的困境——包括那笔最终沦为无底洞的新“空军一号”总统专机制造合同——已成为过去。投资者从过往项目中已痛苦地意识到,这类新合同存在诸多潜在风险,其中包括T-7A“红鹰”训练机、MQ-25无人空中加油机以及KC-46空中加油机项目。这些项目均采用固定价格合同,但由于波音公司未能按时完工,且最终成本远超预期,导致公司蒙受亏损。
The Department of Defense has given Boeing the opportunity to provethat its troubles, including the contract to build a new Air Force One presidential aircraft that turned into a money pit, are behind it. A lot can go wrong with these new contracts as investors have learned painfully from past programs, including the T-7A Red Hawk training aircraft, the MQ-25 pilotless, air-refueling plane and the KC-46 air-refueling tanker aircraft. Those programs had fixed-price contracts that resulted in Boeing losing money after the company ran over schedule and costs ended up much higher than expected.
从2022年至2025年,波音的国防、航天与安全部门因各项目的周期性减值计提,累计产生了近110亿美元的运营亏损。不过,该部门在今年上半年成功止住了亏损,并勉强实现了2.18亿美元的运营利润。这一成绩很大程度上要归功于奥尔特伯格:他于2024年8月接任首席执行官后,着手改变公司的制造文化、优化供应链,并推动签订更明智的合同。
Boeing’s defense, space and security unit piled up operating losses of almost $11 billion from 2022 through 2025 after periodic write downs on its different programs. The unit stopped the bleeding in the first half of this year and eked out an operating gain of $218 million. A lot of the credit for this goes to Ortberg, who took over as CEO in August 2024 and went to work changing the company’s manufacturing culture, improving its supply chain and negotiating smarter contracts.

奥尔特伯格已承诺避免采用固定价格协议。目前,海军战斗机合同的具体细节尚未公布,但预计将与F-47项目类似,采取成本加成模式,并设置激励措施和费用条款,以防止工程在成本和时间上失控。波音公司必须整合资源,确保这两个关键国防项目的顺利推进。正因如此,在先前提议被否决后,上周与波音工会工程师和技术工人达成协议才显得尤为重要。
Ortberg has vowed to steer away from fixed-price agreements. The details of the contract for the Navy’s fighter aren’t available yet, but it’s likely to be similar to the F-47, which is a cost-plus deal, with incentives and fees to keep the work from ballooning out of control both on cost and time. The company will have to marshal its resources to ensure work on these two key defense programs goes smoothly. This is why finding agreement last week with Boeing’s unionized engineers and technical workers was so important, after an earlier offer was voted down.
“星际客机”项目也是导致防务部门出现亏损的原因之一。该项目原本就已进度滞后且预算超支,后来在搭载两名宇航员布奇·威尔莫尔和苏尼·威廉姆斯前往国际空间站的途中又出现了发动机故障。NASA最终决定不冒险让两名宇航员乘坐“星际客机”返回地球,原本计划仅持续八天的太空之旅也因此变成了长达九个月的漫长历程。更雪上加霜的是,NASA最终决定让两名宇航员搭乘竞争对手太空探索技术公司研发的“龙”飞船返回地球。
Starliner also contributed to the losses at the defense unit. The spacecraft was already behind schedule and over budget when it encountered engine problems while carrying two astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station. NASA decided not to risk returning the two astronauts home on Starliner, and their planned eight-day trip in space devolved into a nine-month odyssey. Insult was added to injury when NASA decided to bring the two astronauts home on Dragon, the spacecraft built by rival Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
上周,NASA为陷入困境的“星际客机”项目提供了转机:同意最早于12月安排该飞船执行一次无人任务前往国际空间站,并从2028年起再开展最多五次载人任务。不过该飞船还需通过认证,才能搭载由波音与洛克希德·马丁合资成立的联合发射联盟公司研发的新型“火神半人马座”火箭升空。
NASA last week threw the embattled Starliner a lifeline by agreeing to use the spacecraft to fly an uncrewed mission to the ISS as early as December, and then operate as many as five crewed missions beginning in 2028. The spacecraft will need to be certified to fly on the new Vulcan Centaur rocket built by United Launch Alliance, which is a Boeing-Lockheed joint venture.
这对波音的太空业务而言是个好消息,不过该业务恐怕仍会面临诸多挑战。奥特伯格应当考虑将这一业务独立出来或整体出售。如今时代已发生翻天覆地的变化:过去像波音这样的老牌航天企业曾成功将宇航员送上月球,并凭借NASA及国防部的订单主导整个市场;如今随着市场逐渐转向商业发射与卫星网络服务,这些老牌企业正被以SpaceX为首的竞争对手远远甩在身后。
This is good news for Boeing’s space program, although it’s likely to continue to struggle. Ortberg should either spin out or sell this business. Times have changed radically since legacy space companies such as Boeing sent astronauts to the moon and dominated a market based mostly on NASA and defense department contracts. Legacy space companies are now falling hopelessly behind competitors, led by SpaceX, as the market turns to more commercial launches and satellite networks.

对于波音的投资者及其航空客户而言,另一个好消息是:美国联邦航空管理局于10月2日判定,737 Max系列飞机存在的软件故障并不构成安全隐患。这意味着该系列中体型最大的737 Max-10机型不会因此推迟获得认证,而刚刚取得认证的Max-7机型也能继续顺利交付。
Boeing investors and its airline customers will also be celebrating the Federal Aviation Administration’s determination on Oct. 2 that a software glitch on the 737 Max aircraft isn’t a safety issue. This means that certification of the 737 Max-10, the largest version of this plane, won’t be delayed much if at all, and that the Max-7, which just gained certification, can continue to be delivered.
过去一周对波音而言可谓喜讯连连;如今奥特伯格必须采取切实行动,确保公司实现长期发展。
The past week brought a bounty of good news for Boeing; Ortberg must now execute in a fashion that translates to long-term success.