
根据David Herbling的报道,肯尼亚中央银行维持基准利率不变,政策制定者正在观望伊朗战争引发的能源冲击对经济和通胀的影响。
Kenya’s central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged as policymakers took a wait-and-see approach in assessing what impact energy shocks stemming from the Iran war will have on the economy and inflation.
货币政策委员会在周三发布的电子邮件声明中表示,利率仍保持在8.75%,这与彭博社调查中五位经济学家中的三位预测一致,另外两位则预计利率将上调25个基点。
The monetary policy committee left the rate unchanged at 8.75%, Governor Kamau Thugge said in an emailed statement on Wednesday. That matched the forecast of three out of five economists in a Bloomberg survey. The other two expected a 25 basis points hike.
Thugge行长指出,需要继续监测全球油价走势及其对通胀的二次影响,以及全球经济和国内经济的其他发展动态。
“The MPC noted that there is need to continue monitoring the evolution of global oil prices and any second-round effects on inflation, as well as other developments in the global and domestic economies,” Thugge said in the statement.
其他非洲中央银行对中东冲突引发的通胀压力采取了不同的应对措施:加纳、博茨瓦纳、埃及和摩洛哥等国保持借贷成本不变;南非上调了利率;尼日利亚和赞比亚则降低了利率。
Other African central banks have adopted a mixed approach toward inflationary pressures arising from the Middle East conflict. Borrowing costs were recently left unchanged in countries including Ghana, Botswana, Egypt and Morocco, raised in South Africa and cut in Nigeria and Zambia.
肯尼亚的年通胀率从上个月的6.6%升至9月份的6.8%,核心通胀率(央行首选的通胀指标)达到4%,为该东非国家开始监测这一指标以来的最高水平。自4月以来,通胀率已突破央行目标区间的5%中点。
Kenya’s annual inflation ticked up to 6.8% in September from 6.6% the month before. Core inflation, the central bank’s preferred gauge of underlying price growth, was at 4% — the highest since the East African nation began tracking the metric.
波动的能源价格、天气相关冲击和全球供应侧挑战加剧了价格压力。
The inflation rate has breached the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target range, where Thugge prefers to firmly anchor price-growth expectations, since April. Volatile energy prices, weather-related shocks and global supply-side challenges threaten to add to the pricing pressures.
央行将今年的经济增长预期从4.9%上调至5%,并对2027年的增长预期维持在5.3%。
The central bank raised its economic growth expectations for this year to 5% from 4.9% and kept its forecast for 2027 at 5.3%.