记者 中道隆志、浦中大雅 日本两大券商预计，该国股市反弹将延续至2027年甚至更久，尽管人工智能投资潜在逆转构成主要威胁。
Japan’s two largest securities firms expect the country’s stock market rally to extend well into 2027, even as a potential reversal in artificial intelligence investment looms as the primary threat.
“市场、股价和企业盈利都受到AI投资的强力驱动，”野村控股首席执行官奥田健太郎周四在东京举行的日经活动上表示。“如果对AI的情绪发生转变，该趋势逆转，我认为这可能构成重大风险。”较小竞争对手大和证券集团首席执行官荻野明彦在同一小组讨论中发表了类似言论。
“Markets, stock prices and corporate earnings are all being driven very strongly by investment in AI,” Nomura Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Kentaro Okuda said at a Nikkei event in Tokyo on Thursday. “If sentiment toward AI were to shift and that trend went into reverse, I think that could pose a significant risk.”Akihiko Ogino, CEO of smaller rival Daiwa Securities Group Inc., made similar remarks on the same panel.
两位高管均预测日经225指数将达到80,000点，但时间表不同：荻野明彦将目标定在今年，而奥田健太郎预计年底指数将达75,000点左右，并在2027年底突破80,000点。该指数周四收于69,042.11点。
Both executives projected the Nikkei 225 Stock Average would reach 80,000, though their paths diverged: Ogino set that target for this year, while Okuda placed the index at about 75,000 by year-end and above 80,000 by end-2027. The gauge closed at 69,042.11 on Thursday.
他们的言论反映出对日本股市近四年繁荣的信心，在AI投资、公司治理改革和重返通胀的推动下，日股交易价格接近历史高位。这波反弹也提振了两家券商的盈利，双双在上一财年录得创纪录利润。
Their remarks reflect confidence in a near four-year boom in Japanese equities, which are trading close to a record as AI investment, corporate governance reforms and a return to inflation encourage investors. The rally has also fueled earnings at the two securities firms, with both posting record profits last fiscal year.
荻野明彦表示，预计日经指数将在2027年底达到88,000点，且日元兑美元汇率在该期间将维持在160左右。奥田健太郎预计年底日元汇率将在156左右，随后随着地缘政治担忧缓解逐步走强。
Ogino said he expects the Nikkei to reach 88,000 toward the end of 2027, and that the yen would trade at about 160 per dollar through that period. Okuda projected the Japanese currency at about 156 per dollar at year-end, with a gradual strengthening thereafter as geopolitical concerns ease.
荻野明彦将日元近期从过度疲软中回升归因于联合干预、美国财长贝森特呼吁日本央行加息，以及央行9月加息。他将利率上升描述为反映经济增长的“积极发展”。
Ogino attributed the yen’s recent recovery from excessive weakness to joint intervention, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s calls for the Bank of Japan to raise rates, and the central bank’s September hike. He described rising rates as a “positive development” that reflected economic growth.
奥田表示，海外投资者对日本仍保持浓厚兴趣，迄今为止加息带来的负面影响尚不显著。他还补充说，中东和乌克兰的冲突可能会持续，可能推高能源价格并扰乱供应链。
Okuda said overseas investors retained strong interest in Japan and that the negative impact of higher rates had not been significant so far. He added that conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine may be prolonged, potentially pushing up energy prices and disrupting supply chains.
两位高管都指出，近期美国等国出现的公众对人工智能和数据中心的反对，可能导致该领域投资下降。
Both executives pointed to the possibility that recent public opposition to AI and data centers in countries including the US would lead to a drop in investment in the sector.
“最大的担忧是市场参与者将如何回应，”荻野说。“他们可能在极短时间内大幅改变看法，导致资产价格剧烈波动。这些市场波动可能将风险的影响放大到远超实体经济实际状况的程度。我认为这是最大的挑战。”
“The biggest concern is how market participants will respond,” Ogino said. “They can change their views dramatically over a very short period of time, causing sharp swings in asset prices. Those market moves can amplify the impact of a risk far beyond what is happening in the real economy. I think that is the biggest challenge.”