如今，共和党的超级政治行动委员会正大量投放广告，目标正是那些以往一直稳属共和党阵营的州；同时，对于看似毫无胜算的竞选活动，这些委员会则纷纷撤下相关广告。目前特朗普总统的支持率正处于历史低位，但他仍出现在美国一些最倾向共和党的州里。
Republican super PACs are flooding the airwaves in once-safe states, and pulling down ads for races that look like lost causes. President Trump, his approval ratings near record lows, is popping up in some of America's reddest states.
为何此事值得关注：尽管多项民调显示民主党有望在11月3日的选举中大获全胜，但这些预测未必准确。不过资金流向——即各竞选团队及政治行动委员会如何支配资金——往往能反映真实情况；空军一号留下的航迹同样如此。
Why it matters: The polls showing Democrats headed toward a blue wave on Nov. 3 may not be quite right. But money — and how campaigns and PACs spend it — rarely lies. Nor do the contrails of Air Force One.
- 共和党人正手忙脚乱之际，民主党人却开始削减那些他们认为稳操胜券的选区的竞选开支，比如北卡罗来纳州的参议院选举。
• While Republicans are scrambling, Democrats are cutting some spending in contests they think are in the bag, such as North Carolina's Senate race.
- 没人愿意为一场毫无悬念的胜利投入过多资金，正如没人愿意在注定失败的竞选上浪费资源一样。
• No one wants to pay too much for a landslide, just as no one wants to throw good money after bad.
共和党人被迫采取行动他们不得不向德克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿与民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科之间的参议院竞选投入超过1亿美元的资金；此外，为保住阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州及俄亥俄州的参议院席位，他们还需再筹集数百万美元。
Republicans have been forced to pour well over $100 million into Ken Paxton's Senate race in Texas against Democrat James Talarico, and to plead for millions more to defend Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- 这堪称政治领域的“急救措施”：共和党竞选人员不得不做出类似战场军医才会做的艰难抉择——全力挽救有望获胜的竞选，而对注定失败的竞选只能听天由命。
• Call it political triage. Republican operatives are making the kind of hard decisions that would be familiar to any battlefield medic: Save the wounded, and say a prayer for the lost.
最新动态：周三，特朗普前往圣安东尼奥，试图为帕克斯顿拉票——这是他在不到一周时间内第二次造访德克萨斯州，该州在2024年大选中以14个百分点的优势支持了特朗普。
Driving the news: Trump was in San Antonio on Wednesday to try to boost Paxton — his second trip in less than a week to Texas, a state he won by 14 points in 2024.
- 过去一周里，特朗普还先后前往俄克拉荷马州、阿拉巴马州、俄亥俄州及内布拉斯加州开展竞选活动。本周末，他计划再次前往阿拉巴马州，观看佐治亚大学与阿拉巴马大学的橄榄球赛。
• During the past week the president also has campaigned in Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska. He's planning another trip to Alabama this weekend for the Georgia-Alabama football game.
- 副总统万斯本周也现身阿拉斯加州，本周末他将前往俄亥俄州。
• Vice President Vance showed up in Alaska this week, and will be in Ohio this weekend.
各方言论：目前来看，共和党人的举措更多是呼吁本党忠实支持者前往投票站，而非试图争取新选民。
What they're saying: Republicans' efforts now appear more focused on calling for party loyalists to show up at the polls than on persuading new voters.
- “每当他们投放广告时，目标对象始终都是那些倾向共和党的红色州，”负责协助民主党赢得参议院控制权的核心外部组织“参议院多数派政治行动委员会”主席J.B.波尔斯说道。
• "Every time they up a buy [ads] on their end, it's always in the red states," said J.B. Poersch, president of Senate Majority PAC, the Democrats' main outside group working to win the Senate.
- “一些外部[共和党]团体，如参议院领导基金等，将不得不斟酌资金最适合花在何处，”参议员约翰·科宁（德克萨斯州共和党人）表示，他在共和党初选中败给了帕克斯顿。
• "Some of these outside [GOP] groups such as the Senate Leadership Fund and others are going to have to figure out where their money is best spent," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the GOP primary to Paxton.
- “看来资金已经开始转移了。”
• "It looks like the money has already started to shift."
聚焦：在上周五退出北卡罗来纳州（特朗普以3个百分点优势获胜）后，SLF——共和党主要的参议院超级政治行动委员会——在向来深红的堪萨斯州新投入了1400万美元。
Zoom in: After pulling out of North Carolina (which Trump won by 3 points) last Friday, the SLF — Republicans' main Senate super PAC — put a fresh $14 million in normally deep-red Kansas.
- 本周，它向南卡罗来纳州（特朗普以18个百分点优势获胜）拨款500万美元作为“保险”，助力共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆。
• This week, it sent a $5 million "insurance policy" to South Carolina (which Trump won by 18 points) to boost Republican Sen. Darline Graham. The other side:
另一方：民主党正在撤下部分广告，但仅限于民调已向有利于他们一方固化的州。他们的支出调整反映的是信心，而非担忧。
Democrats are pulling down some advertising, but in states where polling has solidified in their favor. Their spending moves reflect confidence, not concern.
- 参议院共和党人PAC认输撤出北卡罗来纳州后，参议院民主党团体也决定在那里停播广告。
• After the Senate Republicans' PAC cried uncle and pulled out of North Carolina, the Senate Democrats' group decided to go dark there as well.
- 民主党团体在北卡罗来纳州的一项广告预订——实际上位于南卡罗来纳州的格林维尔媒体市场——被盟友团体“全新起点南卡PAC”抢走，后者将利用这段时间攻击格雷厄姆。
• One of Democratic group's ad reservations for North Carolina — which was actually in the Greenville market in South Carolina — was gobbled up by an allied group, Fresh Start SC PAC, which will use the time to attack Graham. Between the lines:
言外之意：众议院竞选中也存在分诊式竞选，但目前尚不明显。
There's triage campaigning in House races as well, but it's not as pronounced — yet.
- 共和党的国会领导基金在内布拉斯加州第2国会选区撤下了110万美元广告，该选区是哈里斯在2024年赢下的三个共和党现任议员席位之一。
• The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund pulled down $1.1 million in advertising in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, one of three GOP-held seats where former Vice President Harris won in 2024.
- 民主党随之跟进，众议院多数党PAC取消了为该选战预留的110万美元。双方似乎都认同，共和党人布林克·哈丁没有明显路径赢下退休的共和党众议员唐·培根留下的空缺席位。
• Democrats followed suit, with House Majority PAC canceling the $1.1 million it had reserved for the race. Both sides appear to agree that there's no obvious path for Republican Brinker Harding to win the seat left open by retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon.
- 在圣地亚哥地区的一个众议院选区，民主党团体在重新划分选区后哈里斯本会赢下的席位上撤下了20万美元广告。
• In a San Diego-area House district, the Democratic group pulled down $200,000 in ads in a redistricted seat Harris would have won.
共和党坚称，他们的资金重新分配并不意味着承认众议院或参议院已输掉。
Republicans insist that their reallocation of funds doesn't mean they're admitting that the House or the Senate are lost.
- 双方都不争辩的一件事是：与多数党领袖约翰·图恩（R-南达科他州）关系密切的参议院领导基金（SLF）资金雄厚。
• One thing neither side disputes: The Senate Leadership Fund, which is closely associated with Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is well capitalized.
- 这使其能够在红州为候选人提供支持——在更有利的政治环境下，这本是不必要的。在德克萨斯州，其子公司之一在17天内花费了1.31亿美元——日均超过770万美元。
• That allows it to shore up candidates in red states, which wouldn't be necessary in a better political environment. In Texas, one of its subsidiaries spent $131 million in 17 days — more than $7.7 million a day.
- 该组织宣布为阿拉斯加竞选再投入400万美元，使其在那里为参议员丹·沙利文的总投入达到2100万美元，沙利文面临前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉的挑战。
• The group has announced another $4 million for the Alaska race, bringing its total there to $21 million for Sen. Dan Sullivan, who's being challenged by former Rep. Mary Peltola.
- 在缅因州，它又预留了800万美元，为参议员苏珊·柯林斯的总投入达到5000万美元，柯林斯正与民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊展开角逐。
• In Maine, it has reserved another $8 million, for a total of $50 million for Sen. Susan Collins, who's in a battle with Democrat Troy Jackson.
- 在密歇根州，它追加200万美元，使前众议员迈克·罗杰斯的总支持额达到5300万美元，罗杰斯将与民主党人阿卜杜勒·赛义德对决。
• In Michigan, it's putting in another $2 million, for a total of $53 million for former Rep. Mike Rogers in his race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
- 在俄亥俄州，它再投入1400万美元，使参议员乔恩·赫斯特德的总支持额达到9300万美元，赫斯特德面临前参议员谢罗德·布朗（D）的挑战。所有目光聚焦佐治亚州。
• And in Ohio, it's spending another $14 million, bringing the total to $93 million for Sen. John Husted, who faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). All eyes are on Georgia.
SLF宣布在那里初始投入4400万美元支持共和党人迈克·柯林斯，但民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫保持着健康的领先优势
SLF announced an initial investment of $44 million there to back Republican Mike Collins, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has a healthy lead
核心看点：共和党可以将糟糕的民调视为噪音，或归咎于自由派偏见。
The bottom line: Republicans can dismiss bad polls as noise, or the result of liberal bias.
- 但他们的担忧显而易见，体现在他们在堪萨斯、南卡罗来纳和德克萨斯等红州投放的猛烈攻击性广告中。
• But their concern is evident in their thundering attack ads in red states such as Kansas, South Carolina and Texas.