众议院民主党主要超级政治行动委员会正在削减在多个选区的开支，尽管全国大势对该党有利，但民主党在这些选区一直难以取得进展。
House Democrats' main super PAC is winding down its spending in several races where the party has struggled to make headway despite national trends working in their favor Why it matters:
重要性：民主党赢得倾向共和党浓厚选区的雄心，正撞上漫长且昂贵的中期选举竞选尾声资源有限的现实。
Democrats' ambitions of winning heavily Republican districts are running into the reality of finite resources at the end of a long and expensive midterm campaign.
- 民主党国会竞选委员会（DCCC）及其对应的超级政治行动委员会“众议院多数党政治行动委员会”（HMP）在本周期难以跟上共和党对手惊人的筹款步伐。
• The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and its corresponding super PAC, House Majority PAC, have struggled to keep pace with their GOP counterparts' monster fundraising this cycle.
- 共和党还拥有资金雄厚的外部团体网络这一额外优势，即特朗普总统的“让美国再次伟大公司”（MAGA Inc.）和埃隆·马斯克的“美国政治行动委员会”（America PAC）。
• Republicans also have the bonus advantage of a network of cash-rich outside groups, namely President Trump's MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk's America PAC. Driving the news:
新闻驱动因素：据AdImpact和一位知情人士透露，HMP本周撤回了在三个倾向共和党选区的开支。
HMP pulled back its spending this week in three Republican-leaning districts, according to AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter. TN-05:
田纳西州第5选区（TN-05）：民主党曾对其明星招募对象、哥伦比亚市市长查兹·莫尔德充满信心，直到重新划分选区使该选区更加偏红，且陷入困境的众议员安迪·奥格尔斯（共和党-田纳西州）在初选中败给了前州农业专员查理·哈彻。
- 截至周一，HMP已将该选区的广告预订从本月早些时候的近160万美元缩减至略超50万美元。
Democrats were bullish about their star recruit, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, until redistricting made the district redder and embattled Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) lost his primary to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher • HMP has drawn down its ad reservations in the district from nearly $1.6 million this month to a little over $500,000 as of Monday.
- 特朗普在2024年以21个百分点的优势赢得新划定的第5选区。《库克政治报告》将该竞争评为“稳固共和党”。
• Trump carried the newly reconstituted 5th district by 21 percentage points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the race as "solidly Republican."
面临与田纳西州类似的局面，民主党曾看好击败陷入丑闻的众议员科里·米尔斯（共和党-佛罗里达州）的几率，后者在初选中败给了前地方新闻主播瑞安·以利亚。
Facing a situation similar to Tennessee, Democrats liked their odds of unseating scandal-tarred Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who lost his primary to former local news anchor Ryan Elijah.
- 与莫尔德一样，民主党候选人贝尔·道尔顿是前美国国家航空航天局（NASA）幕僚长，是DCCC重点招募的对象，并入选该委员会备受青睐的“红转蓝”计划。
• Like Molder, Democratic candidate Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff, was a top DCCC recruit and is part of the committee's coveted "Red to Blue" program.
- HMP周一基本将在该选区的投资减半，将广告预订从390万美元削减至仅195万美元。
• HMP essentially halved its investment in the district on Monday, cutting ad reservations from $3.9 million to just $1.95 million.
- 库克将该选区评为“共和党很有优势”，尽管民主党众议院竞选委员会（DCCC）周二发布的一项民调显示，两位候选人支持率均为 45%，打成平手。
• Cook rates the race as "likely Republican," though a poll released by the DCCC on Tuesday had the two candidates tied at 45% each.
当劳伦·博伯特众议员（共和党-科罗拉多州）代表该选区时，它曾是民主党的首要攻坚目标；自从她放弃该席位、杰夫·赫德众议员（共和党-科罗拉多州）去年就职以来，该席位对民主党而言已成为更艰巨的任务。
top target for Democrats when Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) represented it, the seat has become a heavier lift for the party since she abandoned it and Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) took office last year.
- 民主党候选人德韦恩·罗梅罗是一家房地产公司的首席执行官兼退伍军人，党内操盘手认为，他未能建立起邻近第 5 选区杰西卡·基林所展现的那种势头。
• Democrat Dwayne Romero, a real estate company CEO and Army veteran, is seen by party operatives as having failed to build the kind of momentum shown by Jessica Killin in the neighboring 5th District.
- HMP 对该选区的投入也减半，从上周的 210 多万美元降至周一的 110 万美元以下。
• HMP halved its investment in this district too, from more than $2.1 million last week to less than $1.1 million as of Monday.
言外之意：该组织还在一些选区进行了部分削减——它称之为“微调”——这些选区民主党难以获得进展，但仍看到一线希望。
Between the lines: The group has also made partial cuts — what it calls "shaves" — in districts where Democrats have struggled to gain traction but still see a glimmer of hope.
- 其中包括亚利桑那州第 2 选区，现任众议员伊莱·克雷恩（共和党-亚利桑那州）正与纳瓦霍族前主席乔纳森·内兹展开再次对决，库克将该竞争评为“共和党很有优势”。
• That includes Arizona's 2nd District, where Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) is locked in a rematch with former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez in a race Cook rates as "likely Republican."
- HMP 还从得克萨斯州第 23 选区撤回了部分资金，在那里，右翼油管博主布兰登·埃雷拉作为共和党候选人，正面对民主党律师凯蒂·帕迪拉·斯托特，该竞争同样被评为“共和党很有优势”。
• HMP has also taken some money out of Texas' 23rd District, where Republican Brandon Herrera, a right-wing YouTuber, is facing Democratic lawyer Katy Padilla Stout in another race rated "likely Republican." Yes, but:
但是：一些 HMP 的分流调整发生在它们对民主党候选人获胜充满信心的选区。
Some HMP triages are in districts where they feel confident the Democratic candidate will prevail.
- 其中包括格雷格·兰兹曼众议员（民主党-俄亥俄州）和克里斯滕·麦克唐纳·里维特众议员（民主党-密歇根州）的选区，库克将这两场竞争均评为“民主党很有优势”。
• That includes Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), both of whose races are rated "likely Democratic" by Cook.
- 该超级政治行动委员会还在即将卸任的达雷尔·伊萨众议员（共和党-加利福尼亚州）和唐·贝肯众议员（共和党-内布拉斯加州）的选区收缩了投入，民主党对翻红这两个席位越发看好。
• The PAC has also pulled back in the districts of retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), which Democrats are increasingly bullish about flipping.
资金流向这些削减腾出的资金被引导至党方视为更核心战场的选区——包括一些特朗普在 2024 年以两位数优势拿下、民主党依然认为可赢的席位。
The money from these cuts is funneled to districts the party views as more core battlegrounds — including some seats Trump carried by double digits in 2024 that Democrats nevertheless view as winnable.
- HMP 在过去两天里，在近二十个选区的现有投资基础上，又追加了至少 470 万美元。
• HMP has added at least $4.7 million to its existing investments in nearly two dozen districts over the last two days.
他们怎么说：蓝狗行动的高级顾问菲尔·加德纳——该中间派组织支持多尔顿——对 Axios 表示，针对佛罗里达州的削减，“我不确定 HMP 当时是怎么想的。”• “党内其他人并没有放弃这个席位，”他说，并引用了 DCCC 的民调以及众议院少数党党鞭凯瑟琳·克拉克（民主党-马萨诸塞州）计划于周三前往该地助选。
What they're saying: Phil Gardner, a senior adviser for Blue Dog Action — a centrist group backing Dalton — told Axios of the cuts in Florida, "I'm not sure what HMP was thinking here." • "The rest of the party is not triaging this seat," he said, citing the DCCC's poll and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark's (D-Mass.) plans to campaign there on Wednesday.
- 加德纳表示，他同意 “HMP 本周期 95% 的决定”，但认为 “他们往缅因州第 2 选区砸这么多钱，却让党内最优秀的新人之一在佛罗里达州自生自灭，简直疯了。”
• Gardner said he agrees with "95% of the decisions HMP's made this cycle," but that it is "bonkers they're dumping so much money" into Maine's 2nd District "while leaving one of the party's best recruits high and dry in Florida."
- 蓝狗行动在初选中花费近 50 万美元帮助多尔顿获胜，但迄今尚未在大选中投入任何资金。
• Blue Dog Action spent nearly $500,000 to help Dalton win the primary, but it hasn't yet invested any money in the general election. The bottom line:
底线：“我们专注于夺回众议院控制权，”HMP 发言人 CJ·沃恩克回应加德纳批评时对 Axios 表示。
"We're focused on taking back the House," CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for HMP, told Axios in response to Gardner's criticism.
- 加德纳说：“我相信他们会重新考虑，并在最后一周做出正确决定。只要大家齐心协力，贝尔能赢，也能守住这个席位。”
• Said Gardner: "I'm confident they'll rethink and make the right decision for the final week. Bale can win and hold that seat with everyone's help."