在今年的国会选举中，共和党本应拥有两大优势：选区划分（即“地图优势”）和资金优势。然而，这两个优势似乎都未能帮助他们避免在中期选举中遭遇惨败。尽管共和党在选区划分改革中取得了胜利，并且在参议院的竞选中处于有利地位，但民调显示他们在两院中的支持率都处于劣势。此外，最新的筹款数据也让保守派人士对共和党候选人能否在选举最后几周通过大量广告来弥补这些差距感到失望。
REPUBLICANS WERE supposed to have two big advantages in this year’s congressional elections: maps and money. Neither appears to be protecting them from a midterm bloodbath. Despite winning this cycle’s House gerrymandering war and benefiting from a red-hued Senate battleground, polls suggest that Republicans currently trail in both chambers. And new fundraising data should dent conservative hopes that the party’s candidates could close these deficits by swamping their opponents with advertising in the campaign’s final weeks.
第三季度的财务报告显示，与民调中的“蓝色浪潮”（即民主党优势）相对应的是民主党在筹款方面的“绿色浪潮”（即民主党在筹款方面的强劲表现）。如果不计算自筹资金的话，共和党参议院候选人在7月至9月期间仅筹集到6500万美元，而他们的对手则筹集到了2.76亿美元；在众议院选举中，民主党的筹款优势虽然较小（2.26亿美元对1.3亿美元），但仍十分明显。
Third-quarter financial reports show a “green wave” of Democratic money alongside the blue wave seen in polling. Excluding self-funding, Republican Senate candidates raised just $65m from July to September, compared with a whopping $276m for their opponents. Democrats had a smaller but still commanding advantage in House fundraising of $226m to $130m.
为了弥补这些资金缺口，共和党依靠那些不受捐款额限制的独立超级政治行动委员会（super PACs）在支出上占据了优势。仅埃隆·马斯克一个人就在第三季度向这些组织捐赠了超过2亿美元。总体而言，与共和党结盟的超级政治行动委员会在参议院广告上的支出比民主党多出7.5亿美元（3.17亿美元对0.317亿美元）。
Republicans have offset these shortfalls with a big lead in spending by independent “super PACs”, which are not subject to donation limits. Elon Musk alone gave more than $200m to such groups in the third quarter. In total, Republican-aligned super PACs have outspent Democratic ones on Senate ads by $750m to $317m.
不过，这些超级政治行动委员会在广告宣传上的花费是普通竞选团队的三倍左右，因此民主党在直接筹款方面的优势实际上更为宝贵。根据韦斯利安媒体项目（Wesleyan Media Project）的数据库显示，10月上半月支持共和党的参议院广告数量仅比支持民主党的广告数量多出20%。
However, these groups pay around three times more than campaigns do for advertising, making Democrats’ edge in direct fundraising far more valuable. As a result, according to the Wesleyan Media Project database, there were only 20% more Senate ads favouring Republicans than Democrats during the first half of October.
此外，资金不仅是竞选活动成功的关键因素，也是衡量竞选效果的重要指标。候选人从本州民众（每位捐赠者的捐款上限为 3,500 美元）那里筹集到的资金越多，他们就越有可能拥有大量热情的支持者。仅凭捐款比例无法判断候选人的实力：现任议员通常比挑战者筹集到更多的资金，而且两党在其选区都拥有明显的筹款优势。然而，当候选人的捐款额远超根据这些因素所预期的水平时，他们在选举日的表现往往更为出色。
Moreover, money is not just a cause of campaigns’ success but also a measure of it. The more candidates raise from individuals (whose donations are capped at $3,500) in their states, the likelier they are to have large numbers of enthusiastic supporters. Nominee quality cannot be estimated from contribution ratios alone: incumbents generally out-raise challengers, and both parties enjoy big fundraising advantages in their electoral strongholds. But when candidates’ contribution shares are much larger than you would expect based on these factors, they often go on to overperform on election day.
从这一角度来看，民主党在几乎所有竞争激烈的参议院选举中都拥有明显的筹款优势。最极端的例子是堪萨斯州——该州自 1932 年以来就再未选出过民主党参议员。《经济学人》的预测模型显示，在当前的政治环境下，一位试图击败堪萨斯州共和党现任议员的民主党候选人应该能获得该州民众捐款总额的约三分之一；但实际上，首次参选的牧师亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）却获得了高达 92% 的捐款。
By this measure, Democrats have large fundraising leads in almost every competitive Senate race. The most extreme case is Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. The Economist’s forecast model reckons that in this year’s political environment, a standard Democrat trying to unseat a Republican incumbent in Kansas should get around one-third of instate individual donations. Instead, Adam Hamilton, a pastor and first-time candidate, has received a stunning 92%.
在另外两场参议院选举中，候选人在选举期间发生了变动，因此直到最近才有关于新候选人的筹款数据。在缅因州，民主党用前州议员特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）取代了被指控性骚扰的格雷厄姆·普拉特纳（Graham Platner）。在南卡罗来纳州，现任议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）去世后，共和党提名了她的妹妹达琳（Darline）作为候选人；民主党在这两场选举中表现非常出色，他们的候选人各自获得了该州民众捐款总额的约 85%。
In two other Senate races the nominees changed during the summer, so no fundraising data were available on the new candidates until recently. In Maine Democrats replaced Graham Platner, who was accused of sexual assault, with Troy Jackson, a former state legislator. In South Carolina, following the death of Lindsey Graham, the incumbent, Republicans nominated his sister Darline, a political novice. Democrats did remarkably well in these races: each of their candidates received around 85% of instate contributions.
唯一一场共和党在筹款上拥有明显优势的竞争性参议院选战是明尼苏达州。前体育播音员米歇尔·塔福亚在对阵民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根的竞选中，获得了 54% 的州内捐款——比这个浅蓝州在看似深蓝之年的基准线高出 19 个百分点。果不其然，明尼苏达州在民调中也显示出竞争性。
The only competitive Senate race where a Republican had a clear fundraising edge was Minnesota. Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster, has received 54% of instate donations in her contest against Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic lieutenant governor—19 points above the benchmark for a light-blue state in what looks like a deep-blue year. Sure enough, Minnesota also looks competitive in polls.
今年民主党的筹款优势并非新鲜事。在过去四个国会选举周期中，该党的参议院候选人平均比我们模型的基准线领先 12 个百分点。然而，特朗普时代的筹款数据依然可靠地识别出了政党后来表现超出预期的州份。本周期，顺着资金流向看，增加了民调的可信度，显示堪萨斯州和明尼苏达州是近来最不可能成为战场州的两个州份。
This year’s Democratic fundraising advantages are nothing new. During the past four congressional election cycles, the party’s Senate candidates have on average run 12 percentage points ahead of our model’s benchmarks. Yet Trump-era fundraising data have still reliably identified states where a party went on to beat expectations. This cycle, following the money adds credence to polling showing Kansas and Minnesota as two of the least likely battleground states in recent memory. ■ Stay on top of American politics with The US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important political news, and Checks and Balance, a weekly note that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters.