北京 — 惠誉旗下标普全球评级的分析师周四在一份报告中表示，中国持续多年的房地产市场低迷有望见底。
BEIJING — An end is in sight for China's yearslong property market slump, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a report distributed Thursday.
报告称，住宅房价可能在2028年第三季度触底。报告补充道，北京、上海等中国一线城市的房价最快明年就会回升。
Residential real estate prices may hit a bottom in the third quarter of 2028, the report said. It added that prices in China's largest cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, will likely recover as soon as next year.
这与今年2月的判断形成巨大反差，当时标普表示，高企的未售住房库存让“房地产市场复苏遥不可及”。报告作者、标普全球评级信用分析师爱德华·陈（Edward Chan）指出，自那时以来，两项政府政策改变了局面。
That's a big shift from February, when S&P said high levels of unsold housing kept "a property market recovery out of reach." What's changed since are two government policies, according to the report's author Edward Chan, a credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.
8月，北京出台新规限制开发商预售未完工房产。一个月后，中国总理李强表示政府将推出稳定房地产行业的政策。随后，北京针对首套房面积低于120平方米（约1291.67平方英尺）、总价低于150万元人民币（约22万美元）的购房者推出了房贷利率补贴。
In August, Beijing announced new restrictions on developers' ability to sell unfinished properties. A month later, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said the government would roll out policies for stabilizing the real estate sector. Beijing subsequently launched a mortgage rate subsidy for first-time homebuyers of units less than 1.5 million yuan ($220,000) and smaller than 120 square meters (1291.67 square feet).
陈周四在接受CNBC电话采访时表示：“开发商现在买地会非常谨慎，所以他们基本上会少买地、少开发新项目。这对营收可能不利，但有助于缓解中国房地产市场的供过于求。”他指出：“未来一到两年，帮助稳定中国房价的主要因素是供应的持续减少。”他还提到，尽管房地产低迷已持续多年，但2026年将是房地产库存真正去化的第一年。
"Developers will now be very cautious in buying land, so they will basically buy less land and develop less new projects going forward," Chan said in a phone interview with CNBC on Thursday. "That may not be good for the revenue but that will help China's oversupplied property market." "Going forward in the next one to two years, the major factor in helping stabilize China's home price is the continued reduction of supply," he said, noting that despite a multi-year property slump, 2026 is the first year of real estate inventory destocking.
供过于求的挑战如此巨大，以至于野村证券估计，截至2022年底，中国未完工预售住房的规模约为碧桂园2022年底规模的20倍。碧桂园曾是中国按销售额计算的最大民营开发商。
The oversupply challenge was so big that in 2023, Nomura estimated the scale of unfinished, pre-sold homes in China was about 20 times the size of Country Garden, as of the end of 2022. Country Garden was once the largest non-state-owned developer in China by sales.
中国恒大等房企长期依赖预售模式，推动了债务驱动的快速扩张周期。此前，天津市（北京附近）某项目的购房者曾对CNBC表示，他们已等待多年，仍未收到预购的房屋。
Chinese property developers such as Evergrande long relied on sales of apartments before they were completed, fueling a debt-driven cycle of rapid growth. Homebuyers of one project in Tianjin city near Beijing previously told CNBC they were waiting years for the units they bought ahead of completion.
最新的标普预测还将中国房地产低迷的深度，与日本、美国和西班牙在过去几十年经历的住房危机进行了对比。
The latest S&P forecast also compared the depth of China's real estate downturn so far to how housing crises in Japan, the U.S. and Spain played out in recent decades.
报告称，在帮助上述各国市场触底企稳的不同因素中，中国正在推进其中两项：去库存和企业去杠杆。标普表示：“中国的供给收缩发生得比1991年至2014年日本房地产危机时期更早，幅度也更大。”
Of the different factors that helped stabilize each of those market slumps, China is working on two: reducing supply and corporate deleveraging, the report said. "China's supply contraction is occurring much earlier and with greater magnitude" than Japan's housing crisis from 1991 to 2014, S&P said.
在价格方面，标普报告称，中国住宅价格已较2021年高点下跌22%，而日本在经历了规模大得多的价格飙升后，房价下跌了67%。
On the price front, China's residential prices have already fallen by 22% since a 2021 peak, compared with a 67% drop in Japan's after a far greater run-up in prices, the S&P report said.
相比之下，报告指出，美国在金融危机前后的房地产低迷期，住宅价格下跌了26%。
By comparison, it said the U.S. real estate slump around the financial crisis saw a 26% drop in residential prices.
中国补贴房贷的举措，以及人工智能繁荣带来的财富效应，也在提振房地产需求。
China's efforts to subsidize mortgages along with wealth effects from the artificial intelligence boom are also helping lift property demand.
同样在周四，国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩发布报告预测，今年四季度可能出现自2021年至2023年低迷期以来，一线城市二手房价格的首次增长。
Also on Thursday, Guotai Junan International's Chief Economist Hao Zhou published a report predicting the fourth quarter of this year could see the first growth in existing home prices for large, or "tier-one" cities, since the 2021 to 2023 slump.
他指出，自3月以来，一线城市出现持平或上涨价格的可能性大于小城市。特别是上海二手房价格同比跌幅收窄，而北京二手房价格已企稳，较1月低点上涨1.4%。
He noted that since March, tier one cities were more likely than smaller cities to record flat or rising prices. In particular, he said existing home prices in Shanghai have narrowed their year-on-year decline, while those of Beijing have stabilized, rising by 1.4% from a low in January.
周浩表示，作为DeepSeek和阿里巴巴总部所在地的杭州表现突出，其新房销售指数创下历史新高，新房价格仅比峰值低14.2%，跌幅小于大多数城市。
Hangzhou, home to DeepSeek and Alibaba, stood out with a record high in its new home sales index, while prices for new homes are only 14.2% below their peak and have fallen less than in most cities, Zhou said.
“未来三个月是一个关键窗口期，”他表示，“如果上海、深圳和广州在2026年11月的数据中避免出现月度下跌，那么这次复苏将比2024至2025年的周期更为持久。在我们看来，这将是一级城市市场触底的有力证据，也是更广泛市场的重要信号。”然而，需求能否在长期内保持可持续，目前仍不确定。
"The next three months are a key window," he said. "If Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou avoid a monthly decline through the November 2026 data, this rebound will have outlasted the 2024–25 episode. In our view, that would be strong evidence of a Tier-1 bottom and an important signal for the wider market." However, it's still uncertain whether demand will remain sustainable longer term.
摩根士丹利股票分析师张思平在周三的一份报告中表示，住房抵押贷款补贴将促使计划中的购房提前实现，而非创造大量新的需求。
The mortgage subsidy will bring forward planned purchases rather than creating substantial new demand, Morgan Stanley equity analyst Stephen Cheung said in a report Wednesday.
他引用了中国研究机构冰山的最新数据，数据显示，在10月1日至6日的公共假期期间，25个城市的存量房销售额较一年前增长了50%，显著高于9月份的20%增幅。
He cited data from Chinese research firm Bingshan that showed sales of existing homes in 25 cities rose by 50% from a year ago during the Oct. 1 to 6 public holiday period — picking up significantly from 20% growth in September.