随着中国房地产市场下行进入第五年，包括高盛和花旗在内的全球投资银行表示，预计该行业最早将在2027年迎来转折点，这一预期受到供应萎缩迹象以及10月初国庆假期销售强劲的推动。
As China’s housing market downturn enters its fifth year, global investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Citi say they expect the sector to pivot as soon as 2027, with expectations fuelled by signs of shrinking supply and robust sales over the National Day holiday in early October.
花旗对该行业持积极看法，并视2027年为北京、上海和深圳房价复苏的关键一年。根据花旗的数据，中国房价于2024年6月触底。
Citi holds a positive view on the sector and saw 2027 as a pivotal year for home price recovery in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Home prices in China hit their lowest point in June 2024, according to Citi.
据国家统计局周一发布数据，上海成为首个二手房价格同比转正的城市，9月价格上涨0.8%。
Shanghai became the first city to post positive year-on-year growth in secondary home prices in September, with prices rising 0.8 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
花旗研究分析师Griffin Chan在周二的一份报告中表示：“虽然我们在宣布持续复苏前仍需进一步确证，但证据越来越多地指向一线城市房价企稳并可能上涨，大多数二线城市料将滞后。”
“While we need further confirmation before declaring a sustained recovery, the evidence increasingly points to stabilising and potentially rising home prices in top cities, with most tier-two cities likely to lag,” said Griffin Chan, an analyst at Citi Research, in a report on Tuesday.
Chan指出，“黄金周”期间核心城市销售强劲，并称政策组合拳提振了房价预期，释放了改善性住房需求。
Chan noted strong sales in core cities during “golden week”, and said that policy packages had lifted home price expectations and unlocked demand for upgraded housing.
汇丰银行也强调了“黄金周”期间令人鼓舞的销售势头。该行在本月初的一份报告中表示，二手房市场交易强劲，叠加持续的价格压力，表明真实需求依然韧性十足，尽管购房者对价格仍保持敏感。其展望早于高盛周二发布的类似积极立场。
HSBC also highlighted encouraging sales momentum over golden week. In a report earlier this month, the bank said robust secondary market transactions alongside persistent price pressure suggested that genuine demand remained resilient, although buyers remained price sensitive. Its outlook came ahead of a similarly positive stance from Goldman Sachs on Tuesday.
这家投行预测，到2035年中国房地产市场将经历四个转折点，驱动力源自中国政府8月28日推出的新销售模式。国家住房、土地和金融监管部门发布的指导意见要求地方政府在新出让土地上优先销售现房。
The investment bank forecast four pivot points for China’s housing market through to 2035, driven by a new sales model introduced by the Chinese government on August 28. The guideline from national housing, land and financial regulators instructed local authorities to prioritise completed home sales on newly sold land.
高盛还在周二的报告中表示，中国可售的一级市场住宅小区供应量预计将在2028年急剧下降，并且在未来几年很可能继续大幅下降。土地销售预计从2031年开始将出现加速下滑。
Goldman Sachs also said in the Tuesday report that the supply of saleable primary market housing estates in China was set for a sharp drop in 2028, and was likely to continue material decline in the years ahead. Land sales were projected to see an accelerated decline starting in 2031.
该报告还补充说，新开工住宅和房地产固定资产投资预计将在2032年出现好转，而结构性需求的下降预计将从2030年开始加速。
New housing starts and property fixed-asset investment were expected to see a turnaround in 2032, while the decline in structural demand was set to accelerate from 2030 onwards, it added.