美国前国防部长表示，美伊战争可能会持续多年，这可能导致美国忽视中国日益增长的影响力。
The U.S.-Iran war could drag on for years, putting America at risk of overlooking China's rise to power, according to President Donald Trump's former defense secretary.
在伦敦举行的LSEG与欧亚集团GZERO峰会的专题讨论会上，马克·埃斯珀周四表示，他认为这场冲突将持续“到2027年甚至更久”，并有可能在三年后移交至下一届美国政府处理。
During a panel discussion at LSEG and Eurasia Group's GZERO Summit in London, Mark Esper said on Thursday he saw the conflict continuing "well into 2027," with a possibility that it could be handed to the next U.S. administration in three years' time.
他说：“在某个时候，双方或许会愿意坐到谈判桌前，寻求通过协商达成解决方案。但特朗普总统面临的挑战在于，他必须达成一项能将霍尔木兹海峡恢复到原状的协议，而这将极其困难。同时，这项协议还必须比[前总统巴拉克·奥巴马]从《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）中获得的成果更好，我认为这一点同样会非常艰难。”
"At some point, we will reach a point where maybe both sides are willing to come to the table and find a negotiated settlement, but the challenge for president Trump will be he's going to have to get a deal that returns the Strait of Hormuz to the status quo, which is going to be really hard, and is a deal that's better than what [former President Barack Obama] got out of the JCPOA, and I think that's going to be very difficult too," he said.
“因此，问题在于：他是否愿意达成这样的协议，并承受其后果，或者承受批评者对该协议的评价？因此，也存在另一种可能性，即问题会在2029年移交至下一届政府。”
"So the question is, will he be willing to make that deal and live with the consequences or how the critics judge that deal? And so you can see another path where it gets handed off to the next administration in 2029."
在活动期间接受CNBC采访时，埃斯珀表示，他看不到战争在“可预见的未来”内会结束。他说：“我认为战争将以目前这种节奏持续下去：美国的封锁将继续存在，双方偶尔会发生冲突，而局势也会长期拖延。”
Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the event, Esper said he does not see an end to the war "in the foreseeable future." "I think it continues at this type of pace where we see the American blockade continue, we see occasional outbursts from either side, and it drags along," he said.
这场战争目前已进入第八个月，并陷入僵局。特朗普周三表示，与德黑兰达成协议“并不是我真正想做的事情”。据媒体报道，美国官员正在考虑在未来几周内重启大规模军事行动。
The war, now in its eighth month, has reached an impasse, with Trump saying Wednesday that making a deal with Tehran "isn't really something that I want to do." According to reports, U.S. officials are considering a resumption of large-scale military operations in the coming weeks.
埃斯珀在2019年7月至2020年11月期间担任特朗普第一任总统任期内的美国国防部长。他表示，自己长期以来一直是“对伊朗实施经济扼制”政策的倡导者。但他同时指出，这种政策容易受到华盛顿方面缺乏耐心的影响。
Esper, who served as U.S. Secretary of Defense during Trump's first presidential term from July 2019 to November 2020, said he had long been an advocate for "the economic strangulation" of Iran. But he said such a policy was vulnerable to impatience in Washington.
“问题在于，政策需要时间、纪律和耐心，而这些通常并不是各州擅长的事情，”他说。“所以，如果允许实施，我认为它可能会产生一定影响。但这并不意味着它真的能让各方重新回到谈判桌前——那才是我的最终目标——但在目前这个时间点，这已经是次优的选择了。”今年夏天，特朗普宣布对伊朗加强制裁和经济限制，并将这一战略称为“经济D日”。此后，美国政府一直强调其经济战策略取得了成功。
"The challenge is that policy requires time, discipline and patience, and those aren't things that the states are typically good at doing," he said. "So, if allowed to, I think it could have an impact. It doesn't mean it'll actually bring them back to the table, which would be my end, but it's the least worst option at this point in time." Over the summer, Trump announced an intensification of sanctions and economic restrictions on Iran, a strategy he labeled "Economic D-Day." The administration has since touted the success of its economic warfare strategies.
但埃斯珀周四警告称，随着华盛顿的注意力都集中在与伊朗的冲突上，美国“最大的对手”正在不断增强自身实力。
But Esper warned Thursday that with attention in Washington focused on the Iran war, America's "greatest adversary" was building up its capabilities.
“中国是我们最大的对手，”他说。“这是一个潜伏在外的威胁，我们却并未给予足够关注，因为我们过去20多年一直专注于中东，而欧洲则专注于俄罗斯。”
"China is our greatest adversary," he said. "It's the lurking threat out there that we're not paying attention to because we're so focused, and have been for 20 plus years now, on the Middle East, and Europe is focused on Russia."
他表示，北京方面正在持续增强其经济、技术和外交实力，并已实施了“历史上最大规模的军事扩张”。
Beijing, he said, was continuing to build economic, technological and diplomatic power, having executed "the largest military buildup in history."
“我们就是没有足够关注中国，”埃斯珀对CNBC表示。“他们已经明确表态，到2049年，他们希望全面主导印太地区乃至整个世界。他们希望能够掌握主导权，并决定全球治理的规则。”他说，中国为实现这一目标至少已经努力了30年。
"We're just not paying enough attention to the Chinese," Esper told CNBC. "They've told us by 2049 they want to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and the world for all intents and purposes. They want to be able to call the shots and dictate global governance." China had been working to this end for at least 30 years, he said.
“毫无疑问，自加入世贸组织以来，他们一直利用全球贸易体系来对抗我们，以增强自身的经济和军事实力，而且他们确实有一套完整的计划，”埃斯珀说。
"Certainly, since their entry into the WTO, they've used the world trading system against us to build their own economic and military power, and they have a game plan," Esper said.
他特别指出，北京在电动汽车、稀土、太阳能电池板和关键材料等某些产业和商品领域占据主导地位。他表示，这是中国政府能够“集中控制”并将国家经济引导至特定方向的结果。“他们有一套计划，而且正在执行它，”埃斯珀说。
He highlighted Beijing's domination of certain industries and goods, such as electric vehicles, rare earths, solar panels and critical materials. This, he said, had been achieved thanks to the Chinese government's ability to "consolidate control" and direct the country's economy in a certain direction. "They have a game plan, and they're and they're executing it," Esper said.
“我会将我们的努力重点放在中国，并与欧洲和亚洲的盟友合作，这不仅包括军事联盟，还包括外交、经济和技术领域的合作。”CNBC已联系美国和中国政府寻求评论。
"I would focus our efforts on China, and I would do it in partnership with our European and Asian allies, and that would include not just military [alliances], but diplomatic, economic and technological as well." CNBC reached out to the U.S. and Chinese governments for comment.