底特律——迈克·罗杰斯需要在不疏远特朗普的支持者的情况下，展现出与总统唐纳德·特朗普保持一定距离的独立性。阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德则需要把温和派选民拉拢到阵营中来，同时又不失去那些曾大力支持他竞选的进步派人士。
DETROIT — Mike Rogers needs to show some independence from President Donald Trump without alienating Trump’s voters. Abdul El-Sayed needs to bring moderates into the fold without losing the progressives who powered his campaign.
周四晚上，这两位候选人都将面临考验：这位前共和党众议员与这位前民主党公共卫生官员将首次同台，展开密歇根州这场备受瞩目的参议院选举辩论。
Both will be tested Thursday night, when the former Republican congressman and the former Democratic public health official meet for the first debate of Michigan’s marquee Senate race.
对罗杰斯而言，这意味着要小心翼翼地避开一系列与特朗普相关的敏感议题：关税问题、伊朗战争，以及总统惯常质疑选举公正性的做法。
For Rogers, that means navigating a Trump-sized minefield: tariffs, the war in Iran and the president’s penchant for questioning the integrity of elections.
对埃尔-赛义德来说，难题在于如何团结民主党，同时又不惹恼那些情绪不安的进步派或忧心忡忡的温和派。这一难题一直难以解决，尤其是在这个至今仍深受2024年“不承诺投票”运动影响的州。
For El-Sayed, it’s the riddle of how to unite the Democratic Party without alienating restive progressives or anxious moderates, a puzzle that has proved difficult — especially in a state that is still reeling from the 2024 “Uncommitted” movement.
此次辩论是两场辩论中的第一场，于选举日26天前举行，也标志着竞选活动进入最后冲刺阶段。最近的民调显示，在争夺即将退休的密歇根州民主党参议员加里·彼得斯的席位这一竞争中，埃尔-赛义德与罗杰斯的支持率不相上下，这场竞选堪称本届选举周期中最激烈的较量之一。
Thursday’s debate, the first of two, comes 26 days before Election Day and marks the unofficial start of the campaign’s final stretch. Recent polls show El-Sayed and Rogers neck and neck in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., one of the most competitive contests of the cycle.
密歇根州的民众纷纷表示，这场竞选具备所有要素，注定会让周四的辩论成为一场不容错过的精彩对决。
Michiganders say the race has all the trappings to make Thursday’s debate a must-see showdown.
“多年来，我们这里一直没有出色的共和党人能有机会胜选，自斯彭斯·亚伯拉罕之后就再没出现过。特朗普在2024年赢得了本州选举。而另一方面，社会主义思潮盛行，民主党内部也出现了不少激进分子，”一位不愿透露姓名的密歇根州共和党官员对MS NOW说道，“我觉得会有很多人关注这场辩论。”两位候选人此刻都感受到了巨大的压力。
“We haven’t had a good, strong Republican have a chance in years, since Spence Abraham here in Michigan. Trump won this in ‘24. And you have the rise of their socialism cult, the insurgent Democratic Party,” a Michigan GOP official told MS NOW, requesting anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “I think a lot of people are gonna be watching.”Both candidates head into the debate feeling the squeeze.
周三，罗杰斯努力维持平衡的姿态表现得淋漓尽致：他的竞选团队发布了一则广告，呼吁结束美国与加拿大之间的关税战。这则时长30秒的广告是在马科姆县的一家酒吧里拍摄的，画面中罗杰斯正喝着在密歇根州广受欢迎的加拿大啤酒——拉巴特蓝啤。
Rogers’s balancing act was on full display Wednesday, when his campaign released an ad calling for an end to the U.S. tariff war with Canada. In the 30-second spot, filmed in a bar in Macomb County, Rogers drinks a Labatt Blue, a Canadian beer popular in Michigan.
“在密歇根州，我们深知加拿大并非我们的敌人。我们必须立刻结束这场关税战，”罗杰斯说道。“作为密歇根州的参议员，我将促成两党合作以降低物价。这是我的首要任务。”这则广告发布之际，正值特朗普于7月份决定对部分加拿大进口商品征收50%的关税，此举促使加拿大也采取了反制措施。这场贸易争端对密歇根州的汽车产业造成了沉重打击。
“Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war — now,” Rogers says. “As Michigan’s senator, I’ll bring both parties together to lower your prices. That’s job number one.”The spot follows Trump’s decision in July to impose a 50% tariff on some Canadian imports, which prompted Canada to retaliate with tariffs of its own. The trade fight has hit Michigan’s auto industry especially hard.
这一举动也标志着罗杰斯立场的转变。今年8月，他曾在一份声明中称：“特朗普总统‘美国优先’的理念是正确的，关税政策虽有必要，却并非适用于所有情况的万能解决方案。”这则广告迅速在兰辛和华盛顿引发热议。
It also marks a shift for Rogers. In August, he wrote in a statement that “President Trump is right to put America First — and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution.”The ad quickly reverberated in Lansing and Washington.
罗杰斯在社交平台X上发布该广告后不久，他的共和党竞争对手埃尔-赛义德便称对方“根本不是个严肃的人”，认为他之所以改变立场只是因为民意支持率持续下滑。
Shortly after Rogers posted the spot on X, El-Sayed said his GOP opponent wasn’t “a serious person,” arguing that he only shifted his position because of lagging data.
“从一开始你就为这场关税战摇旗呐喊，如今却因为支持率暴跌而立场大变，”埃尔-赛义德写道。当被问及这则广告时，特朗普在椭圆形办公室轻描淡写地回应道：“我认为他的意思是，加拿大应该达成协议。”他还对记者说道。
“You cheerled this tariff war from the beginning and you’re flip-flopping now because your poll numbers are in free fall,” El-Sayed wrote on Trump, asked about the ad in the Oval Office, brushed it aside. “I viewed him as saying that he thinks Canada should make a deal,” he told reporters.
这并非罗杰斯首次在涉及特朗普的问题上改变立场。上个月，罗杰斯在超市购物的视频中痛斥密歇根州物价飞涨，并宣称“与伊朗的战争必须尽快结束”。虽然他并未提及特朗普的名字，但这则视频被视作对这位多次为伊核冲突辩护的总统的隐晦批评。
It wasn’t Rogers’s first time changing position on Trump-related issues. In a video posted last month, Rogers — filmed while buying groceries in a supermarket — decried rising costs in Michigan, declaring “the war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”He never mentioned Trump’s name, but the spot was viewed as a veiled swipe at the president, who has repeatedly defended the conflict.
在其他问题上，罗杰斯始终紧跟特朗普的立场。今年夏季，身为众议院情报委员会前主席的罗杰斯对特朗普7月份关于选举公正性的演讲表示赞赏，并在社交平台X上写道：“我很感激特朗普总统致力于维护透明度。”而在2024年自己竞选失利后，罗杰斯又声称败选的原因是“底特律出现了一辆载有选票的货车”。值得注意的是，2020年大选结束后，罗杰斯曾严厉谴责特朗普试图推翻选举结果的种种举动。
On other issues, Rogers has stuck close to Trump. Over the summer, Rogers — the former chairman of the powerful House Intelligence Committee — applauded Trump’s July speech on election integrity, writing on X that he was “thankful for President Trump’s commitment to transparency.”And after his own loss in 2024, Rogers suggested his defeat was because a “van showed up in Detroit with ballots.”Both comments came after Rogers, in the aftermath of the 2020 election, strongly condemned Trump’s attempts to undermine the results.
罗杰斯的这种行事方式恰恰反映了密歇根州复杂的政治环境。根据马里斯特民调，上个月特朗普在该州的支持率仅为41%，处于负值区间；但密歇根州仍属于典型的摇摆州。罗杰斯过往的选举表现也一直逊于特朗普：2024年特朗普以1.4个百分点的优势赢得该州，而罗杰斯则以0.34个百分点、约1.9万票的差距输给了现任民主党参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金。
Rogers’s maneuvering reflects Michigan’s tricky terrain. Trump’s approval rating in the state is underwater — just 41% last month, according to a Marist poll — but Michigan remains true purple territory. And Rogers has a history of running behind the president: In 2024, Trump carried the state by 1.4 percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, now a senator, by 0.34 percentage points — roughly 19,000 votes.
这位共和党官员将罗杰斯与特朗普立场出现分歧的行为视为坦诚的表现。“你会看到迈克·罗杰斯直言不讳，”该官员说道，“就像他此前反对特朗普对加拿大征收关税的举措那样。”
The Republican official cast Rogers’s breaks with Trump as a matter of candor. “You’ll see Mike Rogers be honest,” the official said, “like he went against Trump on the tariffs with Canada.”
“政客们最容易犯的错误就是必须百分之百附和上级意见，”这位官员补充道，“其实没必要做到百分之百一致，毕竟每个人的选区乃至所在州的情况都各不相同。”与此同时，定于周四晚间举行的辩论，对属于进步派的埃尔-赛义德而言也是一次良机——此前他在初选中与主张温和路线的众议员黑莉·史蒂文斯激烈交锋，此次辩论能助他进一步凝聚民主党力量。
“The biggest mistake that politicians make is they have to agree 100%,” the person added. “You don’t have to agree 100% because everybody’s district and everybody’s state, in this case, is different.”Thursday night’s debate, meanwhile, will be another chance for El-Sayed, a progressive, to try and unite the Democratic Party after his bruising primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, who was running as the moderate alternative.
埃尔-赛义德几乎肯定会面临诸多引发党内分歧的问题，包括他此前提出的削减警察经费的提议、将加沙局势定性为“种族灭绝”的言论，以及他与左翼网络主播哈桑·皮克尔的关联——后者曾因有关以色列、哈马斯及共产主义的言论引发争议。
El-Sayed will almost certainly field questions on a number of topics that have divided the party, including his previous calls to defund the police, his labeling of the situation in Gaza a “genocide” and his connections to left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who has drawn controversy for his comments about Israel, Hamas and communism.
在试图争取那些曾在初选中支持史蒂文斯的犹太选民之际，加沙问题以及他与派克尔的关联成了引发争议的焦点。
The Gaza issue and his association with Piker have been particular lightning rods as El-Sayed tries to court Jewish voters who backed Stevens in the primary.
为团结党内力量，埃尔-赛义德请来了重量级人物助阵。未在初选中表态支持的斯洛特金于周末与他一同出席集会。上个月，前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯也为他助选；本月晚些时候，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马也计划与他共同举办集会。
To unify the party, El-Sayed has brought in the big guns. Slotkin, who didn’t endorse in the primary, appeared with him at a rally over the weekend. Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned with him last month, and former President Barack Obama is scheduled to rally with him later this month.
不过这其中的平衡十分微妙。尽管埃尔-赛义德努力将温和派纳入自己的阵营，却也有可能疏远那些构成其竞选基础的核心进步派支持者。
But it’s a delicate balance. While El-Sayed is working to include moderates in his coalition, he risks turning off the progressive supporters who make up the foundation of his campaign.
来自迪尔伯恩、25岁的市场营销从业者赫巴·加富尔表示，自己之所以支持埃尔-赛义德，正是因为他秉持左翼立场。
Hebah Ghafoor, a 25-year-old marketing professional from Dearborn, said she is voting for El-Sayed because of his left-leaning credentials.
“我觉得他更站在民众这一边，”加富尔说道，“比起在上次总统选举中并未为我们带来好处的共和党人，我更倾向于民主社会主义理念。” 来自圣约翰斯、28岁的制作经理阿洛雷不愿透露自己的姓氏，她称自己被埃尔-赛义德的主张以及他深入基层的作风所吸引。
“I feel like he is more for the people,” Ghafoor said. “Democratic socialism is kind of what I’m leaning towards versus Republicans who haven’t done us the best in this last presidential election.”Alore, a 28-year-old production manager from St. Johns who declined to give her surname, said she was drawn to El-Sayed’s message and to seeing him on the ground.
“我喜欢他深入社区的做法，我已经见过他好几次了，”她说，“全民医保、清除政治中的金钱因素——这些主张我都完全认同。” 总统本人或许很快也会亲自介入这场竞选。7月份与罗杰斯一同出席集会后，特朗普本周对记者表示：“大约一周半后我会前往密歇根州，”不过并未透露具体安排。截至周四，白宫与罗杰斯竞选团队均未公布相关计划。至于埃尔-赛义德，他则态度坚决。
“I like that he’s in the community, I’ve met him several times,” she said. “Medicare for all, money out of politics — that’s all verbiage that I agree with.”The president himself may soon weigh in on the race in person. After appearing at a rally with Rogers in July, Trump told reporters this week, “I’m going to Michigan in about a week and a half,” without offering specifics. As of Thursday, neither the White House nor the Rogers campaign had announced any plans. El-Sayed, for his part, is leaning in.
“唐纳德，欢迎来到密歇根州，”本周埃尔-赛义德在MS NOW的访谈中说道，“我倒要看看你敢不敢来。”
“Donald, welcome to Michigan,” El-Sayed said during an interview on MS NOW this week. “I dare you to come.”