
华尔街最大的银行正准备延续数月以来的大规模借贷,并计划在第四季度发行比平时更多的债券,以筹集资金满足人工智能热潮带来的巨大融资需求。
Street’s biggest banks are set to extend a months-long borrowing binge and issue more bonds than usual in the fourth quarter, raising funds to meet the insatiable financing needs fueling the artificial intelligence boom.
巴克莱银行(Barclays Plc)的分析师估计,美国六大银行在本季度将从债务市场筹集约410亿美元,这一金额将比2015年以来第四季度的平均水平高出30%。巴克莱银行表示,第三季度高级债务发行额达到500亿美元,是前一年水平的两倍多。
Analysts from Barclays Plc estimate the six largest US banks will tap the debt market for about $41 billion in the current quarter, an amount that would be 30% above the fourth-quarter average going back to 2015. In the third quarter, senior debt issuance reached $50 billion, more than double prior-year levels, according to Barclays.
巴克莱银行分析师Peter Troisi和Ishika Goyal在10月1日的一份报告中写道,银行加大借贷力度,不仅是为了资助人工智能建设,以及从SpaceX到甲骨文公司(Oracle Corp.)等超大规模科技巨头和科技巨擘所投入的数千亿美元资金,也是为了支持随着该行业增长而出现的交易和市场活动增加。他们表示,目前这波资金供给“已被相对较好地消化”,而银行债务的收益率溢价保持稳定,因此随着人工智能需求的增长,银行有动力继续储备资金。
Banks have ramped up borrowing to finance not only the AI buildout, and the hundreds of billions being spent by hyperscalers and tech giants from SpaceX to Oracle Corp., but also to facilitate the increased trading and market activity that has cropped up in tandem with the growing industry, Barclays analysts Peter Troisi and Ishika Goyal wrote in an Oct. 1 report. The wave of supply has been “relatively well-digested” so far, they said, and with yield premiums on bank debt remaining stable, banks have an incentive to keep stockpiling funds as AI needs increase.
他们写道:“鉴于融资对于把握人工智能相关活动所创造的机会至关重要,我们预计‘六大行’全部将在第四季度重返市场。”同时,他们补充说,一些科技相关的首次公开募股(IPO)可能面临延迟,这或许会限制债券发行规模。
“We expect all of the Big 6 banks to return to the market in 4Q, given the importance of funding to capture the opportunity that AI-related activity is generating,” they wrote. At the same time, potential delays in some tech-related initial public offerings may serve as a cap to issuance, they added.
银行通常在公布季度业绩后进入市场。下一周,这一季节性财报发布季将拉开序幕:富国银行(Wells Fargo & Co)、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)都将在10月13日公布业绩,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)则将在次日发布。
Banks traditionally come to market after reporting quarterly results. That seasonal earnings rush will kick off next week, with Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. all set to report on Oct. 13, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. the next day.

根据巴克莱银行策略师的说法,今年迄今,这些银行在全球范围内已借款1920亿美元,与去年同期相比增长约40%,全年借款总额预计将达到2330亿美元。对于美国银行整体而言,他们目前预测全年的优先债务发行量将达到2940亿美元,比最初估计高出约25%,也高于2025年的2400亿美元。
Year to date, these banks have borrowed $192 billion globally, up some 40% from the same time last year, with the full-year tally estimated at $233 billion, according to the Barclays strategists. For US banks as a whole, they now forecast full-year senior debt issuance of $294 billion, some 25% higher than their initial estimate and up from $240 billion in 2025.
彭博智囊团分析师阿诺德·卡库达表示,在这六家银行中,高盛和摩根士丹利在2026年的发行量中处于领先地位,它们可能在下周财报发布后成为最活跃的借款方。
Among the six banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which have led 2026 issuance, may be the most active borrowers post earnings next week, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Arnold Kakuda.
尽管银行在把握借款时机方面尤为精明,但近期基准借款成本的飙升可能会抑制它们过度增加债务。与此同时,围绕超大规模科技公司及其他科技借款人日益加剧的信用担忧,也反映出市场对巨额债务支撑人工智能领域大规模支出这一现象的焦虑情绪正在上升。
While banks are particularly savvy when it comes to timing borrowing, a recent surge in benchmark borrowing costs may be a deterrent to adding on too much debt. Meanwhile, indications of growing credit concerns around the hyperscalers and other tech borrowers point to increasing unease over the piles of debt feeding the heavy spending on AI.
在一份单独的报告中,摩根大通预测美国银行在10月份的发行规模将达到240亿美元,并指出富国银行和花旗集团上个月已通过债券市场进行了180亿美元的所谓“非周期发行”,其中花旗集团……包括卡比尔·卡普里汉在内的策略师在一份周二发布的报告中写道:“我们预计这些银行在财报发布后不会进行发行,并认为美国银行也可能不会进入市场——因此大部分发行将来自摩根士丹利和高盛。”
In a separate note, JPMorgan forecast $24 billion of supply among US banks in October, pointing out that Wells Fargo and Citigroup already tapped bond markets for $18 billion in so-called off-cycle issuance last month, with Citigroup . “We don’t expect issuance from those names post earnings and do believe that Bank of America may also not tap the market – thus the bulk of issuance will be from MS and GS,” strategists including Kabir Caprihan wrote in a note dated Tuesday.