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民主党人正冲着特朗普而来,而他所能做的只是给他们起绰号The Dumocrats Are Coming for Trump, and All He Can Do Is Call Them Names

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在竞选活动中,真正能激起唐纳德·特朗普热情的话题只有一个,当然,也就是那个让他在白宫乃至任何场合都乐此不疲、津津乐道的主题:他自己。

Only one subject truly animates Donald Trump on the campaign trail, and it is, of course, the same one that delights and fascinates him in the Oval Office and everywhere else: himself.

“从来没有哪位总统能取得我们所取得的成就,”周末他在俄亥俄州范达利亚的一所高中举行的竞选集会上对听众说道。

“No President has ever achieved what we’ve achieved,” he told the audience at a campaign rally over the weekend, at a high school in Vandalia, Ohio.

周一,在内布拉斯加州的大岛市,他说道:“你们知道‘GOAT’是什么意思吧?就是‘史上最伟大’。我们绝对当之无愧,因为没有任何一位总统能在执政头两年里取得比特朗普总统更多的政绩。”

“You know what GOAT means? Greatest of all time,” he said in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Monday. “We gotta be, ’cause there has been no President that’s done more in the first two years than President Trump.”

周三,在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市,他再次强调:“我们在短短两年内取得的成就超过了我国历史上任何一届总统任期内所取得的成绩。”目前,在该州有一名民主党候选人正在与特朗普钦点的候选人展开激烈角逐,这位民主党人如今大有机会自1988年以来首次为本党赢得该州的参议院席位。

“We achieved more in two years than any other Presidency in the history of our country,” he said on Wednesday, in San Antonio, Texas, where a Democrat—running against Trump’s hand-picked candidate—now stands an even chance of winning a Senate seat in the state for the first time since 1988.

难怪在中期选举前夕,特朗普对自身政党困境的分析始终围绕着他那个核心观点:政治本就应当且只应以他为中心。正因如此,他在各类集会上一再重复同样的话。在俄亥俄州的一所高中,面对众多支持者,特朗普说道:“请假装我也在选举名单上。”就在两年前,特朗普还以两位数的优势赢得了该州,而如今民主党人正试图夺回州长职位及联邦参议院席位。

No wonder, then, that Trump’s diagnosis of his party’s plight in advance of the midterm elections flows back to this one key insight of his, which is that politics is, and should be, solely about him. Hence his refrain at these rallies. “Please pretend that I’m on the ballot,” he told the crowd at the high school in Ohio, where Democrats are threatening to retake both the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat just two years after Trump won the state by double digits.

周一,在内布拉斯加州他又补充道:“只要我在选举名单上,民众就会踊跃投票,你们也总能获胜。所以恳请各位帮我一个忙:就假装我也在选举名单上吧。”据我统计,本周特朗普在竞选巡回活动中,花了约7小时56分钟向那些日益稀少的忠实支持者发表演讲,试图力挽狂澜——如今越来越多的民主党和共和党人士都认为,共和党可能会同时失去众议院和参议院的控制权。

“When I’m on the ballot, people show up and you always win,” he added in Nebraska, on Monday. “So I’m asking you to do me one favor: pretend I’m on the ballot, please.”By my reckoning, Trump spent some seven hours and fifty-six minutes addressing the (dwindling) Trump faithful in his campaign tour this week, a last-ditch effort to stave off what an increasing number of both Democrats and Republicans believe may be a loss of both the House and the Senate.

从特朗普的行程安排便可见今年中期选举中共和党运势的急转直下:他前往的皆是本应稳属共和党阵营的州——得克萨斯州、俄克拉荷马州、阿拉巴马州、俄亥俄州、内布拉斯加州,最后又回到得克萨斯州。2024年,特朗普在这五个州的平均得票率优势高达22%。而在得克萨斯州,他很快将进行第三次造势活动;近期几乎所有民调都显示,民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的支持率领先于共和党人、现任州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿,其中不少民调显示塔拉里科的支持率已突破50%这一关键门槛。

The President’s itinerary speaks to the abrupt reversal of fortunes for the G.O.P. this election year, with Trump stumping in what should be safely red territory: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio, Nebraska, and back to Texas. He won these five states by an average margin of twenty-two per cent in 2024. In Texas, where he will soon return for a third visit, nearly all recent polls have the Democratic nominee for Senate, James Talarico, leading the Republican state attorney general, Ken Paxton, several of them with more than fifty per cent support—a key threshold.

历史上不受欢迎且陷入自己选择的中东战争,这场战争导致全球几乎所有商品价格飙升,尽管如此,总统仍在使用一篇标准的演讲稿,列举他执政期间取得的所有胜利——如此之多,以至于他在俄亥俄州对观众说,真的可以原谅人们认为在特朗普执政下,美国实际上“赢得太多”。他不断向听众讲述伟大的股市、极佳的关税以及史上最封闭的边境。

Historically unpopular and trapped in a war of his own choosing in the Middle East, which has sent global prices spiking upward for just about everything, the President has nonetheless been going with a standard stump speech that is a litany of all the winning that’s taken place during his reign—so much of it that, really, he told the crowd in Ohio, one could be forgiven for thinking that perhaps, under Trump, America was actually “winning too much.”On and on he lectured his audiences about the great stock market, the terrific tariffs, and the most closed-shut border in history.

他诗意地赞美自己惊人的民调数字——即便只是在自称MAGA支持者中——并对他为我们这片曾经动荡的土地带来的黄金时代充满热情。所有这些,然而全国仍有三分之二的人认为美国走错了方向?

He waxed poetic about his incredible poll numbers—if only among self-defined MAGA supporters—and enthused about the golden age that he has brought forth for our once troubled land. All this, and yet two-thirds of the country thinks the U.S. is on the wrong track?

否认,当然,一直是特朗普作为政治家的标志之一。但在这一年里,这似乎是一个令人惊讶的竞选主题选择。“顺便说一下,我们几乎没有通胀,”他在俄亥俄州说。至于负担能力,他在内布拉斯加解释说,这是“他们”编造的阴谋,用来攻击他。

Denial, of course, has long been one of Trump’s signatures as a politician. But in this of all years it seems a bit of a surprising choice for a campaign theme. “We have almost no inflation, by the way,” he said in Ohio. As for affordability, he explained in Nebraska, it was a plot that “they” had cooked up to attack him with.

在所有这些集会上,特朗普几乎都没有提及那个已经成为2026年竞选活动核心问题的自身造成的危机——即与伊朗的战争以及由此引发的全球经济困境。即便他偶尔提到这场冲突,也只是承诺战争会“很快”结束,从而导致石油和其他商品的价格大幅下跌。在内布拉斯加州,他还开玩笑说:“价格下降的速度会快到让人忍不住喊‘求求您了,先生,慢一点吧!’”

In all of the rallies, Trump said little about the self-inflicted crisis that has become the dominant issue in the 2026 campaign: the war against Iran and the attendant global economic squeeze. To the extent that he mentioned the conflict at all, it was to promise that it would be over “very soon,” causing prices for oil and everything else to plunge. In Nebraska, he joked that prices were going to fall so fast and so sharply, in fact, that “you might say, ‘Please, please, sir, it’s going down too fast.’ ”

然而,他的言辞中流露出一种与特朗普以往风格截然不同的不安全感,这使得这次竞选活动与我过去十年所目睹的多次特朗普竞选活动都截然不同。在阿拉巴马州,他甚至公开承认这场冲突“很可能要到中期选举之后才会结束”。

But there was a note of un-Trumpian insecurity to it all that made this performance unlike any of the many previous Trump campaign tours I’ve watched during the past decade. In Alabama, he said the quiet part out loud and admitted that the conflict was not likely to end until “probably right after the midterms.”

“我们正在狠狠地打击伊朗,”特朗普在内布拉斯加州说道,“你们应该知道这一点吧?” 他的演讲中唯一与伊朗相关的“真正新闻”,其实是一场争议:有人质疑他是否真的暗示过要对洛杉矶和圣地亚哥发动核攻击;或者更准确地说,他的表述方式非常含糊不清,让人误以为他确实表达了这样的意图。但实际上,他的意思是:美国与伊朗开战是为了阻止伊朗拥有核武器——因为这些核武器有朝一日可能会被用来攻击加利福尼亚州。

“We’re kicking Iran’s ass,” the President said in Nebraska. “You do know that, right?”The only real news related to Iran to come out of his speeches was the controversy that broke out over whether he had actually invited the nuking of Los Angeles and San Diego, or merely spoke in such a circuitous and garbled way that it appeared he had done so, when, in fact, he meant that he was at war with Iran in order to prevent it from having nuclear weapons that might, someday, theoretically, be used to attack California.

在特朗普的六场竞选活动中,有一件事让我印象深刻:这位总统似乎对整个竞选过程毫无乐趣可言。在2018年的竞选活动中,他的眼中仍充满了对人民敌人的仇恨;当他与那些在福克斯新闻节目中占据他大量工作时间的人士同台演讲时,他脸上流露出愉悦的表情。对于特朗普来说,竞选集会始终是他最开心的时刻。那时他就像现在一样,清楚地知道自己的政党在中期选举中很可能会落败。

One thing that struck me, listening to Trump at each of his six stops, was how little joy the President seemed to take from the exercise. Back in the 2018 campaign, his eyes still lit up with hatred for the enemies of the people, and he exuded delight to be joined onstage by some of the Fox News personalities whose shows consumed so much of his White House workday. Rallies were always his happy place. He knew then, just as he knows now, that his party was likely to get thumped in the midterms.

然而,2026年的特朗普已经不再是那个充满斗志的“快乐战士”了。他的情绪低落,这一点从他在俄亥俄州演讲时随意说出的威胁性话语中可见一斑:“我们会把那些人打得落花流水,明白吗?”作为演讲者,特朗普在抨击对手时确实表现得最为激动、最为投入;在他的言辞中,那些用来形容“蓝色美国”(即民主党控制的地区)糟糕状况的恐怖性描述早已成为他的“惯用语言”。他一直在重温自己在就职演说中提到的“美国大屠杀”的场景。

But this 2026 Trump is not nearly so much of a happy warrior. His present mood seemed better exemplified by a threat that he casually threw out on Saturday night, in the midst of his Ohio speech, apropos of what I was not entirely sure: “We’re going to shove it up their ass,” he vowed. “O.K.?”As a speaker, Trump remains at his best, or at least at his most animated, when on the attack, and there’s nothing more practiced in the Trump lexicon than the language of dark horror with which he describes conditions in the hellscape that is blue America. He is forever reliving the glory of that “American carnage” Inaugural address.

周三晚上在德克萨斯州的演讲中,有一段话特别引起了我的注意:其中详细描述了在民主党统治下,城市陷入“肮脏、苦难和贫困”之中的可怕景象:“一旦民主党掌权,一切都会变得肮脏不堪——街道脏乱不堪,商店的门把手也脏兮兮的,人行道更是污秽不堪,到处都散发着难闻的气味。”嗯?据我所知,这甚至可以说是特朗普从未使用过的表达方式……特朗普不仅喜欢抨击那些“蓝州”(民主党控制的州),在他的演讲中,民主党人也被他称为“骗子”;他用“他们欺骗得极其厉害”来形容民主党人。

In Texas on Wednesday night, one passage in particular stuck out to me, with its elaborate and yet oddly specific description of the awfulness of cities sunk into the “squalor, misery, poverty, homelessness” that goes along with Democratic rule: “When the blues get in, everything becomes dirty. The streets are dirty. The doorknobs going into stores are dirty. The sidewalks are filthy, dirty. Everything becomes dirty and has a bad smell.”Huh? That’s a new one, as far as I can tell, even for Trump. And it’s not just those blue-state cesspools that Trump likes to rail against.

在俄克拉荷马州,他称民主党人是“一群共产主义者、虐待儿童的人以及支持非法移民的人”,这些人会毁掉他和他的支持者们所做的一切。特朗普还列举了许多他眼中的“国家破坏者”:纽约州众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(她被指责“编造了气候变化这一谎言”);“忘恩负义”的前德克萨斯州众议员亨利·库埃拉尔(虽然被特朗普赦免,但仍拒绝退出民主党并转投共和党);密歇根州参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德(被特朗普称为“彻头彻尾的共产主义者”);以及佐治亚州的民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫(特朗普称他为“长得像小赫尔曼(Pee-wee Herman)的人”)。

Democrats, in his speeches, are “cheaters, they cheat like hell,” as he put it in Oklahoma, a rabble of Communists and child mutilators and illegal-immigrant lovers who are going to ruin everything that he and his base have done. The President offered shout-outs to a long list of these terrible nation-wreckers: the New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (a “bad student” who made up climate change); the “ungrateful” former Texas congressman Henry Cuellar (who was pardoned by Trump but refused to quit the Democratic Party and become a Republican); the Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (“a total Communist”); the “guy in Georgia,” by which I guess he meant the Democratic senator Jon Ossoff, who “looks like Pee-wee Herman.”’

在内布拉斯加州,特朗普攻击了丹·奥斯本,称他是“一个伪装的独立候选人”,实际上奥斯本是在与共和党现任参议员皮特·里克茨竞争;特朗普称奥斯本是“极左翼的疯子”,如果他当选,会“没收人们的枪支”,还“想强迫所有人接受性别转变”。

In Nebraska, he went after Dan Osborn, “a fake Independent” running for Senate against the Republican incumbent, Pete Ricketts—Osborn is, Trump said, a “radical left lunatic” who will “take your guns away if he gets in” and “who wants to transgender for everybody.”

然而,在几乎所有的演讲中,特朗普都对塔拉里科(Talarico)怀有特别的敌意;在圣安东尼奥,他称塔拉里科为“民主党共产主义者詹姆斯·塔拉弗里科(James Talafreako)”。或许特朗普觉得自己在德克萨斯州参议院选举中负有责任——因为如果他没有坚持支持在共和党初选中陷入丑闻的帕克斯顿(Paxton),这场选举很可能会被共和党现任参议员约翰·科宁(John Cornyn)轻松赢得。

But, in almost all of his speeches, Trump reserved special ire for Talarico, or, as he referred to him in San Antonio, “Dumocrat Communist James Talafreako.”Perhaps Trump feels on the hook for the Texas Senate race, which most likely would have been easily won by the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, had Trump not insisted on backing the scandal-plagued Paxton in the G.O.P. primary runoff.

无论出于什么原因,他似乎都对塔拉里科怀恨在心,贬低他为“一个软弱、懦弱、自我厌恶的人,还是一个支持跨性别者的‘怪胎’”,并声称塔拉里科会“摧毁我们一直以来建立的一切”。不过,从特朗普的言论中,我并没有真正了解到塔拉里科对共和国构成多大的威胁。值得注意的是,在多次集会上,特朗普都对塔拉里科的“纯素食主义”观点大加抨击,指责他之所以吃肉,只是为了讨好那些喜欢肉类的德克萨斯州选民,结果导致自己“到处呕吐”。

Whatever the reason, he seems to have saved up extra bile for Talarico, demeaning him as a “weak, gutless, self-hating, transgender-promoting freak show” who threatens to “destroy everything that we’ve built.”I did not learn from Trump all that much about what nature of threat to the Republic Talarico poses, though I found it notable that, at several rallies, the President took off on rants about Talarico’s alleged veganism, accusing him of eating meat only in order to suck up to the meat-loving Texas electorate and thus causing himself to be “throwing up all over the place.”

特朗普特别喜欢这个“呕吐”的比喻,甚至多次重复使用——即使是在那些塔拉里科根本没有参选资格的州也是如此。他在阿拉巴马州说:“他明明是个纯素食主义者,却突然跑去烧烤……但他们没有告诉你的是:每次烧烤后,他都会走到帐篷后面,然后到处呕吐。”他在俄克拉荷马州也提到了同样的事情:“因为他是纯素食主义者,所以在俄克拉荷马州或德克萨斯州,你根本不可能当选。”

Trump liked the throwing-up line so much so he said it repeatedly, including to audiences in states where Talarico is not on the ballot. “He’s a vegan and all of a sudden he’s going to barbecues,” he said in Alabama. “What they don’t show you is that, after every barbecue, he walks to the back of a tent and he throws up all over the place.”He mentioned the supposed throwing up in Oklahoma, too, “because he’s a vegan, and you can’t get elected as a vegan in Oklahoma or in Texas.”

上次德克萨斯州选出民主党参议员的时候,几乎有一半的美国人根本不在世……然而,特朗普现在还在说这种荒谬的话。

Nearly half the country was not alive the last time Texas elected a Democratic senator. And yet this is what Trump is talking about.

2018年,特朗普在竞选演讲中曾说过这样一段话:“投票给我和我的政党吧,因为只有我们才能阻止那些正朝我们南部边境涌来的‘棕色人种’的入侵。”当然,这完全是谎言;但与今年特朗普的告别演说相比,那时的言论至少还算“清晰明了”一些。今年的告别演说内容则是:“投票给我吧,因为我的政策导致的物价上涨根本无关紧要;而且如果你不投票,民主党人会把你的孩子变成共产主义者,还会强迫他们接受性别重置手术……除非他们住在洛杉矶——那样的话,伊朗人就会对他们发动核攻击。”距离选举只剩下26天了……

In 2018, the President closed with what seemed, at the time, a pretty crazy message: Vote for me and my party, because we’re the only ones who can stop the invasion of a caravan of brown people currently making their way toward our southern border. It was untrue, of course, yet also something of a model of clarity compared with this year’s parting thoughts from our President: Vote for me because high prices due to my policies don’t matter and also because, if you don’t, the Dumocrats will turn your kids into Communists and force them to have gender-reassignment surgery, unless they happen to live in Los Angeles, in which case the Iranians will nuke them. Got that? Twenty-six days to go. . . .