2026年10月9日，美国东部时间上午5点：纽约州共和党众议员迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler）在纽约州查帕夸（Chappaqua）举行的新闻发布会上发表讲话。劳勒正在一个竞争激烈的选区参选；这个选区的结果可能会直接影响国会控制权的归属。
October 9, 2026 5:00 AM ET Elena Moore Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, speaks during a press conference in Chappaqua, New York. Lawler is running in a tight race in a toss-up district that could help determine control of Congress.
地点： 纽约州罗克兰县（Rockland County, New York）
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images North America ROCKLAND COUNTY, New York – Photos of children and grandchildren line the wall behind the counter at Sparky's Diner, a local joint that sits on the corner of a busy intersection in Garnerville, New York, about an hour outside New York City.
照片说明： 在位于纽约市郊加纳维尔（Garnerville）一个繁忙十字路口旁的餐厅“Sparky’s Diner”里，墙上挂满了孩子和孙辈的照片。
"I've been in this place 50 years, it'll be 51 in February," said Jeannie Nicolakis, the diner's owner. "I started out – I didn't even have my kids at the time – and then I had my kids, and I raised them in here, in a playpen." But her pride doesn't stop at her family. It extends to her congressman, Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican running for reelection in New York's 17th district. It is one of the closest races in the country in a seat encompassing a string of commuter towns and suburbs around the Hudson River Valley.
“我在这个地方已经经营了50年，到2月份就满51年了，”餐厅老板珍妮·尼科拉基斯（Jeannie Nicolakis）说，“我刚开始创业的时候还没有孩子；后来有了孩子，也是在这里把他们抚养长大的。”她的自豪感不仅体现在自己的家庭上，也体现在她的议员——迈克·劳勒身上。劳勒是这位共和党议员的坚定支持者；他正在纽约州第17选区竞选连任。这个选区的竞争异常激烈，该选区涵盖了哈德逊河谷（Hudson River Valley）沿岸的多个通勤城镇和郊区。
"He's like my own son. That's how I see him," she said, before adding, "not really my son – because I'm old enough to be his grandmother – but I see him as a grandson that's done so much for this county." To supporters like Nicolakis, no one can take Lawler's place. But this district is far from a Republican stronghold. It's one of just a handful of places that elected a Republican to the House of Representatives in 2024 and also voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.
“他就像我的亲生儿子一样，”珍妮说，“虽然严格来说他不是我的儿子（因为我年纪已经够大，可以当他的祖母了），但我把他当作一个为这个县做出过很多贡献的‘孙子’来看待。”对于像尼科拉基斯这样的支持者来说，没有人能够取代劳勒的位置。然而，这个选区其实并不是共和党的传统据点；在2024年的选举中，这里仅有少数几个选区将席位投给了共和党人，而同时也有选民投票给了民主党人卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）。
Two years later, Lawler's ability to hold onto the seat could be a deciding factor in determining whether Republicans can keep their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. He faces a competitive challenge from Democrat Cait Conley, a military veteran and former counterterrorism official during the Biden administration who has sought to chip away at the broader coalition that's elected Lawler to congress twice before.
两年后，劳勒能否保住这个席位，可能会成为决定共和党是否能在众议院维持微弱多数地位的关键因素。他的竞争对手是民主党人凯特·康利（Cait Conley）——她曾是一名军事退伍军人，在拜登政府期间担任反恐官员，并试图削弱当初帮助劳勒两次当选国会议员的选民联盟。
Lawler has tried to position himself as a Republican who is unafraid to cross his own party and highlights examples on the campaign trail, including how he broke with the administration over the decision to end a policy that shielded nearly 350,000 of Haitian migrants from deportation. Lawler says he was able to get the White House to temporarily extend work authorizations for beneficiaries of the program, however that has since expired.
劳勒一直试图塑造自己作为一位敢于违背本党立场的共和党人的形象，并在竞选活动中列举诸多实例加以佐证。比如，他曾因政府决定废除一项保护近35万名海地移民免遭驱逐的政策而与之决裂。劳勒称，他成功促使白宫暂时延长了该政策受益者可享有的工作许可，不过这一许可如今也已到期。
He also regularly touts his work to raise the state and local property tax deduction, or SALT cap, a popular issue among his constituents that became a flash point in negotiations over Trump's massive tax and spending bill. Lawler ultimately cast a deciding vote in favor of the legislation, though critics have argued that other key parts of the bill have hurt voters, notably, the sizable cuts to federal healthcare funds At the same time, Lawler hasn't shied away from Trump.
他还经常宣扬自己为提高州与地方房产税减免额度所做出的努力。这一议题深受其选民欢迎，也曾成为特朗普提出的大规模税收与支出法案谈判中的争议焦点。最终，劳勒投下了支持该法案的关键一票；不过批评者指出，法案中的其他重要条款实则损害了选民利益，尤其是对联邦医疗资金的大幅削减。与此同时，劳勒也并未刻意疏远特朗普。
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, walks on stage on the second day of the Republican National Convention in September.
纽约州共和党众议员迈克·劳勒于9月份在共和党全国代表大会第二天登台发言。
Alex Wong/Getty Images North America "The truth is that the president and I don't always agree, and that's okay. After all, we're both New Yorkers," Lawler said in an address at the Republican National Convention in September. "What I learned about President Trump behind closed doors is that if you're willing to make your case and fight for what you believe in, he's willing to listen." With less than a month until Election Day, Democrat and Republican-aligned groups have already collectively spent more than $40 million on ad spending in this race.
亚历克斯·王/盖蒂图片社北美分社 “事实上，我和总统的观点并不总是一致，但这没关系。毕竟我们都是纽约人，”劳勒在9月份的共和党全国代表大会上说道，“私下接触后我发现，只要你愿意据理力争、为自己的信念而战，特朗普总统也愿意倾听。”距离选举日不到一个月，支持民主党和共和党的各类团体已在该选区的广告投放上累计花费超过4000万美元。
It comes as national polls show the GOP at a disadvantage, finding that voters are more likely to choose Democrats over Republicans when asked which party's candidate they would back in their district. Plus, President Trump continues to battle historically low approval ratings, with a majority of Americans saying they "strongly disapprove" of his job performance, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll Can voters separate Lawler from his party?
近期多项全国性民调显示，共和党处于劣势：当被问及会在所在选区支持哪个党派的候选人时，更多选民倾向于选择民主党人。此外，最新一期NPR/PBS News/Marist联合民调指出，特朗普总统的支持率持续处于历史低位，多数美国民众对其执政表现表示“强烈不满”。那么，选民们能否将劳勒与其所属政党区分开来呢？
Just outside of Sparky's Diner on a recent sunny Saturday afternoon, a lengthy procession of local first-responders and marching bands participate in the annual Rockland County Volunteer Firefighters Association parade. Lawler walks alongside them, frequently stopping to take selfies and shake hands with residents lining nearby sidewalks.
不久前一个阳光明媚的周六下午，在斯帕基餐厅附近，大批当地急救人员与军乐队参加了一年一度的洛克兰县志愿消防员协会游行。劳勒走在队伍中，不时停下来与沿路围观的居民自拍合影、握手致意。
Despite the national stakes of his race, Lawler remains confident in his victory this fall, asserting that his deep understanding of the district makes him the right person to lead it.
尽管此次竞选事关全国大局，劳勒仍对今年秋天的胜选充满信心。他坚称自己对选区情况了如指掌，是带领该地区发展的最佳人选。
"Look, all politics is local," he said in an interview as he neared the end of the parade route.
“要知道，所有政治归根结底都是地方事务，”在游行路线即将走完时，他接受采访时说道，“我的选民们都了解我。那些单纯因为厌恶唐纳德·特朗普而投票的人，这是他们的权利与自由。但绝大多数选民更关心实际议题以及我们能提出的政策解决方案。我为能为这个选区做出的成绩感到自豪。”不过，作为共和党内的独立派人士开展竞选活动对现任议员而言或许并非易事，尤其是眼下选民们对生活成本高涨问题普遍忧心忡忡。
"My constituents know who I am," he said. "The people who are solely voting on the basis of their dislike of Donald Trump, that's their prerogative, that's their right. But the vast majority of my constituents care about the substance of issues and the policy solutions that we can forge. And I'm proud of the record that I've been able to deliver for this district." But campaigning as an independent voice within Trump's party may be a tough line for the sitting Republican to walk, especially as voters continue to raise alarm bells about the high cost of living.
在哈德逊河对岸、倾向自由派的韦斯特切斯特县境内的阿蒙克镇，布雷特·西尔弗斯坦正忙着照看在秋季嘉年华上嬉戏的孩子们。他将能源价格居高不下列为民众最担忧的问题之一。
Across the Hudson River in the town of Armonk, located within the more liberal-leaning Westchester County, Brett Silverstein is one of many parents trying to keep an eye on their kids as they run around the town's fall festival. He cites high energy prices as a top concern.
“你现在支付的商品价格虚高，是因为汽油和柴油的价格太贵了，”他说。他补充道，虽然他过去曾投票支持共和党人，但他不喜欢特朗普，因此对劳勒（Lawler）的竞选主张持怀疑态度。
"You're paying for goods that are inflated because of how much gasoline is and how much diesel is," he said, adding that while he used to vote for Republicans, he doesn't like Trump and in turn remains doubtful of Lawler's message.
“在过去两到四年里，他一直支持特朗普，支持某种意义上的整个‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）阵营，”他说。“考虑到他与这些势力的关联，我总体上不太喜欢他。”这种关联让一些在2022年首次支持劳勒的选民望而却步，其中包括自称温和派的迈克·门罗（Mike Monroe）。门罗在两年后投票反对这位在任国会议员，并计划在今年再次投下反对票。
"He's supported Trump and kind of the whole 'MAGA train' over the past 2 to 4 years," he said. "So given how he's affiliated with that, I'm just not a big fan of it in general." It's an association that's pushed away some of the voters that first backed Lawler in 2022, including self-described moderate Mike Monroe, who ended up casting a ballot against the sitting congressman two years later and plans to again this year.
“他基本上就是众议院版的苏珊·柯林斯（缅因州共和党参议员），”住在罗克兰县纳纽埃特镇的门罗说。“（劳勒）在某些情况下确实会反抗特朗普政府，但那都是在无关紧要的时候。”当地的民主党人也在走自己的政治钢丝。门罗现在是康利（Conley）的志愿者。康利在竞选过程中试图通过论证劳勒在国会的记录让纽约人的生活变得更糟，来争取民主党人以及心怀不满的共和党人和独立选民的支持。
"He's basically the House of Representatives' version of [Maine Republican Sen.] Susan Collins," said Monroe, who lives in the town of Nanuet, part of Rockland County. "[Lawler] stands up to the Trump administration in certain instances, but only when it doesn't matter." Democrats here walk their own political tight rope Monroe now volunteers for Conley, who's tried to appeal to Democrats as well as disaffected Republicans and Independents on the campaign trail by arguing that Lawler's record in Congress has made New Yorkers worse off.
“无论是共和党人、独立人士还是民主党人，这都不重要，”康利在接受采访时说。“无论政治立场如何，他们所感受到的痛苦都是真实的。”她补充道：“现在人们更难维持生计、负担房租、支付医疗费用或缴纳电费了。他们理应得到更好的待遇。而我会做得更好。”
"Whether it's somebody who's aed Republican, Independent or Democrat, [it] doesn't matter," Conley said in an interview. "The pain they're feeling is real for all, regardless of political affiliation." "It's harder to put food on the table, keep a roof over their heads, afford health care, or keep the lights on. And they deserve better. And I will be better," she added.
正在与纽约州共和党众议员迈克·劳勒竞选的民主党人凯特·康利（Cait Conley）希望通过争取民主党人和心怀不满的共和党人的支持，在11月的选举中获胜。
Cait Conley, the Democrat running against Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, hopes to appeal to Democrats and disaffected Republicans to win in November.
斯宾塞·普拉特（Spencer Platt）/盖蒂图片社北美分社 康利也试图将自己与党内可能令摇摆选民反感的派系区分开来，与纽约市议员、民主社会主义者佐兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）等左翼知名人物保持距离。她也没有公开与该州民主党籍州长凯西·霍楚尔（Kathy Hochul）一同竞选，后者因其经济和移民相关政策而受到劳勒（Lawler）及州内其他共和党人的批评。
Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America Conley has also tried to differentiate herself from factions of her party that could turn off swing voters, distancing from high-profile figures on the left like New York City Mayor and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani. She also hasn't publicly campaigned alongside the state's Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has faced criticism from Lawler and other Republicans in the state particularly over her economic and immigration-related policies.
对于这个选民党派色彩不那么强烈的选区来说，这可能是一种行之有效的策略。
It's a strategy that could prove helpful for this district where fewer voters are fiercely partisan.
“许多摇摆选区之所以是摇摆选区，仅仅是因为民主党和共和党的选民人数相当。但纽约州第17选区的情况并非如此，”民主党民调专家、Slingshot Strategies公司负责人埃文·罗斯·史密斯（Evan Roth Smith）表示。
"A lot of swing districts are just swing districts because they're equal number of Democrats and Republicans. That's not really what's going on in NY-17," said Evan Roth Smith, a democratic pollster who runs the firm Slingshot Strategies.
Slingshot进行的民调显示，该选区有30%到40%的选民要么会进行拆分投票，要么在个人党派认同上并不坚定。
Polling conducted by Slingshot shows that between 30 and 40 percent of voters in the district are either ticket splitters or are only loosely partisan in their personal identification with the parties.
“他们可能这一届投给共和党，下一届又投给民主党，”罗斯·史密斯说。“所以它之所以成为摇摆选区，是因为这里有很多摇摆选民。”居住在罗克兰郡北部斯托尼波因特（Stony Point）的退休建筑商迈克尔·阿尔瓦拉多（Michael Alvarado）就是这种情况。
"One cycle they might vote for a Republican, the next cycle they might vote for a Democrat," Roth Smith said. "So it's a swing district because there are a lot of swing voters." That's the case for retired builder Michael Alvarado, who lives in Stony Point, a town farther north within Rockland.
“谁的想法符合我的心意，我就投给谁，”他说。“我其实没有党派。我既不是共和党人也不是民主党人。事实上，比起共和党，我可能更偏向民主党。”尽管他说上次选举支持了劳勒，但今年他还在考虑中，他最关心的是支持一位支持工会、并能削减学校税和房产税的候选人。
"I vote for whoever thinks my way," he said. "I don't really have a party. I'm not a Republican or a Democrat. Actually I would say I'm more of a Democrat than a Republican." Though he says he supported Lawler last time, he's still deciding this year, and cares most about backing a candidate who is pro union and will cut school and property taxes.
当被问及目前是否有人在回应这些关切时，阿尔瓦拉多回答说“并没有”，但他补充说，他一定会去投票。
When asked if anyone is currently speaking to those concerns, Alvarado replies, "not really," but added, he always votes.
“我还在观察。看看十一月会发生什么。我们会听到所有的承诺。”
"I'm just looking. See what happens come November. We'll hear all the promises."