联合国贸易和发展会议（UNCTAD）于周五指出，受中东战争引发的能源价格上涨影响，全球经济稳定性面临考验，预计2026年全球经济增长率将从去年的2.9%降至2.6%。该机构同时预测，2027年全球经济增长率将维持在2.7%的水平。
Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.9% last year as higher energy prices driven by the Middle East war test economic and financial stability, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said Friday. In its Trade and Development Report 2026, the agency forecast global growth of 2.7% in 2027.
今年发展中国家经济预计增长4%，较2025年的4.7%有所放缓，同时还需应对技术壁垒及政策限制。去年全球商品与服务贸易额创下35万亿美元的历史新高，预计今年增幅为4%，这在一定程度上也受物价上涨推动。
Developing economies are expected to grow 4% this year, down from 4.7% in 2025, while facing new technological and policy barriers. Global goods and services trade is projected to expand 4%, after reaching a record $35 trillion last year, partly reflecting higher prices.
美国经济今年预计增长2.1%，2027年则降至1.8%。人工智能领域的投资及稳定的就业市场支撑了需求，但持续的高通胀削弱了实际工资水平。西欧地区则因投资疲软、贸易割裂及能源价格波动而发展受限；韩国与日本则受益于半导体及电子产品的旺盛需求。
AI supports uneven growth The US economy is forecast to grow 2.1% this year before slowing to 1.8% in 2027. AI investment and a stable labor market support demand, although persistent inflation erodes real wages. Western Europe remains constrained by weak investment, trade fragmentation and volatile energy prices, while South Korea and Japan benefit from demand for semiconductors and electronics.
UNCTAD代理秘书长佩德罗·曼努埃尔·莫雷诺指出，全球经济的韧性虽超出预期，但各国间发展差距正日益扩大。除少数增长迅速的亚洲国家外，多数发展中国家已难以追赶发达经济体。随着各国愈发注重战略安全目标，工业化、商品贸易及融入全球价值链已不再是实现收入增长的可靠途径。目前发达经济体占据了半导体、人工智能及清洁技术领域约70%的新增投资；发展中国家虽在关键矿产领域占据优势，却难以实现产品附加值提升。此外，资本流动的不确定性以及官方发展援助连续三年下滑的趋势也令人担忧。
Developing economies face barriers UNCTAD Acting Secretary-General Pedro Manuel Moreno said stronger-than-expected global resilience masked growing divergence. Outside a few fast-growing Asian economies, the developing world is no longer catching up with advanced economies, he said. Industrialization, goods trade and integration into global value chains are becoming less reliable routes to higher incomes as governments increasingly pursue strategic and national security objectives. Advanced economies account for around 70% of new investment in semiconductors, AI and clean technologies, Moreno said, while developing economies lead in critical minerals but struggle to add value. He also warned of volatile portfolio flows and an expected third consecutive annual decline in official development assistance.