国际货币基金组织（IMF）周四预测，由于美以主导的针对伊朗的战争，中东、北非和巴基斯坦地区今年经济产出将大幅下降，随后在2027年反弹至6.6%的增长，同时警告称，进一步的能源生产中断可能会使前景恶化。
The IMF on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year due to the US-Israeli-led war against Iran, followed by a rebound to 6.6% growth in 2027, while warning that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook.
国际货币基金组织表示，由于战争对能源生产、航运、旅游、贸易和信心造成影响，预计该地区产出将收缩1.3%。经济产出将在2027年大幅增加，但这些经济体的产出总体仍将低于战前预测。
The International Monetary Fund said the region's output was expected to contract by 1.3% as a result of the war's impact on energy production, shipping, tourism, trade and confidence. Economic output would increase sharply in 2027, but output in those economies would generally stay below pre-war projections.
国际货币基金组织在周四于迪拜发布的地区经济展望报告中表示，战争的影响巨大但不均衡，直接受到能源生产和航运中断冲击的石油出口经济体受创更重，而石油进口国表现出更强的韧性。
The war's impact had been substantial, but uneven, with oil-exporting economies directly affected by disruptions to energy production and shipping hit harder, and oil importers proving to be more resilient, the IMF said in its regional outlook released Thursday in Dubai.
国际货币基金组织表示，其基准情景假设冲突将在2027年初缓和，贸易将在年内逐步恢复正常，但前景仍笼罩在“极高的不确定性”之中。“主要风险源于能源生产和贸易路线进一步中断，这可能推高能源价格，”国际货币基金组织在一份概述其关键信息的声明中指出，外部金融条件也可能收紧。
The IMF said its baseline assumed that the conflict would abate in early 2027 and that trade would gradually normalize during the year, but it said the outlook remained clouded by "exceptionally high uncertainty." "The main risks derive from further disruption to energy production and trade routes that could drive energy prices higher," the IMF said in a statement outlining its key messages, noting external financial conditions could also tighten.
该组织表示，如果投资者重新评估人工智能驱动的生产率增益，且在对通胀和财政状况的担忧加剧之际利率进一步上升，外部金融条件也可能收紧。
External financial conditions could also tighten if investors reassess AI-driven productivity gains and interest rates rise further amid heightened concerns about inflation and fiscal positions, it said.
国际货币基金组织表示，石油进口国表现出更强的韧性，国内需求得到汇款和旅游流入、有利的金融条件，以及保护消费者免受大宗商品价格上涨冲击的及时政策应对的支撑。
Oil importers had proven more resilient, with domestic demand supported by remittances and tourism flows, favorable financial conditions, and prompt policy responses that safeguard consumers from higher commodity prices, the IMF said.
国际货币基金组织表示，高加索和中亚地区的增长正在向更可持续的步伐放缓，预测2026年经济产出将增长5.2%，2027年增长5%。
Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia was moderating toward a more sustainable pace, the IMF said, forecasting a 5.2% rise in economic output in 2026 and 5% in 2027.
国际货币基金组织重申了其在上周年会期间传达的核心主张，敦促政策制定者优先维护物价稳定，同时保持财政可持续性、维护央行独立性，并实施结构性改革以提高生产率和创造就业。
The IMF underscored the mantra it delivered during last week's annual meetings, urging policymakers to prioritize maintaining price stability, while preserving fiscal sustainability, maintaining central bank independence and enacting structural reforms to boost productivity and create jobs.