根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新预测，由于能源生产和霍尔木兹海峡航运的长期中断所带来的影响超过了高油气价格带来的好处，海湾经济体预计今年将出现明显收缩。
IMF《世界经济展望》10月报告指出，最易受碳氢化合物产出和运输中断影响的经济体将出现特别严重的下降，科威特、卡塔尔和巴林面临双位数收缩。
Saudi Arabia, UAE also expected to shrink as production and export disruptions outweigh gains from higher prices IMF forecasts point to a strong rebound in 2027, but recovery depends on restored production and trade Gulf economies are expected to shrink sharply this year as long-term disruptions to energy production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz outweigh the benefits of higher oil and gas prices, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts.
这种恶化凸显了地区性冲击的一个核心特征：当生产者无法维持生产或向客户交付出口时，更高的全球能源价格只能提供有限的保护。
The October World Economic Outlook points to particularly severe declines in economies most exposed to interruptions in hydrocarbon output and transport, with Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain facing double-digit contractions.
损害还不仅限于碳氢化合物领域，因为贸易疲软、成本上升和不确定性正在拖累商业活动，并使海湾经济体实现多元化的努力变得更加复杂。
The deterioration highlights a central feature of the regional shock: higher global energy prices offer limited protection when producers cannot maintain production or deliver exports to customers. The damage also extends beyond hydrocarbons, as weaker trade, higher costs and uncertainty weigh on business activity and complicate efforts to diversify Gulf economies.
较小的海湾生产国面临最严峻的下降。根据《世界经济展望》10月报告的公开内容，IMF预计科威特经济将在2026年收缩16.7%，而卡塔尔预计将收缩15.6%，巴林预计将收缩11.3%。
Smaller Gulf producers face steepest declines The IMF projects Kuwait's economy will contract 16.7% in 2026, while Qatar is expected to shrink 15.6% and Bahrain 11.3%, according to published accounts of the October report.
沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国也被预测将出现收缩，尽管幅度较小，这反映了其经济结构和受影响的出口路线暴露程度的差异。
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also forecast to contract, although by smaller margins, reflecting differences in economic structure and exposure to disrupted export routes.
沙特阿拉伯经济预计今年将收缩3.3%，这是对7月份预测的1.7%增长的急剧逆转。这一变化代表了仅三个月内下降了五个百分点。
Saudi Arabia's economy is projected to shrink 3.3% this year, a sharp reversal from the 1.7% growth forecast in July. The change represents a five-percentage-point downgrade in just three months.
IMF预计沙特阿拉伯的增长将在2027年反弹至7.9%，而此前的预测为5.5%，表明今年损失的部分活动可能在条件改善时恢复。
The IMF expects Saudi growth to rebound to 7.9% in 2027, compared with its previous projection of 5.5%, indicating that part of the activity lost this year could return as conditions improve.
阿联酋预计2026年将收缩3.9%，随后在明年将扩张7.7%。在六国海湾合作委员会之外，伊拉克面临预计16%的收缩，凸显了地区能源出口国因中断而面临的更广泛风险。
The UAE is forecast to contract 3.9% in 2026 before expanding 7.7% next year. Outside the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, Iraq faces a projected 16% contraction, underlining the broader exposure of regional energy exporters to the disruption.
这些数字是年度实际经济产出的预测，而非已确认的全年实际结果，仍受冲突进程和贸易恢复情况的影响。
These figures are projections for annual real economic output, rather than confirmed full-year outcomes, and remain sensitive to the course of the conflict and the restoration of trade.
随着中断持续，前景恶化 新的预测标志着较IMF春季评估的显著恶化。
Outlook deteriorates as disruption persists The new forecasts mark a substantial deterioration from the IMF's spring assessment.
4月份，基金仍预测海湾合作委员会整体在2026年将实现2%的增长。其国家预测包括卡塔尔收缩8.6%、科威特收缩0.6%和巴林收缩0.5%。
In April, the fund still projected 2% growth for the Gulf Cooperation Council as a whole in 2026. Its country forecasts included contractions of 8.6% for Qatar, 0.6% for Kuwait and 0.5% for Bahrain.
当时的预测假设冲突相对短暂，贸易将恢复且生产将在年中恢复正常。
That earlier outlook assumed a relatively short-lived conflict, with trade resuming and production normalizing by the middle of the year.
因此，中断的持续削弱了早期预测背后的核心假设，使经济体暴露于产出减少和物流受损的更长时期。
The persistence of disruption has therefore undermined a central assumption behind the earlier projections, leaving economies exposed to a longer period of reduced output and impaired logistics.
地理差异很重要。在其4月的地区简报中，IMF指出，由于阿曼的海上通道位于霍尔木兹海峡之外，其降幅更为有限。
The geographical differences are important. In its April regional briefing, the IMF highlighted that Oman faced a more limited downgrade because its access to the sea lies outside the Strait of Hormuz.
这一区别说明了为何替代出口路线的可用性可能与金融储备规模或全球油价水平一样，影响经济结果。
That distinction illustrates why the availability of alternative export routes can influence economic outcomes alongside the size of financial reserves or the level of global oil prices.
更高的油价无法弥补产出损失 IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告海湾财政部长和央行行长，于10月1日表示，随着碳氢化合物产出急剧下降以及非能源部门增长放缓，地区经济预计将收缩。
Higher prices cannot replace lost production IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned Gulf finance ministers and central bank governors on Oct. 1 that the regional economy was expected to contract as hydrocarbon production fell sharply and growth outside the sector slowed.
她指出霍尔木兹海峡近乎关闭、红海受阻以及能源设施受损，是出口和生产能力的限制因素。
She identified the near closure of Hormuz, disruption in the Red Sea and damage to energy facilities as constraints on exports and production capacity.
她还表示，贸易减少、企业信心下降以及必需品价格上涨也在限制非碳氢化合物活动。
Reduced trade, weaker business confidence and rising prices for essential goods were also restricting non-hydrocarbon activity, she said.
对于能源生产者来说，价格和产量之间的区别至关重要。每桶油价上涨可以支持已售石油的收入，但无法恢复因无法生产或运输而损失的石油桶数。
For energy producers, the distinction between prices and volumes is critical. A higher price per barrel can support receipts from the oil that is sold, but it does not restore barrels that cannot be produced or shipped.
实际GDP是在考虑价格变化后衡量的生产。因此，出口价格上涨并不会自动阻止经济在实际产出下降时出现收缩。
Real GDP measures production after accounting for price changes. Consequently, an increase in export prices does not automatically prevent an economy from contracting when physical output falls.
这也有助于解释为何能源冲击可能同时推高其他地区的进口成本，并降低供应这些商品国家的经济活动。
This also helps explain why an energy shock can simultaneously raise import costs elsewhere and reduce economic activity in the countries supplying those commodities.
强劲反弹无法弥补所有损失 国际货币基金组织的预测显示，随着生产、出口和物流恢复正常，明年多个受冲击最严重的经济体将出现显著复苏。
Strong rebound would not erase every loss The IMF's projections envisage substantial recoveries in several of the hardest-hit economies next year as production, exports and logistics normalize.
卡塔尔预计2027年增长18.8%，科威特17.1%，巴林13.9%。更广泛的中东和中亚地区预计在今年收缩0.3%后，明年将扩张6.3%。
Qatar is forecast to grow 18.8% in 2027, Kuwait 17.1% and Bahrain 13.9%. The broader Middle East and Central Asia region is projected to expand 6.3% after contracting 0.3% this year.
然而，大幅度的百分比反弹部分反映了今年收缩所导致的较低起点。
However, large percentage rebounds partly reflect the lower starting point created by this year's contractions.
应用预测的年度变化可以说明这一区别。科威特的产出将从2025年的指数100降至2026年的83.3，然后在2027年恢复至约97.5。因此，尽管实现两位数增长，其产出仍将比2025年水平低约2.5%。
Applying the projected annual changes illustrates the distinction. Kuwait's output would fall from an index of 100 in 2025 to 83.3 in 2026, then recover to approximately 97.5 in 2027. It would therefore remain about 2.5% below its 2025 level despite double-digit growth.
卡塔尔的预测收缩和反弹将使产出大约恢复到2025年的水平。无论哪种计算方式，都未考虑如果未发生中断本可能实现的额外产出。
Qatar's projected contraction and rebound would bring output approximately back to its 2025 level. Neither calculation captures the additional production that might have occurred had the disruption never happened.
金融缓冲和物流塑造韧性 格奥尔基耶娃表示，政府措施以及在能源和物流基础设施方面的投资有助于控制更广泛的冲击，包括通过 rerouting 供应以及支持企业和银行。她仍然强调，金融缓冲无法替代对贸易冲击的物理韧性。
Financial buffers and logistics shape resilience Georgieva said government measures and investment in energy and logistics infrastructure had helped contain the wider fallout, including through rerouting supplies and supporting firms and banks. She nevertheless stressed that financial buffers cannot substitute for physical resilience to trade shocks.
国际货币基金组织指出，海合会铁路和沙特陆桥项目有望通过改善替代性交通连接，减少霍尔木兹海峡关闭可能造成的损失。
The IMF has highlighted the potential for the GCC Railway and Saudi Landbridge projects to reduce losses from a Hormuz closure by improving alternative transport connections.
其政策建议主张在必要时提供临时性、有针对性的支持，而在主要瓶颈是供应链中断时避免实施广泛性刺激。
Its policy advice calls for temporary, targeted support where needed, while avoiding broad stimulus when the principal constraint is disrupted supply.
随着情况恢复正常，基金建议重建金融缓冲，并继续投资于多元化和经济安全。
As conditions normalize, the fund recommends rebuilding financial buffers and maintaining investment in diversification and economic security.