曼谷，10月15日：国际货币基金组织周四表示，中东地区长期战争以及能源生产、航运路线或关键基础设施的进一步中断，对中东和中亚地区经济构成最大风险。
BANGKOK, Oct 15 : Prolonged war in the Middle East and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure pose the biggest risk to economies in the Middle East and Central Asia, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.
国际货币基金组织中东和中亚地区主管吉哈德·阿祖尔对记者表示，战争正在对更广泛的地区造成高度不均衡的经济冲击，直接受影响的国家面临巨大压力。
Jihad Azour, the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters the war was imposing a highly uneven economic shock to the broader region, with directly affected states under severe pressure.
“前景取决于能源生产和贸易恢复正常的速度，以及各国维持宏观经济稳定的能力，”阿祖尔在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会期间的新闻发布会上表示。
"The outlook depends critically on how quickly energy production and trade normalize, and on countries’ ability to preserve macroeconomic stability," Azour said at a news conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok.
战前的盈余、替代路线、需求调整以及大量库存削减曾帮助缓解由美以领导的对伊朗袭击以及德黑兰随后关闭霍尔木兹海峡所引发的能源冲击的影响。
Pre-war surpluses, alternative routes, demand adjustments and substantial inventory drawdowns had helped contain the impact of the energy shock caused by the US-Israeli-led attacks on Iran and Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“这些缓冲措施争取了时间，但它们是有限的。库存水平较低，闲置产能更紧张，一旦再次出现中断，可能导致更大幅度的价格调整，”他说。
"These buffers bought time, but they are finite.
全球贷款机构预测，中东、北非和巴基斯坦地区在2025年实现3.3%的增长后，将出现1.3%的深度收缩，随后在2027年将出现强劲但不均衡的反弹，届时增长预计将达到6.6%。阿祖尔指出，地区间存在显著差异。
Inventories are lower, spare capacity is tighter, and renewed disruption could generate much larger price adjustments," he said. The global lender is forecasting a deep contraction of 1.3 per cent in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region after growth of 3.3 per cent in 2025, followed by a strong, but uneven rebound in 2027, when growth is expected to hit 6.6 per cent, Azour said, noting substantial differences across the region.
直接受战争影响的石油输出国将在2026年出现显著收缩，并在2027年随着能源生产恢复正常而实现增长的急剧反弹，但产出预计仍将低于战前的中期预测。
Oil-exporting countries directly affected by the war would see a significant contraction in 2026 and a sharp rebound in growth in 2027 as energy production normalizes, but output was expected to remain below pre-war medium-term projections.
他表示，该地区石油进口国的经济一直表现出韧性，并预计将继续保持韧性。
The economies of oil-importing countries in the region had been resilient and were expected to remain so, he said.
高加索和中亚地区相对较好地抵御了冲击，通胀预计将从高位继续下降。国际货币基金组织预测，2025年增长率为6.2%，2026年将放缓至5.2%，2027年进一步降至5%。阿祖尔表示，政策制定者应优先考虑价格稳定，重点放在重建财政缓冲区，并提升抵御未来冲击的能力。
The Caucasus and Central Asia region had weathered the shock relatively well and inflation was expected to continue declining from elevated levels. The IMF is projecting growth to slow to 5.2 per cent in 2026 and then 5 per cent in 2027, from growth of 6.2 per cent in 2025. Azour said policymakers should prioritize price stability, focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers and expand their capacity to withstand future shocks.