国际货币基金组织将2026年中东和中亚地区的增长预期大幅下调，因持续的战争使经济陷入急剧衰退。在其最新的《世界经济展望》报告中，IMF表示，该地区经济预计将收缩0.3%，而六个月前的预测仍为增长1.9%。该组织指出，“与四月报告的基线假设相比，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭时间更长”，并基于该水道预计将重新开放的预期，预测2027年将出现主要反弹。自中东战争于2月下旬因美以对伊朗的打击爆发以来，德黑兰一直试图对霍尔木兹海峡施加控制，多次袭击未获其授权而通过的船只。
The International Monetary Fund has sharply cut growth forecasts for the Middle East and Central Asia in 2026, as the ongoing war has sent economies into a tailspin. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said the regional economy was projected to contract by 0.3 percent, compared to its projected 1.9 percent growth six months ago. It cited "a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, compared with the baseline assumptions in the April" report, predicting a major rebound in 2027 based on the expected reopening of the waterway. Since the Middle East war began in late February with US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran has sought to impose its control over the Strait of Hormuz, repeatedly attacking ships that transit without its authorisation.
美国对伊朗港口实施了自己的反封锁措施，并日益增加地护航友好船只通过该水道。根据国际货币基金组织的报告，受航运和生产中断影响最严重的国家是伊拉克、科威特、卡塔尔和巴林，这些国家在交战期间都遭受了石油设施的损毁。报告指出，这些国家“预计将在2026年经历两位数的经济收缩，随后在2027年实现两位数的经济增长，因为生产、出口和物流将恢复正常”。
The United States has imposed its own counter-blockade on Iranian ports, and has escorted friendly ships through the waterway in increasing numbers. According to the IMF, the countries most affected by shipping and production disruptions are Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, all of which suffered damage to oil installations during the fighting. They are "projected to experience double-digit contractions of their economies in 2026, followed by double-digit expansions in 2027 as production, exports, and logistics normalise".Saudi Arabia's GDP is expected to contract by 3.3 percent this year, before rebounding to 7.9 percent growth next year, the global lender said.
国际货币基金组织表示，沙特阿拉伯的国内生产总值预计今年将收缩3.3%，明年将反弹至7.9%的增长。该预测是在上周开始的一系列致命袭击利雅得机场之前作出的。基金组织指出，作为世界最大原油出口国的沙特阿拉伯是该地区受影响最小的国家之一，理由是其“拥有更多元化的出口路线”的经济体。沙特阿拉伯利用其东西向输油管道绕过霍尔木兹海峡，将原油输送至红海海岸。
The forecast was made before a series of deadly attacks on the Riyadh airport that began last week. The fund noted that the kingdom the world's largest crude exporter is among the least affected in the region, pointing to "an economy with more diversified export routes".Saudi Arabia has made use of its East-West oil pipeline to bypass the Hormuz strait and send crude to its Red Sea coast.
然而，该管道在九月曾因遭到伊朗支持的伊拉克武装团体发动的袭击而被迫临时关闭。此外，也门胡塞武装——伊朗在也门的盟友——自其与也门利雅得支持的政府之间的内战在七月重新爆发以来，一直反复袭击沙特的石油基础设施及其在红海的油轮。拥有霍尔木兹海峡两侧海岸线的阿拉伯联合酋长国预计其经济将收缩3.9%。
However, the pipeline was temporarily shut in September after it was hit by strikes blamed on Iran-backed groups in Iraq. And Tehran's allies in Yemen, the Houthis, have repeatedly targeted Saudi oil infrastructure and its tankers in the Red Sea since their civil war with Yemen's Riyadh-backed government reignited in July. The United Arab Emirates, which has coastal access to both sides of the Hormuz strait, is projected to see its economy contract by 3.9 percent.
阿曼是海湾地区唯一预计今年将保持正增长的国家，增幅为2.4%。国际货币基金组织还预测伊朗的前景将出现收缩，由于战争、封锁和美国制裁，其国内生产总值将下降7.6%。其他阿拉伯国家预计在面对能源和食品价格冲击时将保持“相对韧性”。
Oman is the only country in the Gulf that is expected to maintain positive growth this year, at 2.4 percent. The IMF also projected a contraction of Iran's outlook, with a 7.6 percent decline in GDP as a result of the war, the blockade and US sanctions. Other Arab countries are expected to remain "relatively resilient" in the face of price shocks from energy and food, the lender