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特朗普宣布与俄罗斯达成柴油协议以降低油价Trump announces diesel deal with Russia in bid to lower prices

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俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京同意向全球市场供应柴油,特朗普总统说,此举可能在一定程度上缓解价格压力,但实际上使华盛顿与莫斯科站在一起,反对乌克兰及其对俄罗斯能源基础设施的轰炸。

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to supply diesel fuel to the global marketplace, President Donald Trump said, a move that could ease prices somewhat but effectively aligns Washington with Moscow and against Ukraine and its bombing of Russian energy infrastructure.

特朗普在社交媒体上称与普京进行了一次“高度成功的讨论”,并写道:“俄罗斯将立即向美国和全球市场供应30万吨柴油,11月份再供应50万吨,随后立即供应100万吨。” 这一交易的宣布是特朗普在距中期选举不到一个月时努力应对能源价格的举措,而能源价格已成为其党派的主要问题。

Touting a “highly successful discussion” with Putin, who has been escalating daytime attacks on civilians in Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, Trump wrote on social media that “Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter.”The announcement of the deal was a measure of Trump’s struggle to address energy prices less than a month ahead of the midterm elections, in which energy prices have become a major problem for his party.

分析人士表示,涉及的数字仅占美国每日柴油产量和消费的很小一部分,短期内对价格的影响可能有限。俄罗斯一直未出口柴油,以保留用于战争的燃料,许多俄罗斯城市的加油站排队长龙绵延数个街区。

The figures involved are a small slice of daily U.S. diesel production and consumption, and the immediate price impact was likely to be muted, analysts said. Russia hasn’t been exporting any diesel in a bid to conserve it for its war effort, as lines at fuel stations stretch for blocks in many Russian cities.

特朗普的宣布伴随着美国财政部解除对俄罗斯柴油的制裁,财政部表示,向美国销售该燃料的许可将持续至四月。

Trump’s announcement was accompanied by a lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel by the Treasury Department, which said that sales of the fuel to the United States would be allowed until April.

“特朗普现在愿意为了全球能源市场的一个四舍五入误差而削弱自己的制裁。这充分说明了他的绝望,”独立风险咨询顾问、密切关注石油市场和油轮动向的布雷特·埃里克森说。

“Trump is now willing to undermine his own sanctions for what amounts to a rounding error in global energy markets. That speaks volumes about his desperation,” said Brett Erickson, an independent risk advisory consultant who closely tracks oil markets and tanker movements.

对乌克兰-俄罗斯战争的影响可能更为显著。近几个月来,乌克兰无人机对俄罗斯炼油厂的攻击日益成功,扰乱了该国的燃料供应,已成为对克里姆林宫最有效的压力手段之一。

The impact on the Ukraine-Russia war could be more significant. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have been increasingly successful at disrupting the country’s fuel supplies in recent months and have emerged as among its most effective pressure tactics against the Kremlin.

这笔交易立即遭到了乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基以及民主党的强烈谴责;民主党人士批评特朗普在处理汽油价格和外交政策方面的失误。

The deal drew immediate condemnation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and from Democrats who have criticized Trump’s handling of gas prices and foreign policy.

泽连斯基在社交媒体上写道:“送给普京的‘礼物’不会给文明世界带来和平或任何好处;俄罗斯只会用更多的恐怖主义和背信弃义行为来‘回报’我们。”他还表示:“允许俄罗斯出售石油产品无异于为这场必须结束的战争‘投资’。”纽约州参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默指出:“特朗普正在与魔鬼做交易,试图通过自己在中东发动的鲁莽、非法战争所导致的汽油价格飙升来挽救自己摇摇欲坠的政治地位。”

上个月,特朗普宣布促成了俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的一项协议,要求双方停止攻击对方的能源基础设施——但双方实际上并未正式签署该协议。

“Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world. Russia will ‘repay’ the diesel with further terror and perfidy,” Zelensky wrote on X. “Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.”“Trump is doing a deal with the devil to try to help his flailing political fortunes from the shockingly high diesel prices caused by his own reckless, illegal war in the Middle East,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York) wrote on Last month, Trump announced that he had facilitated an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure — a deal that neither side signed onto.

特朗普也曾考虑实施美国柴油出口禁令,但他的顾问们认为这一举措可能弊大于利。官员们解释称,由于炼油厂的生产流程,柴油出口禁令很可能会推高汽油价格。上周,特朗普宣布将在年底前暂停对某些地区的柴油税收政策(这些地区主要集中在农业州)。

Trump also contemplated a ban on U.S. exports of diesel before his advisers shot down the idea as likely to do more harm than good. A diesel export ban would almost certainly raise the cost of gasoline because of the way refineries produce the two fuels, officials said. Last week, Trump announced a move to stop enforcing some federal diesel tax laws for drivers, mostly in farm states, through the end of the year.

由于高昂的汽油价格已成为特朗普面临的一大政治压力,他迫切希望为民众提供缓解措施。目前全国柴油平均价格为每加仑6.28美元,民众对此感到极度不满;这种情绪成为民主党在原本被认为难以获胜的选区(尤其是中西部地区)取得支持的重要因素(去年柴油平均价格仅为每加仑3.68美元)。

Trump is eager to bring drivers relief, as crushing prices at the pump have become a massive political liability. Frustrations with diesel prices that average $6.28 per gallon nationwide are a big factor in the polling gains Democrats are making in districts not long ago seen as out of reach for the party, especially in the Midwest. Diesel prices averaged $3.68 per gallon a year ago.

然而,白宫短期内几乎没有可行的办法来降低柴油价格。柴油价格的飙升远远超出了特朗普2月份攻击伊朗后全球油价上涨的幅度;作为回应,伊朗限制了原油通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输。

The White House, however, has few viable options for bringing down the price of diesel anytime soon. Diesel prices have skyrocketed beyond the overall oil price increases that followed Trump’s February attack on Iran and Tehran’s response, which was to squeeze crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

周五的这项协议不太可能大幅降低柴油价格,因为俄罗斯出口到美国的柴油量仅占美国柴油总需求的一小部分。

Friday’s move is unlikely to bring diesel prices down substantially, as the amount of Russian fuel that would come to the U.S. is a small fraction of demand.

根据欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)的石油分析师格雷戈里·布鲁(Gregory Brew)在社交媒体上的分析,美国每天国内生产360万桶柴油,其中约三分之一用于出口。根据该协议,短期内俄罗斯将向美国市场额外供应约7.4万桶柴油。不过,布鲁也质疑这项协议的可行性——毕竟俄罗斯目前正面临严重的柴油短缺问题。

The U.S. produces 3.6 million barrels per day domestically, about a third of it being exported to markets abroad. The Russia deal would make available to the U.S. market roughly an additional 74,000 barrels a day in the short term, according to Gregory Brew, an oil analyst at the Eurasia Group who posted about the deal on X. He also questioned the viability of the deal at a time when Russia faces an intense diesel shortage.

由于乌克兰方面的攻击,俄罗斯的柴油供应量急剧下降。要想让这项协议真正生效,俄罗斯似乎必须暂时停止对乌克兰的军事行动。鉴于乌克兰在继续战斗方面高度依赖特朗普的支持,它可能别无选择,只能接受这一协议。

Russia’s diesel supply has dropped precipitously as a result of the Ukrainian attacks. For the deal to work, it would seem to require a pause in those efforts. Ukraine may have little choice but to go along, given its broader dependence on Trump’s goodwill to keep fighting.

此次公告发布之际,乌克兰谈判代表及欧洲高级安全官员正在迈阿密与特朗普的特使史蒂夫·威特科夫(Steve Witkoff)和贾里德·库什纳(Jared Kushner)会面,旨在推动与俄罗斯的和平谈判。随着俄罗斯对乌克兰城市的攻击不断升级,乌克兰在冬季面临的形势将更加严峻。

The announcement came as Ukrainian negotiators and top European security officials met in Miami with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, in what had been billed as an attempt to reboot peace talks with Russia ahead of the winter, which is expected to be tough for Ukraine amid Russia’s escalating attacks on cities.

俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)周五晚些时候对俄罗斯国家媒体表示,俄罗斯将“立即”解除对柴油出口的限制。诺瓦克还表示,随着炼油厂完成维护工作,俄罗斯在11月和12月的柴油出口量可能会增加。不过他并未说明这些柴油将来自何处——毕竟俄罗斯国内本身就存在严重的燃料短缺问题。

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Russian state media late Friday that the country will begin lifting restrictions on diesel exports “immediately.”Novak said that the country may increase diesel exports in November and December as oil refineries complete maintenance work. He added that, despite this, the Russian market would remain “fully” supplied with the fuel, without explaining where the supplies would come from, given the existing shortages.

特朗普与普京的这项协议签署的时间距离国会通过并批准相关法律仅过去不到一个月。该法律赋予总统广泛的权力,允许其对俄罗斯及其能源行业实施新的制裁(即《2026年制裁俄罗斯和伊朗法案》)。

Trump’s agreement with Putin comes less than a month after Congress passed and Trump signed a law that gave the president sweeping powers to impose new sanctions on Russia and its energy industry, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.

上个月末,特朗普放弃了实施柴油出口禁令的计划,随后向欧洲施压,要求其释放部分柴油库存,这在一定程度上帮助降低了柴油价格。不过,包括与俄罗斯达成的协议在内的这些举措大多只是象征性的举动,不太可能使柴油价格恢复到美国和以色列袭击伊朗之前的水平。

After dropping the idea of a diesel export ban late last month, Trump pressured Europe to release some of its inventories of diesel, which has helped bring prices down marginally. But the actions — including the deal with Russia — are largely performative and unlikely to do much to bring diesel prices back down to anything close to where they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, energy analysts said.

能源分析师指出,柴油短缺的根本原因在于全球炼油基础设施的严重不足。中东和俄罗斯的炼油厂及其他生产设施遭受了严重破坏,这些价值数十亿美元的设施需要很长时间才能修复并重新投入运营。

The fundamental problem underlying the diesel shortage is a global shortage of refining infrastructure. The damage done to refineries and other production infrastructure in the Middle East and in Russia has taken a major toll. These are multibillion-dollar facilities that cannot be quickly repaired and brought back online.

特朗普为保护霍尔木兹海峡上的船只而实施的军事行动确实增加了通过该海峡运输的原油量,使其在许多日子里的运输量接近战前的水平。然而,这并不能解决柴油短缺的问题——因为这些原油仍需要经过炼制才能成为企业和消费者真正能够使用的产品,而全球的炼油能力已经大幅下降。

Trump’s military operation to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz has helped boost the amounts of crude oil making it through the waterway to levels nearing those of before the war on many days. But that does not solve the diesel problem. That crude needs to be refined into products businesses and consumers actually use. The capacity to refine it has been deeply diminished globally.

“这些举措确实给人一种印象,即美国现在对俄罗斯的炼油系统状况表现出直接关注,”莱斯大学贝克公共政策研究所的能源市场专家马克·芬利(Mark Finley)说道。

“It does give the appearance the U.S. now has a direct interested in the health of Russia’s refining system,” said Mark Finley, an energy markets expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.