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欧洲负债国开始对市场的怒火退缩Europe’s Indebted Nations Are Starting to Blink at Market Wrath

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巴黎泛欧交易所股价信息。摄影师:Nathan Laine/BloombergStock price information at the Euronext NV stock exchange in Paris. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

克雷格·斯特林 欧洲的政治阶层正表现出首次顺应无情债券市场意愿的迹象。

Europe’s political class is showing the first signs of bending to the will of an unforgiving bond market.

过去几周,随着收益率飙升和利息成本激增唤起人们对欧元区债务危机的记忆,从伦敦到巴黎和罗马的预算政策和言论已迈出迈向审慎的小步。

Budget policies and discourse from London to Paris and Rome have taken baby steps toward prudence in the past couple of weeks as surging yields and soaring interest-rate costs drummed up memories of the euro-zone debt crisis.

法国的预算旨在缩小其膨胀的赤字,而极右翼总统候选人玛丽娜·勒庞的务实迹象也表明其正在摆脱挥霍无度。英国首相安迪·伯纳姆提出终止英国标志性的“三重锁定”养老金制度的提议,以及意大利削减国防借贷的举措,也同样如此。

France’s budget aimed at shrinking its bloated deficit, and signs of pragmatism from far-right presidential challenger Marine Le Pen suggest retreats from profligacy. Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s proposal to end the UK’s totemic “triple-lock” state pension regime and Italy’s pared-back defense borrowing do so too.

这些让步可能不足以威慑那些曾经通过投机交易几乎摧毁欧元的债券 vigilantes(注:此处保留原术语,因其为金融领域特定称谓,直译可能失准,但根据上下文可理解为“债券市场的激进投机者”或“债券 vigilante”作为专有概念使用)。此外,目前还过早地判断这些举措是否构成了七国集团中负债国家的根本性转变,还是仅仅是短暂的姿态。

Such concessions may fall short of deterrence against the bond vigilantes whose speculative trading once nearly broke the euro. It’s also too early to tell whether they amount to a sea change for an indebted subset of the Group of Seven, or just short-lived gestures.

但旅行的方向表明,推动债券收益率升至数十年最高水平的投资者的信息正开始被听到。这一点尤为明显,因为与华盛顿形成了鲜明对比——在那里,政治家们 arguably(即可以说)对阻止债务快速上升的需求关注较少。

But the direction of travel signals the message from investors who pushed bond yields to the highest in decades is starting to get heard. That’s all the more noticeable given the contrast with Washington, where politicians are arguably less focused on the need to stop rapidly rising debt.

“财政问题的承认现在我认为在欧洲的政策制定者、经济行为者中已经被广泛理解,而且可能也正在越来越多地被大众所理解,” said 费德里科·巴里加-萨拉扎尔,惠誉评级西欧主权债券团队负责人。

“Acknowledgement of fiscal problems is now I think well understood in Europe around the policy makers, around economic actors and probably now also more and more around the population,” said Federico Barriga-Salazar, head of the western European sovereigns team at Fitch Ratings.

近年来几周,随着金融市场因中东能源危机而准备应对更大的价格压力,发达经济体的债券出现下跌。

Bonds slumped around advanced economies in recent weeks as financial markets braced for greater price pressures driven by the Middle East energy crisis.

法国尤为突出,投资者持有法国10年期国债所要求的相较于德国国债的额外收益率达到自2011年以来的最高水平。

France stood out, with the extra yield demanded by investors to hold French 10-year bonds compared with those of Germany hitting its highest since 2011.

意大利的利差也随之飙升,这种溢出效应凸显了:尽管其赤字相比北方邻国更为温和,但其债务规模仍将很快成为欧洲最大的债务山,无法被掩盖。

Italy’s spread surged too, spillover that underscores how a tamer deficit than its northern neighbor can’t obscure a debt mountain that will soon be Europe’s biggest.

英国的国债收益率已升至数十年来的高点,其中的定价包含了彭博经济学所计算的30个基点的风险溢价,以反映前首相利兹·特拉斯的政策失误所带来的特别影响。这些波动引发了欧洲权力中心的警觉。

The UK has seen its own bond yields hit multi-decade highs, with pricing that includes what Bloomberg Economics calculates as a 30 basis-point risk premium to reflect in particular the policy missteps of former prime minister Liz Truss. Such gyrations have sparked alarm in Europe’s corridors of power.

“我所强调的是财政审慎的必要性,尤其是在当前债券市场发展的背景下,”欧盟委员会财政事务负责人瓦尔迪斯·东布罗夫斯基斯周四表示,他正在反对意大利和希腊关于增加预算灵活性的提议。

“What I am emphasizing is the need for fiscal prudence, especially in the light of current bond-market developments,” European Commission finance chief Valdis Dombrovskis said on Thursday, pushing back against proposals from Italy and Greece for additional budget leeway.

尽管如此,初步证据表明,尽管政客们需要在关键经济体的即将到来的选举中争取选民,但他们正在更加关注收益率。

Even so, the tentative evidence suggests that, despite the need to woo voters for upcoming tests in key economies, politicians are paying more attention to yields.

“我们预计反对党,尤其是在法国、意大利、波兰和西班牙——这些国家今年及明年将举行选举——将更加努力地向市场保证他们有意愿控制赤字,”Scope Ratings主权及公共部门副主管卡洛·卡普阿诺表示。

“We would expect opposition political parties, particularly in France, Italy, Poland and Spain where elections are due this year and next, to try much harder to reassure markets about their willingness to keep deficits in check,” said Carlo Capuano, deputy head of sovereign & public sector at Scope Ratings.

一位不愿具名的欧元区高级官员因该事敏感性而匿名发言,上周表示,债券市场正在施加某种纪律。

A senior euro-zone official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, observed last week that bond markets are imposing some discipline.

早在9月24日,随着法国国债收益率的上涨势头增强,勒庞试图避免被视为制造麻烦的始作俑者。她当时表示,她可能会克制自己,不要因2027年预算而试图推翻政府。

Already on Sept. 24, as the surge in French yields gained momentum, Le Pen sought to avoid being seen as an instigator of trouble. She indicated then that she may refrain from trying to topple the government over the 2027 budget.

“债券市场危机可能会在一夜之间爆发,”勒庞说。“我在考虑什么才是符合我国家和我人民利益的事情。”

“A bond market crisis could erupt overnight,” Le Pen said. “I’m thinking of what’s in the interest of my country and my people.”

一周后公布的预算包含了430亿欧元(约合483亿美元)的措施,旨在将明年的赤字从5.4%降至5%——财政部长罗兰·勒斯库尔将这一计划称为“重要努力”。勒庞本人提出的将2027年赤字降至低至3.7%的方案,尽管细节不足,但同样被视为一种表面上的审慎让步。

The budget presented a week later featured €43 billion ($48.3 billion) in measures to bring the deficit down to 5% next year from 5.4% — a plan touted by Finance Minister Roland Lescure as a “significant effort.”Le Pen’s own proposals for a deficit cut to as low as 3.7% in 2027, albeit lacking in detail, similarly amounts to an ostensible concession toward prudence.

必须承认,金融市场的压力在某种程度上帮助了我们——今天,我还没有听到任何政党呼吁财政宽松,”莱斯克尔本周在巴黎对AJEF记者协会表示。“我甚至觉得勒庞也转向了财政纪律。”与此同时,意大利方面,上周利差的扩大似乎已经让总理乔治亚·梅洛尼感到担忧,以至于她在最后一刻决定削减国防借款,规模高达80亿欧元。罗马现在计划在未来两年内将军事开支从产出的0.9%降至0.6%。

‘It has to be recognized that the pressure from financial markets helps us a bit — today, I’ve not heard a party calling for fiscal easing,” Lescure told the AJEF journalist association in Paris this week. “I have the impression that even Le Pen has converted to fiscal discipline.”In Italy meanwhile, the widening spread last week appeared to have concerned Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni enough to prompt a last-minute cutback in defense borrowing totaling as much as €8 billion. Rome now intends to spend 0.6% of output on more military outlays over two years, down from 0.9%.

伯恩汉姆在9月29日的党大会演讲所带来的全部财政影响尚不明确,尽管他承诺通过改革来避免在多年政治模棱两可之后继续制造巨额养老金增长,这 arguably 具有高度象征意义。他誓言要“向市场和世界传递信心与稳定的信号。”可以肯定的是,伯恩汉姆自己之前曾表示,英国应减少对债券市场的“依赖”,而许多欧洲政客也表达了类似的观点。

The full fiscal implications of Burnham’s party conference speech on Sept. 29 are unclear, though his pledge for a reform to avoid perpetuating drastic pension increases after years of political prevarication is arguably highly symbolic. He vowed to “project a message of confidence and stability to markets and the world.”To be sure, Burnham himself previously said that the UK should be less “in hock” to the bond markets, and plenty of European politicians have signaled similar sentiments.

勒庞的赤字主张伴随着对欧洲央行的挑衅性呼吁,要求其提供帮助;而她的法国左翼总统竞争对手让-吕克·梅朗雄则主张取消政府债务。与此同时,比利时自身也背负着庞大的债务,仍在努力达成预算协议。

Le Pen’s deficit message was accompanied by a defiant call on the European Central Bank to help out, while her French left-wing rival for the presidency, Jean-Luc Melenchon, wants a cancellation of government debt. Meanwhile Belgium, with bloated borrowings of its own, is still struggling to reach a budget agreement.

为了推动行动,央行行长们必须在私下和公开场合承担起最多的审慎说教责任。

To spur action, it falls on central bankers to do the most preaching for prudence, both in private and public.

周四,欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩表示,“政府必须认识到利率环境已经发生变化。”而英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利警告称,财政政策必须“指向稳定,并被市场视为可信。”可以说,对政府最具启发性的是,在特拉斯短暂执政期间的“迷你危机”中,英国曾被债券 vigilantes( vigilante bond traders)给予了一次谦卑的教训。

On Thursday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said that “governments have to be realistic about the fact that the interest rate environment has changed,” while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that fiscal policy must “be directed toward stability and be seen by markets as credible.”Arguably most instructive for governments, though, is the UK’s humbling by bond vigilantes during the “mini crisis” under Truss’s brief leadership.

梅洛尼在该事件发生时上任,此前在2011年市场动荡期间,西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼政府垮台时,她曾担任部长。惠誉的巴里加-萨拉扎认为,特拉斯事件是对欧洲政策制定者的一个寓言。

Meloni took office at the time of that episode, and previously served as a minister when Silvio Berlusconi’s government fell during the market tumult of 2011. Barriga-Salazar at Fitch sees the Truss incident as a parable for Europe’s policymakers.

“作为政治家,你说‘好吧,我们不在乎市场’,就会发生这样的事,”该分析师说。“我认为这些教训已经被吸取了。”

“It is what happens when you say as a politician, ‘well, we don’t care about the market,’” the analyst said. “I think those lessons have been learned.”