最近，特朗普总统在白宫为达里奥·阿莫代（Dario Amodei）举行了这场非同寻常的晚餐会。阿莫代是人工智能公司 Anthropic 的首席执行官。为何突然安排这样的私人会面呢？因为阿莫代认为人工智能存在潜在的安全风险，因此希望减缓其发展速度，并呼吁政府对此进行监管。然而，特朗普却将这些安全担忧称为“骗局”，并坚决反对任何形式的监管或发展放缓措施。
Recently, President Trump hosted an unusual dinner for two at the White House, dining alone with Dario Amodei, CEO of artificial intelligence company Anthropic. Why the sudden tete-a-tete? Because Amodei sees existential safety issues with AI and wants to slow its development. He has called for government regulation. Trump has called the safety concerns “a hoax.”He opposes any slowdown or regulation.
为什么人工智能如今变得如此重要且紧迫呢？几乎在一夜之间，人工智能已成为我们经济的核心驱动力。事实上，只有依靠人工智能带来的高 GDP 增长，我们才能在不大幅削减开支或增加税收的情况下履行国家债务义务。虽然 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 是这两家最知名的人工智能企业，但它们实际上并未实现完全的产业整合；大部分与人工智能相关的经济活动实际上是由其他众多企业（尤其是那些已经投入了超过 1 万亿美元的大型企业）推动的。
Why is AI suddenly so consequential and urgent? Almost overnight, AI has become the beating heart of our economy. Realistically, AI-spurred high GDP growth is the only way we can meet our national debt obligations without drastic spending cuts or onerous tax increases. While the two highest-profile AI companies, Anthropic and OpenAI, are the essential core of this new industry, they are not fully integrated enterprises. Most AI economic activity is being generated by a large constellation of other players — mainly hyperscalers, which have already invested more than $1 trillion.
从政府的经济统计数据中可以明显看出人工智能对经济的重要性：根据美国经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）的数据，今年第一季度，人工智能相关领域（包括计算机和外围设备）的投资贡献了实际 GDP 增长（2.5%）的四分之一。尽管第二季度经济增长有所放缓，但第三季度又恢复了增长势头。根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行（Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank）的预测，第三季度实际 GDP 增长率达到了 3.6%。
Given this very widespread activity, the centrality of AI to the economy can best be discerned from government economic statistics. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the first quarter of this year, investment in the AI-dominated industry category of computers and peripherals contributed about one-quarter of the 2.5 percent growth in real GDP. After slowing in the second quarter, likely, it rebounded in the third. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDPNow estimate, real GDP growth accelerated to a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the third quarter.
虽然 GDPNow 的数据并未详细区分国内私人投资与公共投资的具体构成，但总体而言，非住宅类固定资产投资占据了 GDP 增长的近 16%。因此，投资者将人工智能视为现代版的“工业革命”。
While GDPNow does not break down domestic private investment, overall nonresidential fixed investment accounted for nearly 1.6 percent — almost half — of that growth. With some good reason, investors see AI as the modern equivalent of the Industrial Revolution.
根据《纽约时报》的报道，成立仅五年的Anthropic一直在期待通过首次公开募股筹集1000亿美元，这将使公司估值达到惊人的2万亿美元。这一估值令人惊讶，因为路透社报道称，Anthropic在2025年的净营业收入仅为80亿美元。如今，人工智能正面临三个突如其来的威胁：安全问题、对建设巨型人工智能数据中心的抵制，以及它可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫，就像世纪之交的互联网泡沫一样，拖垮整个经济。
Anthropic, which was founded only five years ago, has been expecting to raise $100 billion in an initial public offering, valuing the company at an eye-popping $2 trillion, according to The New York Times. That’s an extraordinary valuation, since Reuters reports that Anthropic had only $8 billion in net operating income in 2025. Now AI faces a triad of sudden threats: safety concerns, resistance to construction of huge AI data centers, and a risk that it is somehow a bubble that can burst like the dot-com bubble at the turn of the century, dragging down the whole economy.
尽管人工智能面临这些新威胁，我们庞大的国家债务仍在持续增长。根据《每月财政报告》，美国财政部债务（总债务）在8月已达到40万亿美元。扣除政府账户中的国债后，净债务约为32万亿美元——这几乎等于当前的国内生产总值。国家债务上次达到国内生产总值的这一水平是在二战结束时。要摆脱债务困境，国内生产总值的增长必须超过债务的增长。
While AI faces these new threats, our ginormous national debt continues to grow. We hit $40 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt (gross debt) in August, according to the Monthly Treasury Statement. Net of Treasuries in government accounts that is at about $32 trillion — pretty close to current GDP. National debt last hit that level of GDP at the end of World War Two. To dig out of our debt hole, GDP growth has to exceed growth in the debt.
由于目前经济规模和净债务规模相同，这一分析非常直接。简而言之，债务的增长等于赤字的规模，而赤字只能通过新借贷来弥补。2025财政年度的赤字为1.8万亿美元，而2024年末的初始债务为28.3万亿美元，由此得出债务增长率为6.3%。国会预算办公室估计的名义（可比）国内生产总值增长仅为4.8%。过去这一财政年度，债务增长了6.7%，这是由2.0万亿美元的赤字和30.3万亿美元的期初债务共同驱动的。
Since the economy and net debt are now the same amount, the analysis is straightforward. In broad terms, the debt grows by the amount of the deficit, which can only be closed by new borrowing. The deficit in fiscal 2025 was $1.8 trillion and beginning debt was $28.3 trillion at the end of 2024, yielding 6.3 percent growth in the debt. Estimated nominal (comparable) GDP growth was only 4.8 percent, according to the Congressional Budget Office. This past fiscal year, debt grew 6.7 percent, driven by a deficit of $2.0 trillion and beginning debt of $30.3 trillion.
国会预算办公室对名义国内生产总值的估计显示增长率为4.9%。债务一直以高于国内生产总值的速度增长。然而，就在刚刚结束的第三季度，实际国内生产总值增长达到前述的3.6%，当这与3%或更高的通货膨胀率相结合时，名义国内生产总值增长将达到6.6%或更高。这表明，国内生产总值有可能超过债务的增长。
The Congressional Budget Office estimate of nominal GDP shows 4.9 percent growth. Debt has been growing faster than GDP. Yet, in the just-ended third quarter, real GDP growth was the aforementioned 3.6 percent, which when combined with general inflation of 3 percent or more produces a fast pace of nominal GDP growth of 6.6 percent or more. This would suggest that GDP can outgrow the debt.
然而，明年将面临更大的挑战，因为9月份利率激增，这将显著增加利息成本并扩大赤字。事实上，净利息支出一直在快速增长，仅四年就从4250亿美元翻倍至刚刚结束的财政年度的1.1万亿美元，原因是大萧条之后和新冠疫情期间发行的低利率国债正在到期，并被新发行的高利率国债所取代。根据财政部月度报告，去年每七美元联邦支出中就有一美元用于支付利息。
Next year, however, will be much more challenging, since September brought a surge in interest rates, which will increase interest costs and widen the deficit significantly. Already, net interest has been very growing rapidly, more than doubling from $425 billion four years ago to $1.1 trillion in the fiscal year just ended, as low-rate Treasuries issued after the Great Recession and during the COVID era have been maturing and replaced by new higher-rate Treasuries. This past year, one out of every seven dollars of federal spending went to pay interest, according to the Monthly Treasury Statement.
当前第四季度将尤为艰难，因为此时美国政府（即“山姆大叔”）全年税收收入最少，因而需要借款最多。作为一个国家，我们面临着艰巨的平衡任务：我们必须对人工智能施加足够的控制，以确保它不会失控并造成混乱或更糟的后果，同时仍需培育人工智能爆炸式的经济潜力，以帮助避免否则几乎肯定会发生的财政金融危机。
The current fourth quarter will be especially challenging, since Uncle Sam receives the least amount of tax revenue — and, therefore, has to borrow the most — in this period each year. As a nation, we have a daunting balancing act to perform: we must exercise sufficient control over AI to ensure that it doesn’t go rogue and create chaos or worse, while still nurturing AI’s explosive economic potential to help avoid an otherwise almost certain fiscal-financial crisis.
无论我们是否愿意，我们都已经全身心地投入到这场巨大的人工智能赌注中。雷德·贾恩克是汤森德集团的总裁。
Like it or not, we are all-in on an enormous AI bet. Red Jahncke is president of the Townsend Group.