根据一项新的全球风险评估，人类可能因人工智能的恶意使用或核冲突而在2100年前灭绝。
Humans could become extinct by the year 2100 due to malicious use of AI or nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment.
这些威胁位列未来75年对人类健康构成的17项主要威胁之首，该名单还包括富裕国家削减援助支出、气候危机和儿童营养不良。
They top a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, which also includes cuts to aid spending by wealthy countries, the climate crisis and childhood malnutrition.
《柳叶刀》21世纪全球健康威胁委员会的专家表示，所有这些威胁相互交织，意味着必须共同应对——但他们强调，对每一种威胁都存在“可行的行动路径”。
The experts behind The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health said all the threats interact, meaning they must be addressed together – but stressed that there was “a realistic route to act” on each.
“领导者今天所作的决定将塑造下一代人的健康和福祉，”委员会共同主席、华盛顿大学健康指标与评估研究所所长克里斯托弗·默里教授表示。
“Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation,” said Prof Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington.
为制定该名单，委员会基于当前趋势建模了每种威胁可能导致的因疾病、残疾或过早死亡而损失的健康寿命年数——这一指标被称为伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。
To create its list, the commission modelled how many years in good health might be lost due to sickness, disability or early deaths due to each threat, based on current trajectories – a measure known as disability-adjusted life years (Dalys).
“恶意使用人工智能，包括生物武器，以及伴随核饥荒的核冲突，在未来75年内存在导致人类灭绝的风险，”报告称，并补充说，尽管这些风险发生的可能性仍然较低，但一旦发生核冲突，通过向高空注入足够多的颗粒以阻挡阳光并引发饥荒，或通过人工智能制造的生物武器，就有可能导致人类灭绝。随报告一同发表的《柳叶刀》社论警告：“若这些风险成为现实，其造成的危害规模将对人类构成末日灾难。”
“Malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years,” the report said, adding that while their likelihood remained low, they had the potential to end humanity in the case of nuclear conflict by injecting enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and cause famine, or via AI-created biological weapons. An accompanying Lancet editorial, published alongside the report, warned: “The scale of harm, should they be realised, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity.”
其他可能导致超过10亿累计DALYs损失、因而被视为“重大灾难性威胁”的风险还包括空气污染、抗菌素耐药性、儿童营养不良和气候崩溃，以及传统冲突、海外援助减少、高酒精摄入、高血压、收入不平等、教育程度低、自然发生的大流行病、肥胖、心理健康状况差、吸烟和不健康的老龄化。
Other risks that could cause more than 1bn cumulative Dalys, and therefore deemed “major catastrophic threats”, included air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition and climate breakdown, as well as conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.
要被列入该名单，威胁不仅必须可能造成大量健康寿命损失，还必须具备潜在的解决方案。
To be included on the list, threats not only had to potentially cause a high number of lost healthy years, but also to have potential solutions.
伊布拉欣·阿布巴卡尔（Ibrahim Abubakar）是委员会成员，伦敦大学学院传染病流行病学教授，他表示：“我们并不是从‘哦，看，我们想吓唬你们——我们面临着X项威胁’的角度出发。我们的出发点是：如果你今天是一名政策制定者，无论是在全球多边层面还是国家层面，这些都是你可能面临的潜在威胁，而通过行动，你实际上可以产生多大的影响。”
Ibrahim Abubakar, commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, said: “We are not starting from a point of view of ‘oh look, we want to scare you – we’ve got X many threats facing humanity’. We’re starting from the premise that if you are a policymaker today, whether at the global multilateral level or at the national level, these are the potential threats that you could face, and this is the magnitude by which, if you act, you can actually make a difference.”
报告指出，若将全球升温控制在约1.8°C（3.2°F）而非让其升至4.4°C，则可防止18.9亿年的健康生命损失，该报告通过对每项威胁的最佳和最坏情景进行建模得出此结论。
Action to limit global heating to about 1.8C (3.2F) rather than letting it reach 4.4C could prevent 1.89bn years of healthy life being lost, according to the report, which modelled best and worst case scenarios for each threat.
在高收入地区，肥胖和心理健康不佳等非传染性疾病是主要威胁，而在低收入地区，健康损失则主要由教育程度低等问题驱动。
In higher income regions, non-communicable diseases such as obesity and poor mental health were the dominant threats, while in lower income regions health loss was driven by issues such as low educational attainment.
过去一年，包括美国和英国在内的许多主要捐助国宣布大幅削减援助支出。委员会发现，国际卫生援助的潜在崩溃或大幅削减可能导致到2100年出现多达15亿DALYs的损失，其中近70%将发生在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。该地区也承受着儿童营养不良的主要负担。
Many major donor nations, including the US and UK, have announced large cuts to aid spending over the past year. The potential collapse of, or steep reduction in, international health aid could cause up to 1.5bn Dalys before 2100, the commission found, nearly 70% of which would be in sub-Saharan Africa. The region also bears the brunt of child malnutrition.
该委员会由35名专家组成，其调查结果将于周日在德国柏林的世界卫生峰会上公布。他们的评估将每年更新一次，以重新评估所确定的17项威胁，并纳入新数据和任何新出现的风险。
The commission was made up of 35 experts, and its findings will be shared on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany. Their assessment will be updated annually to re-evaluate the 17 threats identified, incorporating new data and any emerging hazards.
作者们呼吁领导人在风险升级为危机之前加以应对，包括通过投资技术创新和加强卫生系统。
The authors urged leaders to address the risks before they escalated into crises, including via investment in technological innovations and by strengthening health systems.
“我们三年前启动这一进程时，认为只有三个主要威胁：冲突、气候和大流行病，”默里说。“实际上需要我们担心的威胁数量要多得多，政府真的需要投入一些资金和人力，以应对这一更为多样化的威胁集合，进行预测、预防和准备。”
“We started this process three years ago, thinking that there were three big threats: conflict, climate, and pandemics,” said Murray. “There’s a much larger number of threats that we need to worry about, and governments really need to dedicate some money and staff to the task of anticipation, prevention and preparation for this more diverse set of threats.”