恶意使用人工智能和核冲突构成人类在2100年前灭绝的最大威胁，全球专家已发出警告。
Malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict pose the biggest threat to human extinction by the year 2100, global experts have warned.
《柳叶刀》发表的一份新报告指出，17个相互关联的“灾难性威胁”涵盖疾病、社会和经济状况、环境变化、技术和冲突。
A new report, published in The Lancet, identifies 17 interlinked "catastrophic threats" spanning disease, social and economic conditions, environmental change, technology and conflict.
除了这两种可能导致人类灭绝的威胁之外，报告还确认了另外15种对人类健康构成灾难性危害的因素，包括空气污染、气候变化、高酒精摄入、自然发生的大流行病、肥胖、吸烟以及心理健康状况不佳。研究人员警告世界领导人，对人类生存和健康构成最大威胁的问题需要协调一致、有针对性的行动，并且必须共同应对。
In addition to the two extinction-potential threats - 15 catastrophic dangers to human health are also identified, including air pollution, climate change high alcohol use, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, smoking and poor mental health Researchers warned world leaders the greatest threats to human survival and health required co-ordinated, targeted action - and must be addressed together.
他们表示，卫生、金融、气候、国防和安全领域的决策将决定后代能够获得多少年健康生活——或因可预防的疾病和早逝而失去多少年健康生活，并补充称存在“一个可行的行动路径”。
Decisions across health, finance, climate, defence and security sectors will determine how many years of good health future generations gain - or lose - to preventable illness and early death, they said, adding there was "a realistic route to act".
该报告的联合主席、华盛顿大学健康指标与评估研究所（IHME）所长克里斯托弗·J·L·默里教授表示：“这一显著发现不仅在于这些威胁的规模，还在于人类仍然具备采取行动的能力。”
Commission co-chair Professor Christopher JL Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said: "The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act.
“在这17项灾难性威胁中，领导人今天所做的决定将塑造下一代的健康和福祉。但推迟行动只会把成本转移并增加到未来。”该风险评估由默里博士和前联合国人口基金执行主任纳塔莉亚·卡内姆博士共同主持，汇集了来自健康、经济、安全、治理和技术领域的35位领导人的专业知识。
"Across all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. But delaying action will only serve to shift and increase the costs into the future." Co-chaired by Dr Murray and Dr Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund, the risk assessment was compiled drawing on the expertise of 35 leaders spanning health, economics, security, governance and technology.
《柳叶刀》21世纪全球健康威胁委员会的作者们通过分析数百种潜在危险，结合历史证据和来自IHME覆盖204个国家和地区的新风险分析，得出了最坏情况的清单。
Authors of The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health examined hundreds of possible dangers, drawing on historical evidence and new risk analysis covering 204 countries and territories from the IHME to draw the list of worst-case scenarios.
这些是由研究人员通过建模得出的，他们模拟了由于每种威胁导致的疾病、残疾或早逝可能造成的健康寿命损失年数——这一指标被称为伤残调整生命年（Dalys）。如果一种威胁可能导致至少十亿个Dalys，则将其识别为灾难性威胁。
These were identified by researchers modelling how many years in good health might be lost due to sickness, disability or early deaths due to each threat - a measure known as disability-adjusted life years (Dalys). A threat was identified as catastrophic if it could account for at least one billion Dalys.
对人类健康的其他灾难性威胁还包括抗菌素耐药性、儿童营养不良、传统冲突、海外援助减少、高血压、收入不平等、教育程度低和不健康的老龄化。更多来自天空新闻：沙特机场袭击事件造成多人死伤 特朗普的人工智能数据中心繁荣引发愤怒 我们对致命虎袭事件的了解 研究人员呼吁世界领导人通过改善卫生系统和增加对技术创新的投资来应对这些威胁。
Other catastrophic dangers to human health included antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment and unhealthy ageing. More from Sky News: Several dead after attack at Saudi airport Trump's AI data centre boom fuels anger What we know about fatal tiger attack Researchers urged world leaders to tackle the threats by improving health systems and increasing investment in technological innovations.
卡内姆博士说：“最近的全球事件向我们展示了稳定如何迅速转变为危机，以及仅在灾难发生后才做出反应的高昂成本。”
Dr Kanem said: "Recent global events show us just how quickly stability can give way to crisis, and how costly it is to respond only after disaster strikes.
“而且，全球对健康的威胁可能会放大现有的不平等，而最大的负担将落在最脆弱的社区身上。”
"And the global threats to health risk amplifying existing inequalities, with the greatest burden falling on the most vulnerable communities.
“然而，未来并非不可避免。该委员会提出了一个有力的论点，即通过将前瞻性嵌入决策过程中来重塑未来。”
"Yet the future is not inevitable. The commission makes a compelling case for reshaping the future by embedding foresight into decision-making.
“政府和社区必须从今天开始果断行动，以保护健康，为后代建设一个更公平、更和平、更安全的未来。”
"Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations."
这些发现将在德国柏林的三天世界卫生峰会上公布，峰会将从周日开始。
The findings will be shared at the three-day World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany, from Sunday.