美国股市呈现出两种截然不同的景象。标普500指数接近历史高点，但更广泛的美国股市中超过一半的公司遭遇了大幅亏损。这意味着，尽管许多个别股票表现疲弱，该指数仍显得强劲。超过一半的美国股票下跌幅度达到至少20%。摩根士丹利的数据显示，罗素3000指数中有54%的公司较2026年6月的高点下跌了至少20%。
The US stock market is showing two very different pictures. The S&P 500 is close to a record high, but more than half of the companies in the broader US stock market have suffered sharp losses. This means the index looks strong even as many individual stocks struggle. More than half of US stocks have fallen at least 20%. Data from Morgan Stanley show that 54% of companies in the Russell 3000 index have dropped at least 20% from their June 2026 highs.
罗素3000指数追踪了一大批美国公司。美国股票较6月高点下跌20%许多公司遭受了更大的损失。根据福布斯引用的摩根士丹利数据，近90%的罗素3000指数公司较其6月高点下跌了超过10%。大约29%的公司损失超过其价值的30%，而7%的公司下跌幅度超过50%。为什么标普500指数接近历史高点？标普500指数并未反映每只股票的表现。
The Russell 3000 tracks a broad range of US companies.US stocks fall 20% from June highsMany companies have suffered even bigger losses. Almost 90% of Russell 3000 companies have fallen more than 10% from their June highs. Around 29% have lost more than 30% of their value, while 7% have fallen by more than 50%, according to Morgan Stanley's figures cited by Forbes. Why is the S&P 500 near a record high? The S&P 500 does not show how every stock is performing.
该指数追踪500家领先的美国公司，并根据市值大小赋予更高权重。因此，即使有数百只其他股票下跌，少数几家市值巨大的公司也能推动指数上涨。为什么随着利率上升威胁到华尔街的利润繁荣，美国银行股票的市值损失达到了2700亿美元？支撑反弹的美国股票变少了标普500指数中交易价格高于其长期趋势的公司数量在减少。
The index tracks 500 leading US companies and gives more weight to companies with larger market values. As a result, a small group of very large companies can push the index higher even when hundreds of other stocks are falling. Why have US bank stocks lost $270 billion in market value as rising interest rates threaten Wall Street’s profit boom? Fewer US stocks are supporting the rallyFewer S&P 500 companies are trading above their long-term trend.
摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊表示，标普500指数中交易价格高于其200日移动平均线的公司比例已从约75%降至低于50%。200日移动平均线追踪股票在大约200个交易日内的平均价格，帮助投资者评估其长期走势。尽管交易价格高于长期平均水平的公司变少了，但标普500指数仍未完全反映其下方的疲弱。由于其最大成分股继续表现强劲，该指数仍然接近历史高点。
Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley said the share of S&P 500 companies trading above their 200-day moving averages has fallen from around 75% to below 50%. A 200-day moving average tracks a stock's average price over roughly 200 trading days and helps investors assess its longer-term direction. The index has not fully reflected the weakness underneath it. Although fewer companies are trading above their long-term averages, the S&P 500 has remained close to a record because its largest members have continued to perform strongly.
这表明市场的涨幅正在越来越集中于少数几家公司。这种市场范围的缩小可能是一个警示信号。仅由少数几只大盘股支撑的市场反弹可能会持续数月而不会立即出现崩盘。然而，这种差距最终可能以两种方式之一缩小：表现不佳的股票可能会复苏，或者支撑指数的大型公司可能开始下跌。更高的利率给股票带来压力。
This shows that the market's gains are becoming concentrated in a smaller group of companies. This narrowing market could be a warning sign. A market rally supported by only a few large stocks can continue for months without an immediate crash. However, the gap could eventually close in one of two ways: struggling stocks could recover, or the large companies supporting the index could begin fallingHigher interest rates put pressure on stocksRising bond market volatility could put more pressure on stocks.
债券市场波动加剧可能会对股票造成更大压力。威尔逊认为，债券市场持续波动可能导致标普500指数下跌5%至10%。然而，这只是他的看法，并不是对指数将下跌该幅度的确认预测。投资者也在质疑人工智能支出的回报。一些公司在人工智能上投入了巨额资金。投资者越来越质疑这些投资是否能产生足够的利润来证明其成本的合理性。
Wilson believes continued volatility in the bond market could lead to a 5% to 10% decline in the S&P 500. However, this is his outlook, not a confirmed prediction that the index will fall by that amount. Investors are also questioning the returns from AI spending. Some companies have invested enormous amounts of money in artificial intelligence. Investors are increasingly questioning whether these investments will generate enough profit to justify their costs.
那些估值依赖于高增长预期的公司，如果这些预期未能实现，可能会面临压力。尽管股价下跌，一些公司仍然保持强劲的盈利。摩根士丹利表示，中位数公司的盈利增长仍处于十几岁中段。分析师上调的盈利预期也多于下调的。这导致了公司报告的业务前景与其股价大幅下跌之间出现差距，正如《福布斯》所指出的。
Companies whose valuations depend on high growth expectations could face pressure if those expectations are not met. Some companies still have strong earnings despite falling share prices. Morgan Stanley said earnings growth for the median company remains in the mid-teens. Analysts are also raising more earnings estimates than they are cutting. This creates a gap between companies' reported business outlooks and the sharp declines in their share prices, according to Forbes.
为什么投资者在抛售美国股票？股票下跌也可能因被迫卖出的投资者而面临压力。投资亏损的投资组合经理可能面临客户的压力。一些投资者可能会从基金中提取资金，迫使经理卖出股票以满足这些提款需求。
Why are investors selling US stocks? Falling stocks can also face pressure from investors who are forced to sell. Portfolio managers whose investments are losing money may face pressure from clients. Some investors may withdraw money from funds, forcing managers to sell shares to meet those withdrawals.
风险管理系统也可能要求基金在市场波动加剧时减少敞口。为什么比特币ETF在2天内亏损7.31亿美元，随后却出现2100万美元的净流入？资金可能流向已经支撑指数的大型公司。投资者可能将资金转入指数基金，这些基金根据特定指数的成分股及其权重进行投资。这可能导致更多资金流向最大的公司，而表现疲弱的股票则获得较少支持。
Risk-management systems may also require funds to reduce their exposure when market volatility rises. Why did Bitcoin ETFs lose $731 million in 2 days before $21 million inflow? Money can flow towards the same large companies that are already supporting the index. Investors may move money into index funds, which invest according to the companies and weights in a particular index. This can direct more investment towards the largest companies while struggling stocks receive less support.
这种资金流动可能扩大标普500指数与更广泛市场之间的差距。什么可能有助于下跌股票复苏？摩根士丹利认为工业股可能存在机遇。该行认为，一些质量较好的工业公司尽管盈利预期仍然相对稳健，但股价已出现回调，具有吸引人的风险回报比。根据福布斯报道，这些公司可能受到利率上升、经济增长担忧以及投资者偏好大型科技公司的影响。
Such flows can widen the gap between the S&P 500 and the broader market. What could help falling stocks recover? Morgan Stanley sees possible opportunities in industrial stocks. The bank sees attractive risk and reward in some quality industrial companies whose share prices have weakened even though their earnings expectations remain reasonably strong. These businesses may have been hurt by higher interest rates, concerns about economic growth and investors favouring large technology companies, according to Forbes.
最大股票的表现仍然是一个主要风险。少数大型公司正在支撑标普500指数维持接近历史高点。如果这些公司未能达到投资者预期，其股价可能下跌，从而对整个指数造成压力。市场领导力越集中，指数对这些公司的依赖就越大。美国股市接下来会怎样？后续走势部分取决于债券市场和公司盈利情况。如果债券市场波动趋于缓和，且公司继续报告良好业绩，投资者可能开始买入曾经大幅下跌的股票。
The performance of the biggest stocks remains a major risk. A small number of large companies are helping the S&P 500 stay close to its record. If these companies fail to meet investors' expectations, their share prices could fall and put pressure on the entire index. The narrower the market's leadership becomes, the more the index depends on those companies. What happens next for the US stock market? The next move will depend partly on bond markets and company earnings. If bond market ups and downs become less severe and companies continue to report good earnings, investors may start buying stocks that have fallen sharply.
这可能有助于更多股票上涨，而标普500指数不会出现大幅下跌。然而，如果利率继续上升或公司预期盈利下降，即使支撑标普500的大型公司也可能看到股价下跌。主要担忧是标普500指数与更广泛的美国股市之间的差距正在扩大。
This could help more stocks rise without the S&P 500 falling sharply. However, if interest rates keep rising or companies expect lower earnings, even the big companies supporting the S&P 500 could see their share prices fall. The main concern is the growing gap between the S&P 500 and the wider US stock market.
标普500指数接近历史高点，但这并不意味着大多数美国股票表现良好。摩根士丹利的数据显示，罗素3000指数中有54%的公司股价较6月高点下跌了至少20%。现在的关键问题是，这些股票是否会反弹，或者跌势是否会蔓延到那些支撑标普500指数接近历史高点的大型公司。
The S&P 500 is close to a record high, but this does not mean most US stocks are doing well. Morgan Stanley's data shows that 54% of companies in the Russell 3000 index have fallen at least 20% from their June highs. The big question now is whether these stocks will recover or whether the fall will spread to the large companies keeping the S&P 500 near its record high.