美元接近18个月高点，因中东冲突和通胀数据成为焦点 作者：Ankur Banerjee 和 Li Gu 新加坡/上海，10月12日 - 随着中东冲突升级，投资者在本周晚些时候关键的美国通胀数据公布前保持警惕，美元在早盘亚洲交易中保持在一年半以来的最高水平附近。
Dollar stays near 18-month high as Mideast conflict, inflation data in focus By Ankur Banerjee and Li Gu SINGAPORE/SHANGHAI, Oct 12 - The dollar held ground near its strongest level in a year and a half in early Asian trade on Monday as an escalating Middle East conflict kept investors wary ahead of key US inflation data later this week that will influence monetary policy.
也门伊朗支持的胡塞武装加强了对沙特阿拉伯的袭击，周末两艘油轮遭到袭击，导致油价在涨跌之间波动。
Oil prices swung between gains and losses after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia while two tankers were attacked over the weekend.
价格还受到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周日宣布乌克兰和俄罗斯之间能源停火的影响。亚洲时段，布伦特原油期货下跌1%，至每桶103.55美元。[O/R] 美元指数（衡量美元对六种货币篮子的强度）小幅下跌至102.14，但仍未远离上周创下的18个月高点。由于日本市场因假日休市，区域流动性减少，交易被限制在一个狭窄的范围内。
Prices were also influenced by Sunday's announcement from US President Donald Trump about an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Brent crude futures were down 1% at $103.55 per barrel in Asian hours. [O/R] The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was slightly down at 102.14 but remained not far from the 18-month peak it scaled last week. Trading was confined to a tight range with Japanese markets shut for a holiday, thinning liquidity across the region.
澳大利亚联邦银行的分析师在一份报告中表示：“我们预计胡塞武装将继续对沙特阿拉伯的能源资产发动袭击，这将支撑油价和美元的上涨。”
"We expect the Houthis to continue their attacks on Saudi Arabian energy assets, supporting gains in the oil price and the USD," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.
他们补充说，虽然伊朗已通过中间人确认收到了美国的和平提议，但“我们不认为本周会有突破。”对日元而言，美元下跌0.14%，至158.160日元。澳元和新西兰元分别基本持平，报0.6988美元和0.5614美元。
They added that while Iran had confirmed receiving a US peace proposal through intermediaries, "we do not expect a breakthrough this week." Against the yen, the US dollar was down 0.14% at 158.160 yen. The Australian dollar and its kiwi counterpart were both roughly flat at $0.6988 and $0.5614, respectively.
焦点转向美国通胀数据 除了地缘政治背景外，市场的焦点转向周三的美国消费者价格指数报告，这是美联储10月下旬利率会议前最后一份主要经济数据。
SPOTLIGHT MOVES TO US INFLATION DATA Beyond the geopolitical backdrop, the market's focus turns to Wednesday's US consumer price index report, one of the last major economic releases before the Federal Reserve's late-October meeting on interest rates.
上周的数据显示，由于中东冲突导致生活成本上升，美国消费者情绪在早期10月进一步下滑，家庭对经济的看法受到影响。
Data last week showed US consumer sentiment slumped further in early October as the rising cost of living because of the Middle East conflict soured households' views of the economy.
美联储上个月自2023年以来首次加息，以遏制通胀，市场密切关注经济数据，以判断政策制定者是否可能再次行动。CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员预计美联储本月维持利率不变的概率为81%，较上月的51%有所上升。
The Fed raised rates last month for the first time since 2023 to rein in inflation, with markets keeping a close watch on economic data to gauge whether policymakers may move again. Traders are pricing in an 81% chance of the Fed standing pat this month, up from 51% a month earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed.
巴克莱分析师表示，即使如此，美元的反弹也可能在近期出现暂停，出现一定程度的回调。
Even otherwise, the dollar's rally may be due for a pause in the near term with some pullback possible, Barclays analysts said.
他们指出，债券市场的剧烈波动导致全球金融状况收紧，这可能促使美联储官员在10月会议前采取更为安抚的基调，尤其是如果CPI数据表现疲软的话。
They said sharp moves in bond markets had tightened global financial conditions, which could prompt Fed officials to strike a more reassuring tone heading into the October meeting, particularly if the CPI reading comes in soft.
过去几周债券市场的严重抛售让投资者担忧，因为全球借贷成本因通胀、能源价格和政府债务激增而升至数十年来的高点。
Severe selloffs in bond markets in the past few weeks had left investors worried as borrowing costs across the globe rose to multi-decade highs on worries over inflation, energy prices and ballooning government debt.
欧元兑美元上涨近0.1%，报1.121美元，此前已连续第五周下跌，因为在2027年法国总统大选前的政治不确定性中，法国财政状况成为投资者焦点的核心。
The euro was up nearly 0.1% at $1.121, after clocking a fifth straight week of losses as the common currency bore the brunt of investor angst around France's fiscal health amid political uncertainty before the 2027 presidential election.
“目前还为时过早，无法判断更高的借贷成本是否足以对法国政府施加更大的财政纪律压力，”OCBC外汇策略师表示。
"It is still too early to tell whether higher borrowing costs will be sufficient to impose greater fiscal discipline on the French government," said OCBC FX strategists.
“我们预计欧元/美元将进入整理阶段，因为法国财政和政治新闻的强度不太可能持续，”他们在一份报告中表示，并补充说，任何欧元的反弹都可能因欧洲的结构性挑战而受到限制。
"We expect EURUSD to consolidate as the intensity of French fiscal and political headlines is unlikely to be sustained," they said in a note, adding any rally in the euro is likely to be capped by Europe’s structural challenges.
英镑兑美元基本持稳，报1.3245美元。在离岸市场，美元兑人民币报6.6927元人民币。
The British pound was little changed at $1.3245. Against the Chinese yuan, the US dollar was flat at 6.6927 yuan in offshore trade.
在加密货币领域，比特币上涨0.2%，报83,788.50美元；以太币微涨0.15%，报2,540.08美元。
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 0.2% to $83,788.50, while ether edged 0.15% up to $2,540.08.