10月13日：由于油价回落，且投资者将注意力转向美联储的利率路径并押注中东局势在美国中期选举前将保持克制，美元周二从18个月高点回落。
Oct 13 : The dollar slipped from 18-month highs on Tuesday in line with a retreat in oil prices as investors shifted focus to the Federal Reserve's rate path, betting Middle East tensions would remain contained ahead of US midterm elections.
市场普遍认为，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将力求避免中东和乌克兰战事的任何升级，因为这可能会损害他在中期选举前的政治前景。
The prevailing market view is that US President Donald Trump will seek to avoid any escalation in the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, which could dent his prospects ahead of the midterm elections.
特朗普上周表示，美国不会在中东选举前袭击伊朗，并于周日提及了俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的能源停火。
Trump said last week the US will not attack Iran before the elections, and mentioned an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday.
油价周二下跌，有望迎来近一周以来的首次下跌，交易员们正在权衡来自俄罗斯的额外柴油供应前景。
Oil prices fell on Tuesday and were on track for their first decline in nearly a week as traders weighed the prospect of additional diesel supplies from Russia.
周三公布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据将为美联储可能采取的紧缩政策提供进一步线索。
Wednesday's September consumer price index reading should provide further clues about possible Fed tightening.
芝商所的美联储观察工具显示，交易员目前预计美联储本月维持利率不变的概率为80%，高于一个月前的51%，但也预计到2027年底前将收紧75个基点。
Traders are pricing in an 80 per cent chance of the Fed standing pat this month, up from 51 per cent a month earlier, but also 75 basis points of tightening by late 2027, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
汇丰银行高级外汇策略师达拉·马赫表示：“虽然市场会对鹰派的意外举动做出反应，但单次CPI数据发布可能不足以扭转高级官员似乎热衷于确立的暂停加息叙事。”
“While markets would react to a hawkish surprise, one CPI release may not be enough to undo a pause narrative that senior officials have seemed keen to establish,” Daragh Maher, senior forex strategist at HSBC, said.
他补充道：“美联储一再强调，政策是由全部证据而非单一数据点驱动的，”他认为，通胀数据出现温和的上行意外可能会增强对12月已定价加息的信心，而不会对10月份的政策或美元产生实质性改变。
“The Fed has repeatedly emphasised that policy is driven by the totality of the evidence rather than a single data point,” he added, arguing that a modest upside surprise in inflation data may strengthen confidence in December's already-priced hike without changing October or the dollar materially.
此前，两位政策制定者主张在决定是否需要进一步收紧政策之前收集更多证据，投资者随后放弃了对美联储在本月晚些时候加息的押注。
Investors abandoned bets on a Fed rate hike later this month after two policymakers argued for gathering more evidence before deciding whether further tightening is needed.
衡量美元对六种主要货币强弱的美元指数下跌0.25%，至102.29，此前该指数在周一曾触及102.61，为2025年4月以来的最高水平。油价上涨常常以能源进口货币（如欧元和日元）为代价支撑美元。
The US dollar index, a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, slid 0.25 per cent to 102.29 after reaching 102.61 on Monday, its highest since April 2025. Rising oil prices often support the dollar at the expense of energy-importing currencies such as the euro and yen.
尽管天然气价格创下新高，欧元仍出现反弹 欧元周二从约17个月低点反弹，尽管天然气价格再次跳涨——天然气价格是欧元区通胀的关键驱动因素，而人们对法国财政前景的担忧仍在持续。
EURO REBOUNDS DESPITE GAS PRICES HITTING FRESH HIGHS The euro rebounded from a roughly 17‑month low on Tuesday despite another jump in gas prices, a key driver of euro zone inflation, while concerns over France's fiscal outlook persisted.
单一货币在周一触及1.11525美元后上涨0.34%，达到1.1193美元，这是其自2025年5月以来的最低水平。
The single currency was up 0.34 per cent at $1.1193 after hitting $1.11525 on Monday, its lowest since May 2025.
“欧元区传来好消息的前景渺茫，任何进一步的坏消息都可能促使欧洲央行放缓加息步伐，甚至完全终止加息，”麦格理集团全球外汇和利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示，他指的是法国的财政轨迹以及能源冲击的影响。
"The prospect for good news coming in the euro area is slim, and any further bad news would prompt the ECB to slow the pace of rate hikes, or end them altogether," Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said, referring to France’s fiscal trajectory and the impact of the energy shock.
他补充道，欧洲央行放缓加息步伐“很可能导致欧元/美元进一步下跌”。
The ECB slowing the pace of rate hikes "would likely cause further euro/dollar downside", he added.
天然气价格达到86.30欧元，为自2022年12月以来的最高水平。
Natural gas prices reached €86.30, their highest level since December 2022.
在日本银行数据显示批发价格在截至9月的一年内上涨6.8%，低于市场中位预期的7.6%，但仍足以证明市场对更高利率的担忧是合理的情况下，日元对美元汇率上涨0.28%，达到158.16日元。
The yen strengthened 0.28 per cent to 158.16 yen against the dollar after Bank of Japan data showed wholesale prices rose 6.8 per cent in the year to September, missing a median market forecast of 7.6 per cent but still enough to justify market fears of higher interest rates.
人民币离岸汇率在6.6943元附近持稳，接近四年来的最强水平。
The Chinese yuan traded near its strongest in four years, holding steady against the dollar at 6.6943 yuan in offshore trade.
澳元报0.6968美元，澳大利亚储备银行9月董事会会议纪要显示其 unanimously 决定今年第四次加息后，澳元基本持平。
The Australian dollar was at $0.6968, little changed after the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's September board meeting that voted unanimously to raise rates for the fourth time this year.
该央行表示，它仍然认为通胀可能比预期更顽固，有必要的话将为今年第五次加息留下空间。
The central bank said it still sees risks that inflation could prove more stubborn than assumed, leaving the door open for a fifth hike this year if needed.