惠誉评级周一警告称，法国在削减预算赤字方面进展不足可能导致负面评级展望，而政府债务进一步大幅增加可能触发降级。
Fitch Ratings warned Monday that insufficient progress in reducing France’s budget deficit could lead to a negative rating outlook, while a further substantial increase in government debt could trigger a downgrade.
该机构目前将法国评级定为A+，展望稳定，称2027年预算草案凸显了在经济增长疲弱、利息成本上升以及政治分裂持续的情况下稳定公共债务的难度日益加大。
The agency, which rates France A+ with a stable outlook, said the proposed 2027 budget highlights mounting difficulties in stabilizing public debt amid weak economic growth, higher interest costs and persistent political fragmentation.
政府目前预计2026年赤字将占国内生产总值（GDP）的5.4%，超过其之前的5%目标以及惠誉8月份预测的5.2%。
The government now expects a deficit of 5.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, exceeding its previous 5% target and Fitch’s August forecast of 5.2%.
惠誉表示，这一恶化反映了税收收入因经济活动和劳动力市场状况疲软而减少，同时利息支出增加。
The deterioration reflects weaker tax revenues linked to softer economic activity and labor market conditions, alongside higher interest payments, Fitch said.
2027年预算草案将赤字目标定为GDP的5%，并计划实施430亿欧元（480亿美元）的新增节约措施，相当于GDP的1.4%。
The proposed 2027 budget targets a deficit of 5% of GDP, with €43 billion ($48 billion) in new savings, equivalent to 1.4% of GDP.
这些措施包括冻结公共部门工资、限制月收入超过1260欧元的养老金的通胀调整，以及在缩小范围的同时延长对大型企业的特别税收。
Measures include freezing public-sector wages, limiting inflation adjustments for pensions above €1,260 a month and extending a special tax on large companies while narrowing its scope.
如果没有额外的政策措施，政府估计明年的赤字将达到GDP的6.4%。
Without additional policy measures, the government estimates next year’s deficit would reach 6.4% of GDP.
惠誉表示，自其8月份评审以来，法国的借贷成本急剧上升，10年期国债收益率在10月份接近5%，而2025年的平均水平为3.4%。
Fitch said France’s borrowing costs have risen sharply since its August review, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 5% in October, compared with an average of 3.4% in 2025.
法国国债收益率与德国国债收益率的差距扩大至约140个基点，表明投资者信心受到冲击的脆弱性增加。
The yield gap with German government bonds widened to about 140 basis points, indicating increased vulnerability to shocks in investor confidence.
惠誉目前估计，稳定法国的债务比率需要相当于GDP约3.5%的累计财政调整，而8月份的估计为3%。
Fitch now estimates that stabilizing France’s debt ratio would require cumulative fiscal adjustment equivalent to around 3.5% of GDP, up from the 3% estimated in August.
尽管如此，该机构仍预计该预算的通过将比近年来更为顺利，理由是为避免在2027年4月总统选举前出现长期不确定性，存在政治激励。
The agency nevertheless expects passage of the budget to be smoother than in recent years, citing political incentives to avoid prolonged uncertainty ahead of the April 2027 presidential election.
然而，Fitch 表示，仅有批准并不能解决所需调整的规模，并警告说，公众对持续财政紧缩的容忍度可能有限。
However, approval alone would not resolve the scale of the adjustment needed, Fitch said, warning that public tolerance for sustained fiscal restraint may be limited.