娅·科恩据惠誉评级的一位资深分析师称，法国提出的预算方案是控制财政赤字的一项重要举措；若该方案未能获得通过，则可能引发一系列负面后果。
France’s budget proposal is a meaningful attempt to tame the deficit that risks adverse consequences if it doesn’t pass, according to a senior Fitch Ratings analyst.
本周接受采访时，惠誉西欧主权评级部门负责人费德里科·巴里加-萨拉萨尔称，财政部长罗兰·莱斯库尔致力于将明年财政赤字率降至GDP的5%，这一努力“意义重大”。
In an interview this week, Federico Barriga-Salazar described Finance Minister Roland Lescure’s push to pare the shortfall to 5% of output next year as “substantial.”
“虽然财政领域仍面临诸多挑战，但该预算方案的重要性不容小觑；若未能通过，很可能会引发连锁反应，”巴里加-萨拉萨尔说道。“这一方案分量很重、意义非凡。唯一的不确定性在于它能否按原样获得批准。”本月早些时候，莱斯库尔公布的预算方案计划采取总计430亿欧元（约合482亿美元）的举措来削减赤字，从而缓解金融市场对法国公共财政状况的担忧。
“The whole challenges of the fiscal story are still there, but it’s significant enough that it would create a bit of a short circuit if it didn’t happen,” said Barriga-Salazar, who is Fitch’s head of western Europe sovereigns. “It is big, it is important. The question mark is whether it gets approved in its current state.”Lescure’s budget unveiled earlier this month envisages €43 billion ($48.2 billion) in measures to bring down the deficit and appease financial-market worries about the country’s public finances.
近期，投资者要求持有法国10年期国债所获得的额外收益率与德国国债的利差已升至2011年以来的最高水平。尽管如此，巴里加-萨拉萨尔对当前局势仍持乐观态度。
The extra yield demanded by investors to hold French 10-year bonds compared with those of Germany recently hit its highest since 2011. Despite that comparison, Barriga-Salazar offered a sanguine view about the current juncture.
“目前的问题属于财政范畴，而非融资问题，”他周三说道。这位惠誉分析师预测，倘若预算案陷入长期僵局，法国政府最终可能会打破惯例，通过颁布法令来强行推行该方案。
“Where we are today, it’s a fiscal problem,” he said Wednesday. “It’s not a financing problem.”The Fitch analyst predicted that in the event of an extended impasse over the budget, the government is ultimately ready to break precedent and bypass parliament to push it through by ordinance.
“我认为政府已为此做好了准备，”他说道。“没有预算，政府便难以正常运转，因此我认为这种结果极有可能发生。”就在几天前，极右翼总统候选人玛丽娜·勒庞公布了自己的施政计划：若当选，她将大幅削减财政赤字，力争在2027年将赤字率降至GDP的3.7%，并在五年后进一步降至2.2%。
“I think they’ve prepared the ground for this,” he said. “They cannot function very well without a budget, so I think this looks like a very likely outcome.”He spoke days after far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen unveiled plans to cut the deficit sharply if she wins office, proposing a shortfall as low as 3.7% of gross domestic product in 2027, reaching 2.2% five years later.
巴里加-萨拉萨尔指出，勒庞提出的目标与法国对欧盟作出的正式承诺相符，但他也强调，这些提议并未说明具体实施路径。
Barriga-Salazar observed that such an outline simply matches France’s formal commitments to the the European Union, while saying that the proposals don’t explain how much about actual delivery.
“目前还缺乏足够的细节来证明这一目标能在未来两到三年内实现，”他说道，“还有许多问题需要进一步解决。”去年，惠誉将法国的信用评级下调至A+，此后Scope和标普也相继给出了相同的评级。穆迪对该国的评级虽仍高于其他机构，但预计将于本月晚些时候发布更新结果。
“There’s not enough detail to show that this can be achieved within the next two to three years,” he said. “There would need to be much more ironed out.”Fitch downgraded France last year to A+, a level that rivals Scope and S&P have since matched. Moody’s still has a higher credit score on the country, but is scheduled to offer a possible update later this month.
由于评级评估存在六个月的间隔期，惠誉的下一次评级很可能在2027年初进行，届时法国总统大选也将临近。届时，该国的经济前景恐怕会更加不容乐观。
Given the six-month lag between reviews, the next one at Fitch is likely to take place in early 2027, when the presidential election will be approaching. A trickier outlook will probably have crystallized by then.
“显而易见，法国的财政状况将会变得愈发严峻，”巴里加-萨拉扎尔说道。
“It’s already clear that the fiscal situation in France will be much more difficult,” said Barriga-Salazar.