
法国在穆迪评级公司的评级审查中避免了被降级,这为一个深受债券收益率飙升、政治僵局和街头抗议困扰的国家带来了一丝喘息。
France dodged a downgrade at Moody’s Ratings, respite for a country beset by surging bond yields, political gridlock and street protests.
该公司将欧元区第二大经济体的评级维持在Aa3级,距离垃圾级还有七个等级,与英国持平。评级展望为负面。
The company kept the euro zone’s second-biggest economy at Aa3, seven levels above junk and on a par with the UK. The outlook is negative.
穆迪表示:“增长放缓和赤字扩大使得法国的债务负担比此前预期的要高一些。债券收益率上升的速度快于我们的预期,同时爆发了大规模社会抗议,这可能会制约财政整顿的努力。” 这一缓刑恰逢法国另一个紧张周末的前夕,当局正试图避免大规模骚乱重演,此前骚乱在多个城市造成了重大破坏。
“Slower growth and a higher deficit have pushed France’s debt burden somewhat higher than previously expected,” Moody’s said. “Bond yields have risen more rapidly than we expected, while widespread social protests have erupted which could constrain fiscal consolidation efforts.”The reprieve arrived on the eve of another tense weekend in France, where authorities are trying to avoid a repeat of large-scale riots that caused substantial damage in several cities.

法国依然无法找到遏制其不断膨胀的债务负担的办法,这使该国在过去几周处于债券市场焦虑的最前沿。本月法国债券收益率的涨幅超过发达世界任何其他国家,升至24年来最高水平。
France remains unable to find a way to contain its swelling debt burden, which put the nation at the forefront of bond-market anxiety over the past weeks. French yields have risen more than any other in the developed world this month, hitting the highest level in 24 years.
该国债务规模持续攀升,源于赤字预计将在今年扩大至经济产出的5.4%。政治僵局、增长放缓和利息成本上升使整顿尝试脱轨。
The country’s ever-increasing debt mountain is fueled by a deficit set to blow out to 5.4% of economic output this year. Political gridlock, slumping growth and rising interest costs have derailed attempts at consolidation.
总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努提出了一项财政法案,旨在大幅压缩开支并增加税收收入,以实现明年将赤字控制在5%的目标,但由于他在议会中没有多数席位,该蓝图的前景充满不确定性。
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has proposed a finance bill to sharply constrain spending and raise tax revenues to meet a deficit goal of 5% next year, but the blueprint’s future is uncertain as he has no majority in parliament.

法国国民议会周五否决了2027年社会保障预算法案的“收入”部分,这将该草案的原始版本送回参议院。下议院议员下周将重新就主预算法案展开辩论。
France’s National Assembly on Friday rejected the “receipts” portion of the 2027 social security budget bill, which sends the original version of the draft law to the Senate. Members of the lower house will turn back to debate over the main budget bill next week.
穆迪在周五的一份声明中表示:“2027年预算进程恰逢法国多年来经历的最广泛社会抗议之一。”“尽管政治和社会环境充满挑战,但我们的基准假设是,一份削减赤字的2027年预算最终将获通过,可能以法令形式。”
“The 2027 budget process coincides with some of the most extensive social protests France has experienced in many years,” Moody’s said in a statement on Friday. “Despite the challenging political and social environment, our baseline assumption is that a deficit-reducing budget for 2027 will eventually be adopted, possibly by decree.”
上周末,政治分歧蔓延至法国各大城市街头。暴徒袭击公共建筑、洗劫商店,超过50万人走上街头抗议生活成本高企。
Last weekend, political discord spilled onto the streets of French cities. Rioters attacked public buildings and looted stores as more than half a million people marched in protest against the high cost of living.
这种加剧的不确定性导致一个受密切关注的债券风险指标升至上次欧元区债务危机时的水平。法国与德国(该地区的避险资产)10年期收益率之差在周四达到178个基点,而9月初抛售加速前仅为85个基点。
The heightened uncertainty has caused a closely watched gauge of bond risk to rise to levels last seen during the euro-area debt crisis. The spread between 10-year yields in France and Germany, the region’s safe asset, reached 178 basis points on Thursday, compared with just 85 basis points at the start of September before the selloff picked up.
穆迪决定暂时维持法国当前评级,意味着其评级仍比标普全球评级和惠誉评级高一级,后两者均在2025年秋季预算僵局期间下调了对法国的评估。
Moody’s decision to keep France at its current level for now means that its score remains one notch higher than those of S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, which both cut their assessments during a budget clash in the fall of 2025.
法国财政部长罗兰·莱斯屈尔周五在声明中说:“这一决定承认了我国经济的稳固性以及政府提交预算的可信度。”
“This decision recognizes the solidity of our economy and the credibility of the budget presented by the government,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said Friday in a statement.
上个月,法国在评级审查中遭遇挫折,Scope Ratings下调评级,Morningstar DBRS将展望调整为负面。标普定于11月27日进行例行更新。
The country stumbled in reviews last month, with Scope Ratings issuing a downgrade and Morningstar DBRS switching its outlook to negative. S&P has a scheduled update for Nov. 27.