法国周五面临信用评级下调的威胁，这给本已因难以平息社会动荡和缓解财政紧张而举步维艰的政府增添了压力。
France faces the threat of a ratings downgrade on Friday, adding to pressure on a government already struggling to contain social unrest and shore up its strained finances.
穆迪将在例行评级审查中做出决定，预计在美国金融市场收盘后（格林威治时间2000时）公布。大多数分析师预计，该机构将下调其Aa3评级，该评级自去年10月起一直带有负面展望。
Moody's decision, in a regular ratings review, is due after US financial markets close at 2000 GMT. Most analysts expect it to cut its Aa3 rating, which has carried a negative outlook since October last year.
若下调评级，将使穆迪与标准普尔和惠誉保持一致。这两家机构此前已率先行动，当时法国因2024年提前大选导致议会悬浮和政治瘫痪，难以控制公共财政。
A downgrade would bring Moody's in line with Standard & Poor's and Fitch, which moved earlier as France struggled to rein in its public finances after a 2024 snap election produced a hung parliament and political paralysis. A one-notch downgrade by Moody's would leave France well within investment grade, though successive cuts could shrink the pool of investors able or willing to hold French bonds or accept them as collateral.
穆迪若下调一级评级，法国仍将稳处投资级范围内，但连续下调可能会缩减能够或愿意持有法国债券、或接受其作为抵押品的投资者群体。
French borrowing costs already exceed those of lower-rated peers such as Italy, as investors fret over the budget deficit - one of the euro zone's biggest - and a presidential election on April 18 and May 2 next year that polls suggest the far right could win.
由于投资者担忧预算赤字——欧元区最大赤字之一——以及明年4月18日和5月2日的总统大选（民调显示极右翼可能获胜），法国的借贷成本已超过意大利等评级更低的同行。
TV images of weekend protests descending into riots and looting underscore the political difficulty of pushing budget cuts through.
周末抗议演变为骚乱和抢劫的电视画面，凸显了推行预算削减的政治难度。
That helped push the risk premium on French government debt over safe-haven German bonds to its highest in 15 years on Thursday, while France's benchmark 10-year bond yield hit 5.14%, its highest level since July 2002.
这推动法国国债相对于避险德债的风险溢价周四升至15年高位，而法国基准10年期国债收益率触及5.14%，创2002年7月以来新高。
With a downgrade largely priced in, attention will turn to Moody's outlook for future rating moves, said Rushabh Amin, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.
Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Rushabh Amin表示，降级已基本被市场计价，关注点将转向穆迪对未来评级变动的展望。
Moody's said earlier this month that the French government's ability to overcome "fragmentation in parliament" would be the key factor for its next rating move.
穆迪本月早些时候表示，法国政府能否克服“议会碎片化”将成为其下一次评级变动的关键因素。
That task looks harder after violent protests over underfunded schools escalated last weekend into riots during mass cost-of-living demonstrations.
由于资金不足的学校问题引发的暴力抗议，上周末在大规模生活成本示威中升级为骚乱，这项任务看起来更难了。政府迄今拒绝增加学校拨款或提高最低工资，更多抗议活动计划于周六举行。
The government has so far refused to release more school funding or raise the minimum wage, and further protests are planned for Saturday. In parliament, the lower house has scrapped some key savings measures in the 2027 budget, which targets a deficit of 5% of output versus 5.4% this year.
在议会中，下议院已取消2027年预算案中的一些关键节约措施，该预算案将赤字目标定为产出的5%，而今年为5.4%。反对党在大选前几乎没有妥协意愿，挑剔削减开支的同时却增加支出。
Opposition parties show little appetite for compromise before the election, picking apart cuts while adding spending. "You want to wait and see how the narrative evol.ves over the next six months into the election.
“你想等着看未来六个月大选前的舆论走向如何演变。这将对利差产生更有意义的影响，”阿明说。
That's going to have a more meaningful impact on the spread," Amin said.
RBC BlueBay Asset Management的迈克·贝尔表示，如果穆迪、标普和惠誉在总统大选后都将法国评级下调至BBB——仅比垃圾级高一级——法国债务面临的压力可能会加大，这可能迫使那些有评级限制的投资者抛售。他补充道：“那才可能真正开始变得更难看。”
Pressure on French debt could grow after the presidential vote if Moody's, S&P and Fitch all cut France to BBB - just above junk status - potentially forcing sales by those investors with rating limits, said Mike Bell of RBC BlueBay Asset Management. "That's where it could really start to get more ugly," he added.