日益加深的社会与经济危机，使法国成为欧洲最不受青睐的股票市场，也成为一项严肃的反转押注——尽管这并非胆小者所为。
A deepening social and economic crisis has turned France into the most disliked equity market in Europe and a serious bet for a reversal, though not one for the faint-hearted.
法国CAC 40指数的总回报预计将以有记录以来最大幅度落后于斯托克欧洲600指数，差距达12个百分点。这也将标志着连续第三年表现跑输大盘，上一次出现这种连续跑输的情况还是在金融危机期间。然而，法国基准指数成分股的国内营收敞口不足20%，且其盈利预计将保持增长。
The CAC 40 is set to trail the Stoxx 600 by the most on record in total returns, falling 12 percentage points behind. It would also mark a third straight year of underperformance, matching a streak last seen during the financial crisis. Yet members of the French benchmark have less than 20% domestic exposure and their earnings are expected to keep growing.
摩根大通策略师Mislav Matejka（米斯拉夫·马泰卡）率领的团队表示：“这表明，尽管盈利具有韧性，市场仍在惩罚该指数。我们认为这最终可能构成一个机会。”疲软的市场情绪造成了冲击，外国投资者避而远之，不再买入通常作为其首选的大盘股。CAC指数还因消费股表现挣扎而承压，消费股占基准指数权重的23%，其中包括路威酩轩（LVMH SE）等奢侈品巨头。结果导致了剧烈且罕见的估值下调，甚至在主权债务危机期间也未曾出现。
This “suggests the market is penalizing the index despite resilient earnings,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka. “We believe this could end up being an opportunity.”Weak sentiment has taken a toll, with foreign investors staying away from the large caps that are typically their go-to stocks. The CAC is also weighed down by struggling consumer stocks, which account for 23% of the benchmark and include luxury names such LVMH SE. The result is a sharp and unusual derating that wasn’t even seen during the sovereign debt crisis.
股市的低迷情绪与该国债券市场的动荡期不期而遇。随着议员们在应对沉重债务负担上举步维艰，而因生活成本上涨引发的暴力抗议席卷城市，法国债券承压。
The downcast mood for stocks coincides with a turbulent period for the country’s bonds. French debt has come under pressure as lawmakers struggle to address a heavy debt burden while violent protests over the cost of living sweep through cities.
周四，法国10年期国债收益率与德国同期限国债的利差扩大至175个基点，为2011年以来最宽。10年期法国长期国债（OAT）收益率升破5.1%，创2002年以来新高。随着预算赤字位居欧元区最大之列，法国债务面临穆迪评级周五下调的风险。
The 10-year yield spread over Germany reached 175 basis points on Thursday, the widest since 2011. The yield on 10-year OATs topped 5.1%, the highest since 2002. With a budget deficit that’s among the largest in the euro area, France’s debt is at risk of being downgraded by Moody’s Ratings on Friday.
国内股和零售股本月遭受重创。家乐福股价暴跌14%，而所有上市银行股价均下跌13%或以上。许多分析师认为抛售已过度。据摩根大通分析，法国银行持有的本国政府债券占资产的18.2%，低于2012年的20.4%。收益率变动对资本的盯市影响应很小。
Domestic and retail stocks have been hit particularly hard this month. Carrefour SA has tumbled 14%, while every listed bank is down 13% or more. Many analysts see the selloff as overdone. French banks’ holdings of domestic government bonds amount to 18.2% of assets, down from 20.4% in 2012, according to JPMorgan’s analysis. Yields should have little mark-to-market impact on capital.
据瑞银集团分析师杰森·内皮尔团队测算，基于2028年盈利预期，法国银行股较欧洲银行板块折价约30%，较更广泛的欧洲股市折价超过50%。瑞银团队表示，法国巴黎银行“股价已反映过多利空”，因该行法国债券敞口极小，且对零售业务的依赖程度也较低。
French banks are trading at a discount of about 30% to the European banking sector, based on 2028 earnings estimates, and more than 50% to the broader European equity market, according to UBS Group AG analysts led by Jason Napier. BNP Paribas SA has “too much bad news in the price,” given the lender has little exposure to French bonds, while its reliance on retail is also modest.
“主权利差收窄、更强的成本控制和回购将加速估值修复，”瑞银团队称。他们给予法国巴黎银行、法国兴业银行和法国农业信贷银行“买入”评级。尽管如此，延续至夏季的政治日程依然“过于漫长”，令投资者望而却步。“我们维持12个月正面看法，但也切实认识到估值修复可能后置，重申建议偏向利率敏感型标的，”他们表示。
“Lower sovereign spreads, stronger cost control and buybacks would accelerate a re-rating,” the UBS team said. They have buy ratings on BNP, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA. Still, the political calendar stretching into the summer remains “too elongated,” discouraging investment. “We stick with our 12-month positive stance but are realistic that a re-rating may prove back-end loaded, reiterating a recommended tilt toward rate-sensitive names,” they said.
悲观情绪已达极端水平。债务成本飙升、政治不确定性和社会动荡正吓退投资者。根据美国银行最新欧洲基金经理调查，计划在未来12个月低配法国市场的投资者占比录得创纪录的净56%。甚至系统性基金也将CAC 40指数作为该地区首选做空标的。另据EPFR数据，股票基金资金外流升至11周高位，自5月下旬以来仅出现过一周资金净流入。
Negativity is running at extreme levels. The surging cost of debt, political uncertainty and social unrest are deterring investors. The share of investors planning to underweight the French market over the next 12 months has hit a record net 56% in the latest Bank of America Corp. European fund manager survey. Even systematic funds are using the CAC 40 as their top market short in the region. Separately, EPFR data shows equity fund outflows have hit an 11-week high, and have seen just one week of inflows since late May.
目前，经济和商业情绪指标仍处于积极区间。出乎意料的是，尽管利率大幅上升，10月商业信心反而小幅上扬。不过，该调查是在9月下旬至10月初进行的，当时法国利差已开始扩大，但社会动荡尚未爆发。
For now, economic and business sentiment indicators remain on the positive side. Against all expectations, business confidence edged higher in October despite the sharp rise in rates. Still, the survey was conducted between late September and early October, after French spreads began widening out but before the social unrest started.
“法国的财政困难对市场来说并不意外。这里没有隐藏的财政炸弹等待引爆，”摩根士丹利投资管理公司副首席投资官Jitania Kandhari表示。“法国清楚地展示了宏观层面与部分企业之间的脱节。”
“France’s fiscal difficulties are not a surprise to the market. There’s no hidden fiscal bomb waiting to explode here,” said Jitania Kandhari, deputy chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “France clearly demonstrates the disconnect between macro and some companies.”