根据美国银行的一项调查，由于法国面临政治与财政压力，该地区股市前景蒙上阴影，创纪录数量的投资者表示计划减少对法国股票的持仓。
A record number of investors say they’re planning to curb exposure to French equities as the country’s political and fiscal stresses cast a shadow over regional stocks, according to a Bank of America Corp. poll.
这项针对欧洲地区基金经理的调查显示，56%的受访者计划在未来12个月内降低对法国市场的投资比重，这使得法国成为欧洲最受冷落的投资市场。此次调查于10月2日至8日期间进行。
The survey of regional fund managers showed that 56% of them would underweight France over the next 12 months, making it the least preferred market in Europe. The investors were canvassed between Oct. 2 and Oct. 8.
近几周来，法国股票及国债价格均出现下跌，该国借贷成本也升至近25年来的最高水平。今年至今，法国蓝筹股指数CAC 40累计跌幅达3.8%，而同期整个欧洲市场的基准指数则上涨了7.8%。
Both French equities and sovereign bonds have sold off in recent weeks, with borrowing costs rising to levels not seen in almost a quarter of a century. France’s blue-chip CAC 40 index is down 3.8% year-to-date, compared with a 7.8% gain for the broader European benchmark.
法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努正努力争取议会支持，以期在2027年将财政赤字规模控制在国内生产总值的5%以内——这一目标他今年未能实现。法国财政监督机构则称该预算方案“过于乐观”。
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is trying to get parliamentary backing to pare the fiscal shortfall to 5% of economic output in 2027, a target he missed this year. The budget proposal was described as “optimistic” by the nation’s fiscal watchdog.
明年即将举行总统大选，投资者对此也忧心忡忡。最新民调显示，极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞与极左翼对手让-吕克·梅朗雄很可能进入第二轮投票。
Investors are also on edge ahead of next year’s presidential election, with recent polling indicating it may come down to a runoff between the far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen and far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
美国银行分析师保利娜·斯特泽林斯卡与塞巴斯蒂安·雷德勒在给客户的报告中指出，净63%的受访者认为“法国的财政可持续性及2027年大选周期是未来12个月内欧洲市场面临的最大政治风险”。
A net 63% of respondents saw “French fiscal sustainability and the 2027 election cycle as the largest political risk” to European markets over the next 12 months, a BofA team including Paulina Strzelinska and Sebastian Raedler wrote in a client note.
法国的财政危机还因全国范围内的青年抗议活动而进一步加剧。这些年轻人要求政府拨款100亿欧元（约合112亿美元），用于改善过度拥挤的班级环境及陈旧的教学设施。
France’s fiscal crisis has been exacerbated by nationwide protests by young people, who are demanding €10 billion ($11.2 billion) in funding to fix overcrowded classes and outdated school buildings.
这一局面引发了市场对债务危机可能蔓延至其他国家的担忧：意大利与希腊的国债收益率差也在扩大，欧元兑其他货币汇率则出现下跌。
The situation has sparked concerns about the potential for contagion to other countries’ debt, with Italian and Greek yield spreads also rising, and the euro declining against other currencies.
不过，雷德勒本人对法国股市的前景较为乐观。上周他将法国股票的投资评级上调至“超配”，理由是法国国债与德国国债的收益率差进一步扩大的空间有限。
Raedler himself is more optimistic about the outlook for French stocks. He upgraded the asset class to overweight last week, citing limited further upside in the OAT-bund spread.
截至巴黎时间下午12点41分，CAC 40指数小幅上涨0.2%，表现逊于同期上涨0.4%的斯托克欧洲600指数。
The CAC 40 edged 0.2% higher by 12:41 p.m. in Paris, underperforming the Stoxx Europe 600’s 0.4% rise.