据巴克莱银行（Barclays Plc）策略师称，法国的政治风险已升至如此高度，以至于其股市已成为部分投资者在欧洲和美国最大的做空目标。
Political risk in France has become so elevated that its stock market has turned into the largest short in Europe and the US for some investors, according to Barclays Plc strategists.
系统性基金和自主管理基金均日益避开法国CAC 40指数。巴克莱指出，最新的股票敞口削减是由趋势跟踪基金——商品交易顾问（CTA）——推动的，这类基金根据市场信号在指数期货中建立多头或空头头寸。
Both systematic and discretionary funds are increasingly steering clear of France’s CAC 40, with Barclays noting that the latest cut in equity exposure has been driven by trend-following funds — Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) — which take long or short positions in index futures based on market signals.
“CTA在重建美国股票多头头寸的同时，激进地降低欧洲风险敞口，尤其是针对法国政治风险，使CAC成为这些地区最大的空头头寸，”Rex Feng和Anshul Gupta在周二日期的报告中写道。“CTA对欧盟股票整体接近持平，但CAC处于最大空头状态；与美国不同，大多数市场面临短期资金流入。”CAC 40指数有望录得自2010年以来相对于更宽泛的斯托克欧洲600指数（Stoxx Europe 600 Index）最大的年度跑输表现，并将连续第三年跑输该指数。
“CTAs have rebuilt US equity longs while aggressively de-risking Europe, particularly on French political risk, leaving the CAC as the largest short” in those regions, Rex Feng and Anshul Gupta wrote in a note dated Tuesday. “CTAs are near flat on EU equities, with the CAC max short; unlike the US, most markets face near-term inflows.”The CAC 40 is on course for its biggest annual underperformance to the broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index since 2010, while trailing it for a third consecutive year.
自总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）于2024年6月宣布提前大选以来，法国股市一直受政治动荡困扰。此后该国已更迭四任总理，债务与赤字不断攀升，推高了再融资成本。
The French equity market has been plagued by political instability since President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election in June 2024. The country has seen four different prime ministers since, while debt and deficits have been rising, pushing refinancing costs higher.
最新的抗议生活成本示威演变为大规模暴力骚乱，导致10年期法国国债（OAT）与德国国债（Bund）的收益率利差——衡量法国债券风险的关键指标——升破150个基点。
The latest protests against the cost of living turned into broad violence and rioting, sending the yield spread between the 10-year OAT and the German Bund, a key measure of French bond risk, beyond 150 basis points.
尽管CAC 40成分股仅在法国创造约16%的营收，但该指数仍陷于对该国的负面情绪之中。此外，消费股拖累指数表现，消费股占基准指数权重的23%，其中包括路威酩轩集团（LVMH SE）和爱马仕国际（Hermes International SCA）等奢侈品巨头。
While CAC 40 members only generate about 16% of their revenue in France, the index has been mired in the negative sentiment toward the country. It has also been weighed down by struggling consumer stocks, which make up 23% of the benchmark and include luxury groups LVMH SE and Hermes International SCA.
自主投资者也越来越避开法国股票。根据美国银行上周发布的基金经理调查，法国是欧洲最不受青睐的股票市场，净56%的受访者计划在未来12个月内低配该国，创下历史新高。
Discretionary investors are also increasingly steering clear of French equities. France is the least preferred equity market in Europe, according to Bank of America Corp.’s fund manager survey published last week, with a net 56% of respondents planning to underweight the country over the next 12 months, the highest on record.