法国的政治风险不会随着四月的总统选举而结束，据花旗集团公司的贝塔·曼蒂所说，市场面临的更大考验是任何政府能否获得议会多数并提出可信的降低债务路径。
France’s political risk won’t end with April’s presidential election, according to Citigroup Inc.’s Beata Manthey, who says the bigger test for markets is whether any government can command a parliamentary majority and deliver a credible path to lower debt.
曼蒂，花旗欧洲股票策略主管，表示长期不确定性源于法国政治的结构。市场需要看到选举之后，政府能否获得议会多数以提出导致降低债务的财政计划。
Manthey, Citi’s head of European equity strategy, said the prolonged uncertainty stems from the structure of French politics. Markets will need to see whether in the wake of the ballot, the government can secure a parliamentary majority to propose a fiscal plan that leads to lower debt.
“我们认为法国股票将会更加波动，”她在彭博电视台采访中说。“而且情况可能要到夏天才会得到解决。”尽管有动荡，花旗对法国的立场是中性的，在全球背景下，更广泛的欧洲大陆也被评为中性，基于许多坏消息已经被提前计价的观点。
“Our view is that French equities are going to be more volatile,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “And the situation is not going to be resolved until the summer probably.”Despite the turbulence, Citi’s stance on France is neutral, with the wider European continent also rated neutral in a global context, on the view that a lot of the bad news is already priced in.
曼蒂指出，投资者对法国的焦虑往往会广泛蔓延，法国银行的走势追踪主权利差并波及更广泛的欧洲股票指数。
Manthey noted that investor anxiety about France tends to spread broadly, with French bank moves tracking sovereign spreads and rippling into wider European equity indexes.
她说，如果财政状况进一步失控，更高的主权利差将直接转化为法国银行估值的更深抛售。她补充说，在当前水平做空法国股票仍然存在风险，因为价格将“上下波动”。这一评估是在曼蒂所说的法国周末政治动荡之后作出的，她说这为已经脆弱的情况增添了另一层复杂性。生活成本抗议活动在法国聚集了超过五十万人，随后演变为抢劫和纵火。
She said that if the fiscal situation gets further out of hand, higher sovereign spreads would translate directly into a deeper selloff in French bank valuations. She added it remains risky to short French equities at current levels as prices will be “oscillating up and down.”The assessment comes after a weekend of political turbulence in France that Manthey said added another layer of complexity to an already fragile situation. Cost-of-living protests gathered more than half a million people in France, before degenerating into looting and burning.
法国政府债券周一表现弱于大多数欧洲同行，导致其10年期收益率与德国等价利差扩大七个基点至145个基点。欧元一度下跌多达0.5%。法国股票也表现弱势，CAC 40指数下跌1.2%，而泛欧洲斯托克600指数下跌0.7%。
French government bonds underperformed most European peers Monday, causing the spread between its 10-year yield and the German equivalent to widen seven basis points to 145 basis points. The euro fell as much as 0.5%. French equities also underperformed, with the CAC 40 index falling 1.2% while the pan-European Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7%.