法国的动荡正在加剧投资者对该国财政前景的担忧，此前，该国的借贷成本在本周早些时候创下自2002年以来的最高水平。
France's unrest is fueling investor concerns over the country's fiscal outlook, after borrowing costs hit their highest level since 2002 earlier this week.
随着更多示威活动的计划出台，基金经理们正在评估长期的动荡是否会削弱经济增长、破坏信心，并使政府更难实现既定的预算节支目标。
With further demonstrations planned, fund managers are assessing whether prolonged disruption could weaken growth, undermine confidence and make it harder for the government to deliver planned budget savings.
评级机构穆迪于周五维持了对法国的Aa3信用评级，该评级仍被其视为“优质”级别，但维持了对该国的负面展望。
Rating agency Moody's on Friday kept its Aa3 credit rating on France, a level it still deems "high grade," but maintained its negative outlook on the nation.
穆迪在报告中表示：“负面展望反映出，法国政治格局的分裂将继续损害该国立法机构运作的风险有所增加。”
"The negative outlook reflects the increased risk that the fragmentation of France's political landscape will continue to impair the functioning of the country's legislative institutions," Moody's said in its report.
穆迪指出，如果法国的机构能够缩小预算赤字，其可能会将法国的评级展望调回稳定。法国政府能否通过其预算？
Moody's noted that it could return France's outlook to stable if its institutions can narrow its budget deficit. Can France's government pass its budget?
法国政府的目标是将预算赤字占GDP的比例从2026年预计的5.4%降至2027年的5%。国民议会预定于10月27日恢复对预算税收措施的辩论，这些措施旨在实现财政节支，但反对派议员正在抵制这些计划。
France's government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 5% of GDP in 2027, from a projected 5.4% in 2026. The National Assembly is due to resume debating on the budget's tax measures, which are intended to generate savings, on Oct. 27 but opposition lawmakers are resisting the plans.
法国外贸银行企业及投资银行部（Natixis CIB）欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）经济研究主管阿兰·迪雷（Alain Durré）表示，政府决心防止借贷成本急剧上升。
Alain Durré, head of EMEA economic research at Natixis CIB, said the government was determined to prevent a sharp rise in borrowing costs.
迪雷表示，政府可能会尝试通过援引第49.3条——该条款允许其在议会不经最终投票的情况下强行通过法案，除非议员能够通过不信任动议——或者通过使用行政条例来坚持其财政目标。
Durré said the government could try to stick to its fiscal targets by invoking Article 49.3 — which allows it to push a bill through the assembly without a final vote unless lawmakers can pass a no-confidence motion — or by using executive ordinances.
杜雷补充道，这有助于安抚市场情绪并恢复投资者信心，并指出近期法国主权债务承压主要是战术性投资组合再配置所致，传统的买入并持有型投资者“仍在场外观望”。基准10年期法国政府债券（即OAT）收益率周四上涨11个基点，升至2002年以来的最高水平。这使其与10年期德国国债——欧元区债务基准——的收益率差扩大至2011年11月以来的最宽水平。
That could help settle nerves and restore investor confidence, Durré added, noting that recent pressure on French sovereign debt has been driven primarily by tactical portfolio reallocations, with traditional buy-and-hold investors "still sitting on the sidelines." The yield on benchmark 10-year French government bonds, known as OATs, climbed 11 basis points Thursday to its highest level since 2002. That pushed the spread over 10-year German Bunds — the benchmark for euro zone debt — to its widest level since November 2011.
荷兰国际集团（ING）法国和瑞士高级经济学家夏洛特·德·蒙彼利埃表示，动荡“给已经拖累法国资产的预算和政治担忧增加了另一层不确定性”，并“强化了人们的看法，即任何未来政府都将难以实施所需的改革和节省开支。”
Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist for France and Switzerland at ING, said the unrest "adds another layer of uncertainty" to the budgetary and political concerns already weighing on French assets, and "reinforces the perception that any future government will find it difficult to deliver the reforms and savings required."
“2027年预算能否在议会通过仍不清楚，”Ebury市场策略主管马修·莱恩表示。“即使能通过，似乎也注定要向左翼和右翼做出如此多的让步，以至于赤字问题得不到充分解决。”动荡将对法国的增长前景造成何种损害？
"It remains unclear whether the 2027 budget will clear parliament," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury. "Even if it does, it seems set to be so riddled with concessions to both the left and the right that the deficit problem is left insufficiently addressed." What damage will the unrest do to France's growth outlook?
新的示威活动计划于10月24日举行，工会支持的全国罢工和抗议日定于11月5日，反建制的“黄马甲”抗议者也在呼吁举行更多集会。
Fresh demonstrations are planned for Oct. 24, and a union-backed national day of strikes and protests is set for Nov. 5, with anti-establishment Yellow Vest protestors among those calling for further rallies.
德蒙蒂利耶在10月20日的一份备忘录中表示，在上周末的暴力事件发生后，尽管市场可以忽略短暂的干扰，“但持续的信心丧失可能会产生更大的影响”。她是在前一个周末的暴力事件发生后发表的上述看法。
In a note on Oct. 20 after the violence of the previous weekend, de Montpellier said that, while the market can look past short-lived disruption, "a lasting loss of confidence can have a bigger impact." "These events further darken an economic outlook that was already unfavorable," she said.
她表示：“这些事件进一步黯淡了本已不利的经济前景。我们曾预计法国2026年的GDP增长率仅为0.3%，2027年为0.6%。如果动荡持续下去、信心进一步恶化或市场紧张局势加剧，经济增长可能会更加疲软。”德蒙蒂利耶援引法国国家统计与经济研究所（INSEE）的估计称，“黄马甲”运动可能使法国2018年第四季度的GDP增速降低了0.1个百分点。据法国央行称，2023年春季抗议养老金改革期间的罢工使第一季度的GDP增速降低了约0.1个百分点。
"We had expected French GDP growth of just 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027. If the unrest continues, confidence deteriorates further or market tensions intensify, growth could be even weaker." The Yellow Vest movement may have reduced French GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 by 0.1 percentage point, according to an INSEE estimate cited by de Montpellier. Industrial action during the spring 2023 pension protests reduced first-quarter GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage point, according to the Banque de France.
她在10月20日的备忘录中表示，暴力活动可能会让住户远离市中心，并促使游客推迟行程、企业延缓投资。
In her Oct. 20 note, she said violence could keep households away from city centers and prompt tourists to postpone trips and businesses to delay investment.
迪雷表示，在最新抗议活动爆发之前，法国消费者信心就已经接近历史低位，这使得该国几乎没有空间来承受新的宏观经济冲击。他补充说，动荡为市场敲响了“两个关键警报”。
Durré said French consumer sentiment was already near historic lows before the latest protests, leaving little room for the country to absorb a fresh macroeconomic shock. He added the unrest raises "two key red flags" for markets.
“首先，是长期干扰拖累GDP增长的风险。其次，是担心政治压力可能会破坏政府削减关键开支的计划……无论哪种情况，这都会扩大赤字并远超政府设定的5%的GDP目标。”法国哪些行业受到的冲击最大？
"First, the risk that prolonged disruption drags on GDP growth. Second, fears that political pressure could derail government plans for critical spending cuts ... Either way, that would widen the deficit and blow past the government's 5% GDP target." Which French sectors are most exposed?
法国CAC 40指数在过去一个月里下跌了4.5%。荷兰国际集团（ING）指出，零售业、酒店与旅游业、交通与物流业是受动荡影响最直接的行业。
France's CAC 40 has fallen 4.5% over the past month. ING identified retail, hospitality and tourism, and transport and logistics as the sectors most directly exposed to the turmoil.
德蒙蒂利耶表示，商店和购物中心面临客流量减少、关门停业和销售额损失；酒店、咖啡馆、餐馆和旅游服务业则面临业务活动的损失，而客户不太可能重新安排这些活动。她补充说，如果干扰持续下去，交通和物流业也可能受到打击。
De Montpellier said shops and shopping centers face lower footfall, closures and lost sales; hotels, cafés, restaurants and travel services risk losing activity that customers are less likely to reschedule. Transport and logistics could also be hit if disruption persists, she added.
家乐福股价周三暴跌逾14%，此前这家超市巨头下调了利润预期并减少了投资，其将动荡以及不断上升的能源成本归咎于对消费者情绪的拖累。首席执行官亚历山大·邦帕尔表示，该国面临着“前所未有的局面”。荷兰国际集团援引法国商会网络的估计称，截至周二，已有2,000多家企业受到直接影响。
Carrefour shares plunged more than 14% Wednesday after the supermarket giant cut its profit outlook and reduced investment, citing the unrest — along with rising energy costs — as a drag on consumer sentiment. CEO Alexandre Bompard said the country faces an "unprecedented situation." More than 2,000 businesses had been directly affected by Tuesday, ING said, citing estimates from France's network of chambers of commerce.
凯敏雅克投资委员会成员兼投资组合顾问凯文·托泽特表示，影响可能会远远波及其受动荡直接影响最大的公司。
The impact could extend well beyond companies most directly exposed to the unrest, said Kevin Thozet, portfolio advisor and member of the investment committee at Carmignac.
他对CNBC表示：“对于股票而言，鉴于股权成本上升，这对银行没有帮助，而长期的不确定性可能会放慢贷款增长并引发信贷问题，”法国著名的奢侈品行业的大部分销售额来自海外。酩悦·轩尼诗-路易·威登集团对法国市场的直接暴露相对有限，法国仅占其2025年收入的8%。但托泽特表示，示威活动可能会对旅游业造成压力，从而影响免税购物，后者约占酩悦·轩尼诗-路易·威登集团在法国收入的20%。
"For equities, this does not help banks, given the higher cost of equity, while prolonged uncertainty can slow loan growth and create credit problems," he told CNBC via France's prestigious luxury sector generates most of its sales abroad. LVMH has relatively limited direct exposure to the French market, with France accounting for just 8% of its 2025 revenue. But the demonstrations could weigh on tourism and therefore tax-free purchases, which account for around 20% of LVMH's revenue in France, Thozet said.
他补充说：“对于市场、经济和企业家来说，再来六个月的政治真空是非常长的一段时间。”
"A further six months of political vacuum is a very long time for markets, the economy and entrepreneurs," he added.