曼谷，10月13日 - 人工智能的强劲需求推动了中国、印度和其他亚洲国家的增长，并超过了全球贸易的整体增长，国际货币基金组织（IMF）新任首席经济学家西尔瓦娜·特雷雷罗周二表示。
BANGKOK, Oct 13 - The strong demand for AI has bolstered growth in China, India and other Asian countries and outpaced the overall growth in global trade, the IMF's new chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said on Tuesday.
特雷雷罗在曼谷举行的IMF和世界银行年会上对记者表示，如果没有人工智能的推动，全球贸易的增长率将会远低于当前水平。
Global trade would have grown at a far slower rate without the AI boost, Tenreyro told reporters at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok.
特雷雷罗此前长期在伦敦政治经济学院任教，于2023年8月开始在IMF担任新职。
A long-time professor at the London School of Economics, Tenreyro started her new job at the IMF in August.
特雷雷罗表示，IMF仍然担心高债务水平，敦促各国开始削减预算以减少赤字。她表示，央行应采取更为紧缩的政策，包括提高利率以将通胀率拉回目标水平。
Tenreyro said the IMF remained concerned about high debt levels, urging countries to start cutting budgets to reduce deficits. She said central bankers should pursue more restrictive policies, including raising interest rates to get inflation rates back to target.
特雷雷罗说，人工智能相关的投资和贸易繁荣一直是全球增长的关键驱动力，但人工智能供应链高度集中在少数国家和行业，这可能造成瓶颈。
Tenreyro said the AI-related boom in investment and trade had been a key driver of global growth, but AI supply chains were highly concentrated in a few countries and sectors, which created potential chokepoints.
特雷雷罗表示，2023年至2025年全球贸易增长了8.3%，而人工智能相关贸易增长了29%。如果没有人工智能贸易，整体贸易增长率仅为4.6%。
Global trade grew 8.3% between 2023 and 2025, while global trade in AI grew by 29%, she said. Without the AI trade, overall growth in trade would have been only 4.6%.
IMF警告称，市场价值修正以及人工智能对网络安全的威胁也可能拖累增长并增加金融稳定风险。特雷雷罗表示，IMF的基线预测假设人工智能繁荣将随时间推移而消散，但另一种情景表明，长期人工智能繁荣带来的实际生产率提升可能会限制其通胀影响。
The IMF flagged that a market value correction and AI threats to cybersecurity could also weigh on growth and add to financial stability risks. Tenreyro said the IMF's baseline forecast assumed the AI boom would dissipate over time, but another scenario showed that actual productivity gains from a prolonged AI boom could limit its inflationary impact.
她表示，如果人工智能繁荣持续但未带来生产率提升，那么对增长的贡献将更小，通胀将更高；而对人工智能盈利能力的重新评估将导需求下调。
If the AI boom persisted but did not result in productivity gains, the gains for growth would be smaller and inflation would be higher, she said. And a reassessment of the profitability gains from AI would result in downward adjustment in demand.
特雷雷罗说：“我们正在看到这一繁荣的基本逆转。”她补充说，IMF正在更新关于人工智能对就业影响的研究。
"It's basically an unwind of this boom that we are seeing," Tenreyro said, adding that the IMF was updating its research on the impact of AI on jobs.