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国会山报

新民调显示库珀在北卡参议员竞选中领先沃特利至少7个百分点Cooper leads Whatley by at least 7 points in new NC Senate polls

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周一发布的最新民调显示,北卡罗来纳州民主党参议院候选人罗伊·库珀领先共和党候选人迈克尔·惠特利至少7个百分点,距离11月的中期选举还有几周时间。Trafalgar Group的民调显示,库珀的支持率为48.8%,惠特利的支持率为40.9%。民调还显示,库珀在不同年龄群体中获得更广泛的支持,18至29岁的年轻选民中有69%支持他,30至39岁的选民中有68.4%支持他。

New polling released Monday showed North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by at least 7 points, weeks ahead of the November midterm elections. The Trafalgar Group's polling showed Cooper's lead at 48.8 percent, with Whatley behind at 40.9 percent. Polling also showed Cooper with larger support among different age demographics, with younger voters between aged 18-29 backing him at 69 percent, along with voters aged 30-39 at 68.4 percent.

65岁及以上的选民更倾向于惠特利,有50.2%选择惠特利,而支持库珀的仅有39.9%。在民调中占20.5%的黑人受访者中,库珀获得67.1%的支持,而惠特利仅获得20.8%的支持。这些结果与周四发布的东卡罗来纳大学调查研究中心民调类似,该民调显示库珀以50比43领先惠特利7个百分点,另有6%表示未决定。The Hill的选举合作伙伴Decision Desk HQ(DDHQ)的综合民调显示,如果当天举行选举,库珀获胜的概率为48.9%,而惠特利的获胜概率为40.5%。

Voters 65 and older favored him less than Whatley, with 50.2 percent choosing Whatley over the 39.9 percent backing Cooper. Cooper also led among the 20.5 percent of Black respondents to the poll, receiving 67.1 percent support compared to 20.8 percent for Whatley. These results resemble similar statistics from an East Carolina University's Center for Survey Research poll released Thursday that found Cooper led Whatley by 7 points, at 50-43, with 6 percent saying they were undecided. Aggregate polling from The Hill's election partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) showed Cooper with a 48.9 percent probability of winning if the election had been held that day, with Whatley having a 40.5 percent probability.

两名候选人均竞逐即将退休的参议员汤姆·蒂利斯(共和党-北卡罗来纳州)的席位。民主党在参议院中的处境至关重要,他们正寻找任何机会翻转共和党持有的席位以重新夺回多数席位,需要至少赢得四个席位且不失任何席位。西卡罗来纳大学公共政策教授克里斯·库珀此前曾告诉《国会山报》,该州的人口结构并未变得更蓝,但该州农村地区存在某种平衡。

Both candidates seek to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Democrats' stakes in the Senate are high as they look for any opportunity to flip GOP-held seats to regain their majority, needing at least four seats and losing none. Chris Cooper, a professor of public policy at Western Carolina University, previously told The Hill that the state's demographics are not becoming bluer but that there is a balance in the rural parts of the state.

北卡罗来纳州目前有民主党籍州长乔什·斯坦,一些民主党州官员,以及州众议院中的共和党多数。克里斯·库珀(与参议院候选人无亲属关系)表示,民主党也从惠特利在该州相对鲜为人知的状态中受益,而库珀则是四届司法部长和两届州长。

North Carolina has a Democratic governor in Josh Stein, some Democratic state officials and a Republican majority in the state House. Chris Cooper, no relation to the Senate candidate, said Democrats are also benefiting from Whatley’s status as being relatively unknown in the state compared with the four-time attorney general and two-term governor.

Whatley 在 2024-25 年期间担任共和党全国委员会主席,在特朗普的第二次连任竞选中发挥了作用。此前,他曾担任北卡罗来纳州共和党主席。Trafalgar 调查于 10 月 8 日至 10 日进行,共访问了 1,091 名受访者。误差范围为 2.9 个百分点。

Whatley served as the Republican National Committee chair from 2024-25, playing a role in Trump's second reelection contest. He previously served as North Carolina's Republican Party chair. The Trafalgar survey was conducted Oct. 8-10 and included 1,091 respondents. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.