
两年前,当日本踏上政策正常化之路时,我曾询问这个国家是否准备好迎接一个“有息的世界”。随着这个亚洲国家在经历了几十年的零利率和无通胀之后,重新发现了通货膨胀和非零利率,许多人都在提出这个问题。
Two years ago, when Japan embarked on its path toward policy normalization, I asked whether the country was ready for a “world with interest.”It was a question many were asking as the Asian nation rediscovered inflation and nonzero interest rates after decades without either.
也许我们本该问的问题是:世界准备好迎接一个有利息的日本了吗?
Perhaps the question we should have asked was: Is the world ready for a Japan with interest?
看看法国债券的抛售就知道了。正如我的同事舒莉·任(Shuli Ren)最近所指出的那样,许多人将矛头指向了日本投资者。在政治不确定性加剧的情况下,与经过对冲的法国债务相比,国内无风险利率开始显得具有吸引力,将资金留在海外的动力正在减弱。多年来,日本在很大程度上一直超配法国,但在过去四分之一个世纪里,随着国内收益率徘徊在零附近,法国远非该国资金涌入的唯一目的地。
Just look at the selloff in French bonds. Many have pointed the finger at Japanese investors, as my colleague Shuli Ren noted recently. With risk-free rates at home starting to look attractive compared with hedged French debt amid mounting political uncertainty, the incentive to keep money overseas is diminishing. Japan has largely been overweight France for years, but it’s far from the only destination the country’s money poured into over the last quarter-century as yields at home hovered near zero.