持有NV的产能扩建指引已成为荷兰公司财报日历中至关重要的新环节，而这一次，随着投资者寻求该行业反弹乏力中的安抚信号，其重要性将进一步提升。
Holding NV’s guidance for building out capacity has become a crucial new part of the Dutch company’s earnings days, and will be even more so this time as investors seek signs of reassurance in the sector’s faltering rally.
上半年表现亮眼后，半导体股票已出现回落，周二，韩国芯片制造商股价跌至两个月低点，此前美国芯片股出现新一轮下跌。
After a stellar first-half, semiconductor stocks have come off the boil, with shares of South Korean chipmakers slumping to a two-month low on Tuesday, following a fresh slide in US names.
投资者将关注ASML及其重要客户台积电，以期在未来48小时内获得一些信心。
Investors will be looking to ASML and key client Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to instill some confidence over the next 48 hours.
ASML将于周三开盘前发布财报，其对满足芯片制造设备旺盛需求的展望将受到最密切关注。尤其值得注意的在于，ASML已不再公布季度订单数。台积电将在次日公布业绩。
ASML, which reports before markets open on Wednesday, will be watched most closely for its outlook on fulfilling buoyant demand for its chipmaking equipment. Particularly so as it no longer publishes quarterly order numbers. TSMC releases results the following day.
“市场关注的正是产能，且没有订单数作为参考，积压订单情况也仅有限可见，因此ASML对其产能目标进行某种程度的上调至关重要，”Quilter Cheviot技术研究主管Ben Barringer表示。
“It is that capacity that is on the mind of the market and with no sight of order numbers, and a limited view of the backlog, it is vital that there is some sort of upgrade to its capacity targets,” said Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot.
虽然ASML因订单数具有“波动大”的特点而停止公布季度订单数，但它已开始分享今年及以后预计制造的机器数量的指引，这一指引日益被投资者用于衡量需求强度及ASML提升供应能力的能力。
While ASML has ceased giving quarterly order numbers, citing their “lumpy” nature, it has started sharing guidance for the number of machines expected to be built this year and beyond, one that’s increasingly used by investors to gauge the strength of demand and ASML’s ability to scale up supply.
7月，ASML表示计划明年将其第二最先进的工具——低数值孔径极紫外光刻机的产能提高30%，这将使其年度出货目标达到85台。
In July, ASML said it plans to boost capacity by 30% next year for its second-most advanced tool, the low-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, which would take its annual shipment target to 85 units.
每台低数值孔径光刻机的成本约为2亿欧元（2.23亿美元），从下单到交付需超过一年时间。ASML在7月表示，正致力于将其工厂中制造和测试光刻工具所需的时间缩短约三分之一。
Each of its low-NA tools costs roughly €200 million ($223 million) apiece and takes more than a year to deliver from the time of order. ASML said in July it is working to cut the time needed to build and test lithography tools at its factories by about a third.
但当涉及到2028年时，情况又存在进一步的不确定性：ASML表示，它正在“调查”另一次30%的产能提升是否可行，但尚未明确承诺达到约110台设备的目标。
But when it comes to 2028, there’s further uncertainty: ASML said it’s “investigating” whether another 30% capacity increase would be viable, without firmly committing to the target of about 110 tools.
分析师们普遍持更乐观的态度。根据瑞银集团（UBS Group AG）的说法，产能提升的速度可能在明年以及明年之后都超过30%。摩根士丹利预计，ASML将在2027年交付超过90台设备。
Analysts are generally more bullish. The pace of capacity increases could go beyond 30% for both next year and the year after, according to UBS Group AG. Morgan Stanley sees ASML delivering more than 90 tools in 2027.
“如果客户需求更高，他们就能提高产能数字，”伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的David Dai在一封电子邮件中表示。不过，该公司目前可能会保持其指引不变，三个月后再上调，因为“届时需求会更加明确。”正如Aviva Investors的全球股票分析师Josep Bori所言，ASML和台积电在提升供应方面都显得较为保守，因为“他们之前曾吃过亏。”他认为，如果由于缺乏指引上调而导致股价下跌，那是增加持仓的机会。
“If the client demand is higher, they would be able to raise the capacity numbers,” Bernstein’s David Dai said in an email. Still, the firm may keep its guidance unchanged for now before raising it three months later, because “demand will be much clearer then.”Both ASML and TSMC appear conservative in ramping up their supply because “they’ve been burned before,” said Josep Bori, a global equity analyst at Aviva Investors. He sees an opportunity to add to the stock if it were to sell off on a lack of guidance upgrades.
潜在的价格上涨是另一个关注点。首席财务官Roger Dassen在7月表示，随着其EUV工具生产力的提升，调整价格的灵活性也在增加。随后，《信息》（The Information）报道称，尽管台积电有所抵制，该公司仍在计划涨价。上周，韩国媒体《Elec》报道称，ASML正在该国将零部件更换价格提高10%。
Potential price increases are another focus. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said in July there’s more flexibility to adjust pricing as productivity of its EUV tools rises. Later, The Information reported that the firm is planning a price hike, despite pushbacks from TSMC. Last week, South Korean publication The Elec reported that ASML is raising prices of replacement parts in the country by 10%.
除了更多设备的销售外，定价也可以成为推动收入增长的另一个动力。分析师平均预测，明年收入将增长28%，这是在2026年收入增长34%的基础上。
Pricing can serve as another driver for revenue growth, in addition to more tools being sold. Analysts on average are forecasting a 28% increase in revenue for next year, on top of a 34% rise in 2026.
美国银行估计，ASML的利润可能随每5%的设备和服务价格增长而增加8%。由Didier Scemama领衔的分析师表示，更高的定价可能从2027年底开始起到提升利润的作用。
Bank of America estimates that ASML’s earnings will probably rise by 8% for every 5% increase in tools and servicing prices. Higher pricing could start to boost earnings toward the end of 2027, according to analysts led by Didier Scemama.
阅读：ASML股价飙升至历史高位掩盖了其相较于同行的低估值。ASML的股价按明年盈利预期计算为32倍，相较于美国上市的同行应用材料公司（Applied Materials Inc.）和拉姆研究公司（Lam Research Corp.），其溢价接近十年来的最低水平。
Read: ASML’s Surge to Record High Masks Lowball Valuation Versus Peers Trading at 32 times next year’s earnings, ASML’s premium versus US-listed peers Applied Materials Inc. and Lam Research Corp. is close to the lowest in over a decade.
据摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）交易台上周发布的一份备忘录显示，在对冲基金投资者中，该股被视为可做空以筹集资金购买其他半导体股票的目标。
Among hedge fund investors, the stock was viewed as one to short to fund purchases of other semiconductor shares, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. trading desk note published last week.
该备忘录称，要推动进一步的盈利上调，可能需要提升EUV产能、加强定价以及最终建立更乐观的中期框架。“看涨论点的很多内容如今已被广泛理解，”交易台写道。
Higher EUV capacity, stronger pricing and ultimately a more bullish medium-term framework may be necessary to drive further earnings upgrades, it said. “A lot of the bull case is now well understood,” the desk wrote.