4月，计算机芯片设备制造商ASML的首席执行官克里斯托弗·福凯向股东表示，欧洲最有价值的公司将“尽一切可能”避免成为芯片行业的瓶颈。
In April, computer chip equipment maker ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet told shareholders that Europe's most valuable company would avoid becoming the chip industry's bottleneck "by all possible means".
六个月后，福凯承认，ASML用于制造推动人工智能热潮的先进逻辑和存储芯片的芯片印刷工具的供应将在2027年和2028年均无法满足需求。
Six months later, Fouquet acknowledged ASML's supply of chip-printing tools used to make the advanced logic and memory chips powering the AI boom will fall short of demand in both 2027 and 2028.
对于客户、投资者以及今年股价已上涨近70%的ASML而言，焦点正转向该公司能否以足够快的速度提升产能，以从巨大需求中获利。与此同时，市场对人工智能热潮的持续性以及延伸至未来数年的预测感到日益担忧。
For customers, investors and ASML, whose shares have risen nearly 70% this year, the focus is shifting to whether the company can increase capacity fast enough to profit from the huge demand. At the same time, market jitters are increasing over the durability of the AI boom and forecasts that stretch years into the future.
“ASML自身如今已成为瓶颈，”持有ASML股份的财富管理公司Aureus的首席投资官汉·迪佩林克表示，并补充说，管理层正公开承认，2027年和2028年计划增加的30%产能将不足以满足需求。
"ASML itself is now the bottleneck," said Han Dieperink, chief investment officer at wealth management firm Aureus, which holds ASML shares, adding that management was openly acknowledging that planned 30% capacity additions in 2027 and in 2028 will not be enough.
迪佩林克表示，关于未来订单的讨论已经延伸至2029年和2030年，他认为这表明需求可能在当前周期之后仍将长期超过供应。
Dieperink said discussions about future orders were already extending into 2029 and 2030, which he viewed as evidence that demand could continue to outstrip supply well beyond the current cycle.
ASML为解决积压问题所采取的措施包括缩短装配时间、升级现场已在运行的机器以及推出更快速的型号。该公司原计划到2028年将年产能提升至110台价值2亿美元的EUV光刻机，但如今正考虑再增加约十台。
ASML's plans to address the backlog include shortening assembly times, upgrading machines already operating in the field and introducing faster models. It had planned to raise annual capacity to 110 of its $200 million EUV lithography machines by 2028, but is now looking at adding perhaps a dozen more.
此外，ASML正在埃因霍温扩大制造产能，尽管第一阶段预计要到2029年才能投入运行。
It is also expanding manufacturing capacity in Eindhoven, although the first phase is not expected to come online until 2029.
福凯周三向投资者保证了一点：ASML自身的供应链，包括关键光学系统供应商蔡司，并非限制因素。
Fouquet reassured investors on one point on Wednesday: ASML's own supply chain, including key optical systems supplier Zeiss, is not the limiting factor.
投资者表示，2028年之后的不确定性增加，公司的估值也反映了这一点。自6月以来，尽管金融分析师上调了盈利预期，但ASML的股价相对而言出现下跌，相对于其未来盈利而言。
Investors say uncertainties increase after 2028 and the company's valuation reflects that. Since June, even as financial analysts ratcheted up earnings estimates, ASML's stock price drifted lower on a relative basis to its future earnings.
Stonehage Fleming的投资组合经理Mark Sloan表示，其Global Best Ideas基金持有ASML 3.5%的仓位。他指出，公司的估值从6月份的超过45倍前瞻盈利下降至约30倍前瞻盈利，考虑到其增长前景和市场主导地位，这使得股票具有吸引力。
Mark Sloan, portfolio manager at Stonehage Fleming, whose Global Best Ideas fund has a 3.5% position in ASML, said a decline in the company's valuation to about 30 times forward earnings from more than 45 times in June had made the stock attractive given its growth prospects and market dominance.
他说：“我们正密切关注AI的采用和创新，以及关键客户的资本支出计划。”他补充道：“我们认为供给而非需求更可能成为ASML的关键限制因素。”ASML表示，它也将从2027年和2028年的价格上涨中受益。
"We are watching AI adoption and innovation, along with capital spending plans at key customers closely," he said. "We believe supply rather than demand is likely to remain ASML's key constraint." ASML has said it will also benefit from price increases in 2027 and 2028.
并非所有投资者都持这种观点。持怀疑态度的人质疑，对AI基础设施的支出激增是否最终能产生足以证明当前数十亿美元投资合理性的回报。
Not all investors are convinced. Sceptics question whether the surge in spending on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate returns that justify the billions of dollars being invested today.
芯片股也因担忧更高的利率可能使融资大型AI和数据中心项目变得更加困难而承压。周四，美国科技行业违约保险成本达到历史最高水平。
Chip stocks have also come under pressure from concerns that higher interest rates could make financing large AI and data-centre projects more difficult. The cost of insuring against defaults in the US technology sector hit record highs on Thursday.
Jefferies分析师Janardan Menon表示，对AI投资融资的担忧，以及数据中心扩张的限制（如电力供应），可能会对ASML造成压力。其股价在周四下跌5%，作为更广泛市场抛售的一部分。
Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon said concerns about financing AI investment, along with constraints on data-centre expansion such as power availability, could weigh on ASML. Its shares fell 5% on Thursday as part of a broader market selloff.
Menon表示：“导致此次估值下调的主要因素是对2028年和2029年非常高的预期持怀疑态度。”他补充说，ASML的市盈率在 downturn（下行周期）中可能跌至20倍以下。
"The primary factor driving this derating is scepticism about very high 2028 and 2029 expectations," said Menon, adding ASML's price-to-earnings ratio could fall into the low 20s during a downturn.
ASML的客户仍在争夺其无与伦比的高端芯片制造工具的使用权。该公司现在要求对订单支付相当数额的定金，CFO Roger Dassen表示，这些定金“足以造成损失”，如果客户后来试图取消订单的话。
ASML's customers continue to jockey for access to its unrivaled high-end chipmaking tools. The company is now demanding sizeable down payments on orders, which CFO Roger Dassen said are "enough to hurt" if customers later try to cancel.
领先的客户台积电（2330.TW）为英伟达（NVDA.O）和苹果（AAPL.O）生产芯片，该公司在7月表示，它不认为设备供应会限制其扩张计划。周四，它维持了2026年资本支出计划为600亿至640亿美元。
Top customer TSMC (2330.TW), which makes chips for Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Apple (AAPL.O), said in July it did not expect equipment supply to constrain its expansion plans. It maintained 2026 capital spending plans of $60 billion to $64 billion on Thursday.
三星（005930.KS）、SK海力士（000660.KS）和美光（MU.O）也一直在预订ASML的产能，因为对AI内存芯片的需求强劲。
Samsung (005930.KS), SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Micron (MU.O) have also been booking ASML capacity amid strong demand for AI memory chips.
潜在的新客户可能会进一步增加压力。埃隆·马斯克提出的TeraFab项目尚未生产出第一颗芯片，但可能成为先进工具的重要买家，而美国对中国的限制仍然是ASML中程DUV工具销售的风险。预计中国今年将占ASML销售额的约20%。
Potential new customers could add further pressure. Elon Musk's proposed TeraFab project, which has yet to produce its first chip, could emerge as a significant buyer of advanced tools, while US restrictions on China remain a risk for sales of ASML's mid-range DUV tools. China is expected to account for about 20% of ASML's sales this year.
尽管需求强劲，ASML仍在推迟接受2029年和2030年的订单，同时评估客户的准备情况以及自身满足未来需求的能力。
Despite strong demand, ASML is holding off on accepting orders for 2029 and 2030 while it assesses both customers' readiness and its own ability to meet future demand.
“我们不想现在就接受客户A、B和C的订单，然后告诉尚未为2029年和2030年下单的客户D，抱歉，我们已经售罄，”达森在财报电话会议后对分析师说。
"We don't want now to accept orders from customer A, B, and C and then to tell customer D, who hasn't given orders yet for 2029 and 2030, sorry, we're sold out," Dassen told analysts on the post-earnings call.