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ASML表示无法满足2027年或2028年的芯片制造设备需求ASML says it cannot meet chip tool demand in 2027 or 2028

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阿斯麦航空货运集装箱在台南,2025年5月 图片来源:4300streetcarASML air freight containers in Tainan, May 2025 Credit: 4300streetcar

ASML表示,其供应计划意味着它无法完全满足2027年或2028年的需求,一些客户甚至希望下单预订2029年和2030年的产品。该公司上调了2026年销售预期指引的下限,其股价上涨了2.8%。

ASML says its supply plans mean it cannot fully meet demand in 2027 or 2028, and some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030. It raised the low end of its 2026 sales guidance and its shares rose 2.8%.

ASML表示,将无法满足2027年或2028年对其机器设备的需求。该公司正在寻找扩大产能的方法。

ASML says it will not be able to meet demand for its machines in 2027 or 2028. It is looking for ways to build more.

据彭博社报道,这家荷兰公司上调了2026年销售预期指引的下限,将目标区间调整为440亿欧元至450亿欧元,其在阿姆斯特丹的股价上涨了2.8%,达到1551.60欧元。

The Dutch company raised the low end of its 2026 sales guidance, taking the range to between €44B and €45B, Bloomberg reported, and its shares rose 2.8% to €1,551.60 in Amsterdam.

该公司在7月份曾表示,将在2027年把产能提高30%,并正在研究在2028年再提高30%。首席执行官克里斯托夫·富凯现在表示,公司正在研究超越这一幅度的增产方案。

In July it said it would add 30% more capacity for 2027 and was studying a further 30% for 2028. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet now says it is investigating going beyond that.

富凯说,客户每天都在要求更多的设备。一些客户甚至表达了订购2029年乃至2030年产品的意愿。

Customers are asking every single day for more tools, Fouquet said. Some are expressing an interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030.

在这个节骨眼上说出这番话显得有些尴尬。在博通首席执行官将投资者情绪比作赌场之后,芯片股遭到抛售,首尔股市盘中一度下跌7%。

That is an awkward week to say it. Chip stocks sold off after Broadcom’s chief executive compared investor sentiment to a casino, and Seoul fell 7% intraday.

ASML是支撑这一论点的最有力证据。其最先进的设备从订购到交付需要一年多的时间,因此其订单簿记录的是芯片制造商已经承诺的投入,而不是他们的空谈。

ASML is the hardest evidence in that argument. Its most advanced tools take more than a year between order and delivery, so its book is a record of what chipmakers have already committed to rather than what they say.

这些财务警告关乎其他方面。国际货币基金组织本周将该行业的循环融资称为逆向风险,因为一旦承诺的收入落空,投资就会变质。

The financial warnings are about something else. The IMF called the sector’s circular financing wrong-way risk this week, because the investment sours when the promised revenue does.

光刻机的订单并不是收入的承诺。它是向唯一一家生产该设备的制造商购买实体物品。

An order for a lithography machine is not a revenue promise. It is a purchase of a physical object from the only company that makes it.

这种垄断地位使ASML成为欧洲市值最高的公司。今年其股价已上涨64%,在7月份时,其市值距离1万亿美元还差约3000亿美元。

That monopoly has made ASML Europe’s most valuable company. Its shares are up 64% this year, and it was about $300B short of a trillion in July.

涨幅大多出现在前期。到7月中旬,该股票已上涨约60%,因此在整个秋季基本持平。

Most of the rise came early. The stock was up about 60% by mid-July, so it has been close to flat through the autumn.

它在其本土也依然是个特例。欧洲三年来最好的财报季度是一个关于能源的故事,而不是人工智能的故事。

It also remains an exception at home. Europe’s best earnings quarter in three years was an energy story, not an AI one.

定价也发生了变化。ASML已与核心客户完成了价格洽谈,其影响将在2027年部分显现,并在2028年全面体现,而中国市场仍占今年收入的大约五分之一。

Pricing has moved too. ASML has completed price conversations with key customers, with the effect visible partly through 2027 and fully from 2028, and China remains about a fifth of this year’s revenue.

第二个荷兰园区正在建设中,第一阶段预计于2029年完工。这就是客户现在要求其报价的时间范围。

A second Dutch campus is under construction, with the first phase due in 2029. That is the horizon customers are now asking it to quote for.