德黑兰试图摧毁以色列的行动不仅让那些本应得到帮助的民众陷入苦难，反而壮大了以色列的右翼势力。
Tehran’s campaign to destroy Israel has immiserated the people it purported to help and strengthened the Israeli right.
作者：卡里姆·萨贾德普尔。2023年10月7日哈马斯对以色列发动袭击后不久，全球仅有一位领导人公开对此表示祝贺。时任伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊写道：“愿真主保佑，这个篡权的犹太复国主义政权这个‘毒瘤’终将被根除。”三年过去了，伊朗政权所称的“抵抗运动”成果却惨淡不堪：加沙地带沦为一片废墟；哈马斯高层领导几乎全部丧生；真主党也遭受重创；巴沙尔·阿萨德则逃往莫斯科。
By Karim Sadjadpour In the hours after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, only one world leader publicly celebrated it. “God willing,” wrote Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s then–supreme leader, “the cancer of the usurper Zionist regime will be eradicated.”Three years later, the balance sheet of what the Iranian regime calls “resistance” looks grim. Gaza lies in ruins. Hamas’s senior leadership is dead.
伊朗仍在与以色列及美国进行两场战争中的第二场——这场代价高昂且毫无胜算的冲突或许永远无法为美国带来任何回报，而德黑兰也远未成为赢家。这两场战争摧毁了伊朗大部分军事力量，重创了其经济，甚至连哈梅内伊本人也未能幸免。
Hezbollah has been decapitated. Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow. Iran is still fighting the second of two wars with Israel and the United States—a misbegotten conflict whose enormous costs to the U.S. may never be vindicated, but in which Tehran has hardly emerged a winner. The two wars have destroyed much of Iran’s military, crippled its economy, and killed Khamenei himself.
然而，本雅明·内塔尼亚胡依然执掌以色列大权。那些德黑兰所谓的“抵抗轴心”本想帮助的民众却付出了最惨重的代价：据估计，已有约7.4万名巴勒斯坦人丧生。纵观伊朗近半个世纪以来针对以色列的行动，一个结论显而易见：这些行动给巴勒斯坦人、阿拉伯人以及伊朗民众带来的苦难远远超过以色列人。而最大的政治受益者，正是以色列的右翼势力。
Yet Benjamin Netanyahu still governs Israel. And the very people Tehran’s Axis of Resistance ostensibly set out to help have paid the highest cost of all: An estimated 74,000 Palestinians have been killed. A net assessment of the Islamic Republic’s nearly half-century campaign against Israel yields an inescapable conclusion. It has inflicted far more suffering on Palestinians, Arabs, and Iranians than on Israelis. And its chief political beneficiary has been the Israeli right.
三代人以来，摧毁以色列的事业比建设巴勒斯坦的事业更容易获得独裁者、民兵组织和运动的支持。反对以色列并不等同于支持巴勒斯坦。事实上，它常常恰好相反。萨达姆·侯赛因向自杀式炸弹袭击者的家人发放支票。穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲驱逐了数千名来自利比亚的巴勒斯坦工人，以抗议奥斯陆协议。巴沙尔·阿萨德在亚尔穆克让巴勒斯坦人挨饿。
For three generations, the cause of destroying Israel has attracted the support of dictators, militias, and movements far more readily than the cause of building Palestine. Being anti-Israel is not the same as being pro-Palestine. Too often, it has been the opposite. Saddam Hussein sent checks to the families of suicide bombers. Muammar Qaddafi expelled thousands of Palestinian workers from Libya to protest the Oslo Accords. Bashar al-Assad starved Palestinians in Yarmouk.
德黑兰的官方口号一直是“以色列必须灭亡”——从未说过“巴勒斯坦万岁”。十多年前，在列支敦士登的一次轨道二外交会议上，一名伊朗官员对我坦率地阐述了他政府对该地区的愿景。他抱怨美国的军国主义。我问他，德黑兰在武装黎巴嫩真主党、哈马斯和巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战上花费的数十亿美元，如果用于培训数万名巴勒斯坦人和黎巴嫩人成为医生、律师和工程师，是否能更有效地推进巴勒斯坦事业？
Tehran’s official chant has always been “Death to Israel”—never “Long Live Palestine.”More than a decade ago, at a Track II diplomacy meeting in Liechtenstein, an Iranian official explained his government’s vision for the region to me with unusual candor. He complained about U.S. militarism. I asked him, in turn, whether the billions of dollars Tehran had spent arming Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad might have better advanced the Palestinian cause had it been used to train tens of thousands of Palestinians and Lebanese to become doctors, lawyers, and engineers.
他淡定地回答：“这对我们有什么好处？你认为如果我们派他们出国去成为医生、律师和教授，他们会返回南黎巴嫩和加沙去与以色列作战吗？”他自己拥有英国的博士学位。但他明白，他政府对该地区的议程依赖于混乱、苦难以及社会流动性的缺失。
“What good would that have done for us?” he responded matter-of-factly. “Do you think if we sent them abroad to become doctors, lawyers, and professors, they would return to southern Lebanon and Gaza to fight Israel?”He himself had a doctorate from the U.K. But he understood that his government’s agenda for the region depended on chaos, misery, and the absence of social mobility.
伊朗与以色列之间的冲突既不是古老的，也不是自然的。与以色列和巴勒斯坦、俄罗斯和乌克兰、中国和台湾不同，伊朗和以色列没有共同的边界，没有直接的领土争端，也没有资源上的竞争。二十五个世纪前，波斯国王居鲁士大帝释放了被巴比伦俘虏的犹太人，希伯来圣经称他为上帝的受膏者。在革命之前的几十年里，这两个国家一直是安静的伙伴。
The conflict between Iran and Israel is neither ancient nor natural. Unlike Israel and Palestine, or Russia and Ukraine, or China and Taiwan, Iran and Israel have no border, no direct land dispute, and no competition over resources. Twenty-five centuries ago, the Persian king Cyrus the Great freed the Jews from Babylonian captivity, and the Hebrew Bible calls him God’s anointed. For decades before the revolution, the two countries were quiet partners.
1979 年，伊朗转变为革命伊斯兰神权国家，一切由此改变。该国由激进神职人员、阿亚图拉·鲁霍拉·霍梅尼领导，他毫不掩饰自己的反犹太主义。霍梅尼于 1970 年发表的论著《伊斯兰政府》是伊斯兰共和国宪法的蓝图，文中充斥着对“可怜”和“撒旦式”犹太人的斥责和威胁。
All this changed in 1979, when Iran transformed into a revolutionary Islamist theocracy, led by a militant cleric, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who made no secret of his anti-Semitism. Khomeini’s 1970 treatise, “Islamic Government,” the blueprint for the Islamic Republic’s constitution, is laced with tirades and threats against “wretched” and “satanic” Jews.
他写道：“我们必须抗议，并让人民意识到犹太人及其海外支持者反对伊斯兰的根基，并希望在全球范围内建立犹太人的统治。”“由于他们是狡猾且富有资源的一群人，我担心——但愿上天保佑——他们有一天可能实现这一目标，而我们中一些人的冷漠可能会让犹太人有一天统治我们。”该文几乎公开支持种族清洗。霍梅尼写道：“伊斯兰教已经根除了一些对人类社会造成腐败和危害的群体”，他引用了先知穆罕默德在麦地那“消灭”一个“麻烦”的犹太部落的例子。
“We must protest and make the people aware that the Jews and their foreign backers are opposed to the very foundations of Islam and wish to establish Jewish domination throughout the world,” Khomeini wrote. “Since they are a cunning and resourceful group of people, I fear that—God forbid—they may one day achieve their goal, and that the apathy shown by some of us may allow a Jew to rule over us one day.”The same text all but endorses ethnic cleansing. “Islam,” Khomeini wrote, “has rooted out numerous groups that were a source of corruption and harm to human society,” citing the Prophet Mohammed’s “elimination” of a “troublesome” Jewish tribe in Medina.
霍梅尼的继任者哈梅内伊也持有这些观点。他在担任最高领袖的四十年里，几乎每一次重要演讲都以对以色列的仇恨为基础，并用伊朗数十亿美元的资源来支撑他的言论。在哈梅内伊的领导下，伊斯兰共和国在该地区投资了腐败和压迫性的民兵组织，其中一些卷入了非法毒品贸易和海盗行为，即使他们宣称自己正在为巴勒斯坦人伸张正义。
Khomeini’s successor, Khamenei, shared these views. Virtually every major speech he gave over his four-decade tenure as supreme leader drew on his hatred for Israel, and he backed his words with tens of billions of dollars in Iranian resources. Under Khamenei, the Islamic Republic invested in corrupt, repressive militias throughout the region, some of which have been involved in the illicit drug trade and piracy, even while pledging that they were seeking justice for Palestinians.
哈梅内伊曾说：“我们将支持和协助世界上任何国家或任何团体，只要它们反对和对抗锡安主义政权。”许多巴勒斯坦人已经认识到，这意味着德黑兰准备以最后一个巴勒斯坦人的代价与以色列作战。巴勒斯坦权力机构总统马哈茂德·阿巴斯的办公室——哈马斯的对手——表示，哈梅内伊的“目标是牺牲巴勒斯坦人的血液和数千名儿童、妇女和老年人的生命，并摧毁巴勒斯坦的土地”。
“We will support and assist any nation or any group anywhere,” Khamenei once said, “who opposes and fights the Zionist regime.”Many Palestinians have come to recognize that this means Tehran is prepared to fight Israel down to the last Palestinian. The office of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas—a rival to Hamas—has said that Khamenei’s “goal is to sacrifice Palestinian blood and thousands of children, women, and the elderly, and to destroy Palestinian land.”
在2024年的一项民意调查中，只有28%的受访巴勒斯坦人对伊朗持“有利好感”的看法；巴勒斯坦政策与调查研究中心在2025年5月进行的一项调查发现，54%的巴勒斯坦人认为伊朗的作用对巴勒斯坦事业有害，而仅有32%的人认为其有益。
In a 2024 public opinion poll, only 28 percent of Palestinian surveyed held a “favorable” view of Iran; a May 2025 poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 54 percent of Palestinians believed that Iran’s role was harmful to the Palestinian cause, compared with just 32 percent who considered it beneficial.
批评以色列和美国对伊朗军事行动的人经常说，使用武力会强化伊朗的强硬派，他们依赖不安全感而生存。较少被注意到的是相反的情况：德黑兰的威胁强化了以色列的强硬派。事实上，当以色列人和巴勒斯坦人追求和平时——无论是1990年代的马德里和奥斯陆，还是多年后的大卫营和安纳波利斯——德黑兰都支持武装团体，决心破坏和平进程。
Critics of Israeli and American military action against Iran have frequently said that the use of force strengthens Iran’s hard-liners, who thrive on insecurity. Less noticed is the reverse: Tehran’s threats have strengthened Israeli hard-liners. Indeed, when Israelis and Palestinians have pursued peace—whether in Madrid and Oslo in the 1990s, or in Camp David and Annapolis years later—Tehran supported armed groups determined to derail it.
伊朗对以色列的战争中，最大的政治赢家可以说是本雅明·内塔尼亚胡：1996年，伊朗支持的哈马斯和伊斯兰圣战组织发动的自杀式炸弹袭击浪潮帮助他首次上台。他以不到3万票的微弱优势击败了现任总理西蒙·佩雷斯——奥斯陆和平进程的缔造者，当时他正在与巴勒斯坦人进行谈判解决。佩雷斯在选举前夕警告说：“真正危及选举胜利的，不是内塔尼亚胡，而是伊朗和伊斯兰原教旨主义。”
The greatest political winner of Iran’s war against Israel has arguably been Benjamin Netanyahu: In 1996, a wave of suicide bombings by Iranian-backed Hamas and Islamic Jihad helped bring him to power for the first time. He defeated the incumbent prime minister, Shimon Peres—an architect of the Oslo peace process who was pursuing a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians—by fewer than 30,000 votes. “What really endangered election victory,” Peres warned on the eve of the election, “was not Netanyahu but Iran and Islamic fundamentalism.”
接下来的三十年里，德黑兰的核野心、大屠杀否认、对以色列的威胁以及地区民兵组织为内塔尼亚胡提供了理想的对手。他警告说：“现在是1938年，伊朗就是德国。”“伊朗正在竞相武装自己，拥有原子弹。”德黑兰帮助内塔尼亚胡激发以色列人的恐惧，转移对巴勒斯坦问题的注意力，并说服那些害怕伊朗的阿拉伯政府在未实现巴勒斯坦国建国的情况下，与以色列实现正常化。
For the next three decades, Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, Holocaust denial, threats against Israel, and regional militias provided Netanyahu with an ideal foil. “It’s 1938 and Iran is Germany,” he warned. “Iran is racing to arm itself with atomic bombs.”Tehran helped Netanyahu stoke Israeli fears, divert attention from the Palestinian question, and persuade Arab governments fearful of Iran toward normalization with Israel without securing Palestinian statehood.
德黑兰和内塔尼亚胡在许多问题上意见不一。但伊斯兰共和国帮助使内塔尼亚胡成为以色列历史上任期最长的总理，在此过程中削弱了它自身声称要捍卫的巴勒斯坦独立。伊朗是世界上少数几个其废除另一个国家的愿望超过了对自身国家发展野心的政府之一。
Tehran and Netanyahu agree on little. But the Islamic Republic has helped make Netanyahu the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, and in doing so has undercut the very Palestinian independence it claims to champion. Iran has one of the few governments in the world whose aspiration to abolish another state has eclipsed its ambition for its own country.
政策应根据其结果而非口号来评判。近五十年来的“消灭以色列”口号加深了巴勒斯坦人的苦难，使伊朗——一个在人力和自然资源方面富饶的国家——陷入持续冲突、孤立和人才流失之中。一个明智的政府会进行自我反思。但德黑兰的革命独裁政权只会加倍下注。
Policies should be judged by their outcomes, not their slogans. Nearly five decades of “Death to Israel” have deepened Palestinian suffering and left Iran—a nation rich in human and natural resources—mired in chronic conflict, isolation, and brain drain. A wise government would take stock. Tehran’s revolutionary dictatorship will double down.