Zambia trimmed its growth forecasts for the next two years due to the mounting economic threat that El Niño poses to the copper-rich nation, as well as the prolonged impact of the Iran war.

The economy will expand by 4.9% in 2027 and 5% the following year, Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said in an interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Tuesday. That compares to a Sept. 26 forecast of 6% for next year and 7.5% for 2028.

While the developing El Niño could be the most severe in decades, Musokotwane said Zambia is better prepared than when the weather event last wreaked havoc on its economy in 2024.

Back then, it decimated the southern African nation’s staple corn crop. It also trigger two years of power outages, at times lasting entire days, as drought choked hydropower dams.

Now, Zambia enters the main crop-growing period next month with a record level of strategic corn stocks after this year’s bumper harvest. The nation has also added a significant amount of solar power capacity, reducing its hydroelectric dependence.

Still, the prolonged impact of the Iran war on fuel prices and lower agricultural output will dent economic growth next year, and the government downgraded its expectations during talks with the IMF for a new program.

The authorities and the Washington-based lender reached a staff-level agreement last week and aim to get executive board approval to unlock the first tranche of the $1.5 billion program as soon as December.

To do so, Zambia agreed prior actions, including making changes to the method of appointing the head of the Anti-Corruption Commission and awarding a public tender for diesel pipeline imports by December, Musokotwane said.