for countering a Russian attack on members of the alliance, embedding lessons learned from the front lines in Ukraine.

Speaking about NATO’s so-called “theory of victory” at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday, General Alexus Grynkewich, who has served as head of United States European Command and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe since 2025, said the plan rests on three strategies designed to stop an invasion in its tracks: “block, blunt and break”.

The announcement comes amid mounting warnings from European intelligence agencies of rising threats from Russia, including both the prospect of conventional military action and “hybrid warfare”, which can include tactics from cyberattacks to tampering with undersea cables.

In a bid to ease the alliance’s growing concerns, Grynkewich said: “What I want to do is assure the one billion citizens of our alliance that we’ve got this. We know what we need to do. We know how we would do it.”But the new plan from NATO comes at a time when the alliance itself appears divided on how to deal with Russia, following a series of recent overtures from US President Donald Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin, including his latest controversial plan for Russia to release stocks of diesel to global markets despite sanctions on Russian oil.

So, what’s in the new NATO plan, and what are European agencies warning about? How has Russia reacted? And is the alliance even on the same page on all of this?

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), US General Alexus Grynkewich, speaks during the opening session of the Warsaw Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland on October 12, 2026 [Wojtek Radwanski/AFP] What’s in the new NATO plan?

General Grynkewich told the Warsaw Security Forum that NATO does not view a military confrontation with Russia as “imminent or inevitable”, but that it will nevertheless be ready for one.

“Implementing the theory of victory I’ve described today would require me to issue orders that I hope to never give,” he said. “But let there be no doubt: should war come, we will block, blunt any attack, and then if it does not cease, we will break the forces conducting aggression against us.”The “block, blunt and break” strategy, he explained, is aimed at stopping an attack rather than taking enemy territory.

Drawing directly on lessons learned on the front lines in Ukraine and from conflict in the Middle East, Grynkewich said the plan relies on the use of precision weapons with “affordable mass”, like drones, and other autonomous systems.

In the plan, he said, the alliance’s forces would “block” an attack at the border to halt enemy advances on the battlefield, then “blunt” the attack by hitting incoming troops from the air, sea, and land. Then, at last, they would aim to “break” the enemy by targeting the supply chain and command networks.

“If required, we will break the enemy’s forces and the operational warfighting system that is arrayed against us,” he said. “Enemy formations will be starved of replenishment. Enemy commanders will be unable to control their forces. Enemy forces and support capabilities will be reduced and destroyed.”A firefighter extinguishes a fire in private houses following a Russian guided aerial bomb attack that killed one person, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in Kharkiv on October 11, 2026 [Sergey Bobok/AFP] Are Russian threats in Europe on the rise?

Germany’s foreign intelligence chief, Martin Jaeger, warned last week that the country risked being drawn into a “violent conflict” with Russia, saying Moscow increasingly viewed Berlin as a principal adversary.

He cited an attempted drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport in August as an example of the escalating threat. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has also warned of a Russian-linked “shadow war” involving sabotage, cyberattacks and other covert operations.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron warned last month that the Russian hybrid threat facing France and other European countries had intensified in recent weeks, and ordered the preparation of plans to protect critical infrastructure.

The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said that he had received confirmation upon entering office that Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum although he did not publicly detail the evidence behind that assessment. Last week, he travelled to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in part to discuss plans to combat Russian hybrid warfare.

Russia issued a nuclear warning to NATO late last month, saying it was prepared to use its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if the alliance attempted to isolate Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania.

In July, Romania’s Defence Ministry said it had recorded 33 instances of Russian drones entering its airspace since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Eighteen of those incursions had occurred this year, and Romanian F-16 fighter jets had shot down three drones during the year.

Poland has also accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating an arson attack on a Starlink satellite-internet station in Wola Krobowska last month. Warsaw described the incident as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against countries supporting Ukraine.

Norway, too, has issued similar warnings. Beate Gangas, head of the country’s Police Security Service, said this week that Europe is facing its most serious security situation since World War II, echoing concerns over suspected Russian sabotage and covert operations across the continent. What has Russia said?

In August, Russia warned the UK that it could face “consequences” for supplying drones to Ukraine that have been used in long-range attacks inside Russian territory.

“London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer,” the Russian embassy in London said in a statement on August 17. “The deeper its involvement in the conflict and the greater its support for Kyiv’s terrorist machinery, the higher the price it will pay.”Despite this, Russia is not preparing for “any kind” of conflict with Europe, President Vladimir Putin said last month. He added that Russia had “no real motive” to escalate tensions and criticised European countries that have suggested otherwise.

“Many in Europe talk about expecting an attack from Russia and therefore believe they must themselves prepare for hostilities, for a war with Russia,” Putin told reporters in St Petersburg.

“I want to emphasise once again: we are not preparing for any kind of hostilities with Europe,” he noted.

Putin added that Russia was considering its stance on whether to resume peace talks with Ukraine following recent Ukrainian attacks on Russia, particularly on energy infrastructure.

“On proposals to resume negotiations, yes, they are all on the table, and it is all possible. But after everything they’ve done, we will give careful thought to what steps we need to take in response,” Putin said. Is NATO united?

Since taking presidential office in the US, Trump has repeatedly attacked other NATO members for not shouldering enough of the financial burden for defence. He has also been angered by NATO members’ general refusal to join in the US-Israel war on Iran.

As a result, there are fears that Trump cannot be relied on to provide support if it is needed within the NATO alliance, analysts say.

In August, after the Russian consulate in London warned of “consequences” for the UK for providing Ukraine with long-range drones, former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Fedorov told the BBC that could include the possibility of attacks. He said many of the military experts currently advising the Kremlin are “convinced” that NATO would not respond forcefully if Russia were to hit the UK. “Trump will not allow NATO to answer,” he said.

The alliance is facing a deepening divide over Russia, as Trump pursues engagement with Moscow while European governments insist that Russia must remain under pressure if the war in Ukraine is to come to an end.

Last month, Washington invited Putin to December’s Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, in a move that was seen as potentially ending Moscow’s diplomatic isolation since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The European Union responded that Russia remained a G20 member but said it would continue condemning the invasion regardless of whether Putin attended.

The divide deepened last week when Trump announced a deal allowing Russian diesel exports into US and global markets, temporarily easing sanctions on Russian fuel. His administration said the move could help lower energy prices and encourage Putin to return to peace negotiations.

Critics have warned that it would generate revenue for Russia while undermining Western efforts to constrain its war effort.

Meanwhile, Trump has also escalated his criticism of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and suggested that Ukraine should elect a new leader willing to make a deal with Russia. Zelenskyy had called Trump’s diesel agreement with Putin “not fair and not honest”, arguing it would benefit Russia.

EU foreign ministers also insisted that European sanctions against Russia would remain in place despite Washington’s deal with Moscow.

On Sunday, Trump claimed in a Truth Social post to have instigated an “energy truce” between Russia and Ukraine, under which both sides would refrain from targeting each other’s energy facilities with long-range strikes. However, Zelenskyy said such a deal was “news to me” – although he also said Ukraine would respect such a truce if Moscow honoured it as well. Regardless, Russia, which also has not confirmed agreeing to an energy truce, continued striking Ukraine’s facilities on Monday, according to Ukrainian officials.