亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥警告称，随着政府和企业借款激增，而世界上一些最大的传统买家需求减弱，美国债券抛售远未结束。
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning that the US bond selloff is far from over as surging government and corporate borrowing collides with weakening demand from some of the world’s biggest traditional buyers.
在周二的领英帖子中，桥水基金创始人表示，美国正进入一个阶段，债券供应扩大推高收益率，提高借贷成本，进一步增加债务水平。他表示，这种螺旋式上升不太可能结束，除非更高的利率削弱经济和金融市场到足以使供需重新平衡的程度。他写道：“债券熊市可能还有很长的路要走。”
In a LinkedIn post Tuesday, the Bridgewater Associates founder said the US is entering a phase where an expanding supply of bonds drives up yields, raising borrowing costs and increasing the debt level even further. That spiral is unlikely to end until higher rates weaken the economy and financial markets enough to bring supply and demand back into balance, he said. “The bond bear market probably has a long way to go,” Dalio wrote.
达利奥长期警告美国即将爆发债务危机，并主张投资者抛售债券、购买黄金。他的看跌立场与一些投资者和策略师形成对比，包括贝莱德公司和摩根士丹利投资管理部门的策略师，他们在本月10年期美国国债收益率升至近四分之一世纪最高水平（接近5.4%）后转为看涨。
Dalio has long warned of a looming US debt crisis and advocated investors to sell bonds and buy gold. His bearish stance contrasts with some investors and strategists, including those at BlackRock Inc. and Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who have turned bullish after 10-year Treasury yields surged to the highest in nearly a quarter century this month, approaching 5.4%.
这一争论正值债券承受严峻考验的一年。彭博追踪美国国债的指数因能源价格上涨和经济韧性促使美联储加息而下跌约2.4%，同时政府和企业借款激增加剧了压力。美国国债有望出现自2022年以来的首次年度下跌，当年因美联储激进加息以遏制通胀而暴跌12.5%。
The debate comes during a punishing year for bonds. A Bloomberg index tracking US Treasuries has lost about 2.4% as rising energy prices and a resilient economy prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, while a deluge of government and corporate borrowing added to the pressure. Treasuries are on track for their first annual decline since 2022, when they tumbled 12.5% as the Fed hiked rates aggressively to tame inflation.
达利奥估计，美国债务负担——以总借款和债务服务成本相对于政府收入来衡量——已达到自二战以来的最高水平，且在未来几年将进一步恶化。
Dalio estimates the US debt burden, measured by total borrowings and bond-service costs relative to government revenue, has reached the highest since World War II and is set to worsen in coming years.
根据达利奥的说法，政府预计今年将展期约10万亿美元到期义务，同时新增2.1万亿美元借款。他警告称，随着如此多的债务到期，即使投资者愿意再投资所得款项的意愿出现 modest 下降，也可能造成显著的资金缺口。
The government is expected to roll over about $10 trillion of maturing obligations this year while adding $2.1 trillion of new borrowing, according to Dalio. With so much coming due, even a modest decline in investors’ willingness to reinvest the proceeds could create a significant funding gap, he warned.
一些国家最大的外国债权人，包括中国和日本，其需求可能会减弱，这是令人担忧的。例如，日本政策制定者有动力鼓励国内投资者减少其持有的1.1万亿美元美国国债，并将资本汇回国内以支撑日元和当地债券市场，达利奥表示。日元收益率上升将鼓励这种转变，他补充道。
The concern is that the appetite of some of the country’s largest foreign creditors, including China and Japan, may diminish. Japanese policy makers, for example, have an incentive to encourage domestic investors to reduce their $1.1 trillion of US Treasuries holdings and repatriate capital to support the yen and the local bond market, Dalio said. Rising Japanese yields would encourage that shift, he added.
财政部也面临着来自企业的资本竞争加剧，因为企业正在发行更多债务和股权以融资人工智能建设。达利奥指出，投资者开始要求更大的“让步以吸收供应”的迹象，他将企业信贷市场称为“煤矿中的金丝雀”。他写道：“把这些加起来，新债务供应的预期变化及其需求长期以来一直使得 — 并且仍然使得 — 做空美国国债比做多更容易。”
The Treasury is also facing increasing competition for capital from corporations, which are selling more debt and equity to finance the artificial-intelligence buildout. Dalio pointed to signs that investors are beginning to demand larger “concessions to absorb the supply,” calling the corporate credit market the “canary in the coal mine.”“Adding all this up, the expected changes in supply of new debt and the demand for it have for a long time made it — and still make it — easier to be short than long US Treasuries,” Dalio wrote.