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雷·达里奥警告称,股市抵御债券收益率上升的缓冲空间正在缩小Ray Dalio warns the stock market's cushion against rising bond yields is shrinking

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亿万富翁投资者雷·达里奥周四警告称,尽管企业盈利仍在持续增长,但股票正面临债券收益率上升以及企业现金流可能减弱的双重压力。

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned on Thursday that stocks face mounting pressure from rising bond yields and the prospect of weaker corporate cash flows, even as earnings continue to grow.

桥水基金创始人向CNBC表示,迄今为止,股票之所以能够抵御全球债券市场的抛售潮,是因为盈利增长使得股票的预期回报率相对于债券仍然具有吸引力。但他指出,这种优势正在缩小,随着金融环境收紧,股票可能会变得更加脆弱。

The Bridgewater Associates founder told CNBC equities have so far weathered the global bond sell-off because earnings growth has kept expected stock returns attractive, relative to bonds. But that advantage will narrow, he said, potentially leaving equities more vulnerable as financial conditions tighten.

达里奥周四在新加坡米尔肯研究所亚洲峰会上接受CNBC记者斯里·杰加拉贾采访时表示:“我们目前处于经济周期的一个阶段,利率可以上升而不会导致股市下跌,因为盈利增长和预期回报都足够强劲。”

"We're in the part of the cycle where interest rates can rise without sending the equity market down because there's enough earnings growth and there's enough expected return," Dalio told CNBC's Sri Jegarajah at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore on Thursday.

“但当这种缓冲减弱时,就说明我们已深入到了这个周期的后期。我们现在就处于这个位置。”他的警告发布之际,美国国债收益率正徘徊在数十年来高位附近。投资者正面临巨额政府赤字、持续通胀以及与人工智能投资相关的借贷成本上升等问题。

"But when that cushion comes down, then you're coming later into that cycle. So that's where we are." His warning comes as U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-decade highs. Investors are grappling with large government deficits, persistent inflation and rising borrowing tied to AI investment.

达里奥表示,本轮周期开始时,股票的预期回报率明显高于债券,这有助于在借贷成本上升的情况下维持对股票的需求。

Dalio said that equities entered the current cycle offering significantly higher expected returns than bonds, helping sustain demand for stocks even as borrowing costs rose.

然而,随着股价上涨和债券收益率提高,这种相对优势正在减弱,留给股票承受更高利率的空间也越来越小。

But as stock prices climb and bond yields increase, that relative advantage is diminishing, leaving less room for equities to absorb higher rates.

他说道:“由于定价结构的变化,这种缓冲已经减弱,因此现在你开始看到信用利差开始扩大。”

"Because of that change in pricing, that cushion has come down, and so now you're starting to see credit spreads start to widen," he said.

盈利与现金流方面,达里奥还警告称,尽管企业表面盈利持续改善,但投资者可能忽视了企业现金流恶化所带来的风险。

Earnings versus cash flows Dalio also cautioned that investors may be overlooking the risk of deteriorating corporate cash generation, even as headline earnings continue to improve.

当被问及企业是否能在第三季度维持强劲盈利增长时,达里奥表示,投资者应关注自由现金流,而不仅仅是盈利本身。

Asked whether companies could sustain strong profit growth in the third quarter, Dalio said investors should focus on free cash flow rather than earnings alone.

“我认为你必须关注自由现金流……而不仅仅是盈利。因为如果企业有盈利,但同时又在进行投资,却没有从中获得现金回流,那么流动性问题就会逐渐显现,”他说道。

"I think you have to pay attention to free cash flows ... Not just earnings. Because if you're earning and then you're investing and you're not getting money out of that, you have a liquidity issue that's evolving," he said.

“虽然盈利应该会继续改善,但我预计自由现金流可能会恶化。”达利欧并未直接预测盈利会下降或股市即将出现调整。他表示,金融环境尚未收紧到足以显著抑制信贷和支出的程度。

"While earnings should continue to be improving, I would expect the free cash flows, I think, will be deteriorating." Dalio stopped short of predicting an earnings decline or an imminent stock market correction. He said financial conditions have not yet tightened enough to significantly curb credit and spending.

达利欧还表示,全球债券市场的抛售潮可能还会持续,因为各国政府和企业都在争夺资本,而不断增长的债务发行正在给投资者需求带来压力。

Bond rout has further to run Dalio also said he expected the global bond sell-off to continue as governments and companies compete for capital, as mounting debt issuance puts pressure on investor demand.

各国政府正在大量举债以弥补财政赤字,而企业则在筹集资金用于投资新兴技术,这种失衡可能继续对利率形成上行压力。

Governments are borrowing heavily to finance fiscal deficits, while companies are raising funds to invest in emerging technologies, creating an imbalance that could keep upward pressure on interest rates.

“我们目前处于债券熊市,这一点我认为相当明确,而且我猜测市场可能还会进一步下跌,”他说道。

"We are in a bond bear market, that's I think, pretty clear, and I think that there's more to go would be my guess," he said.

达利欧指出,更高的借贷成本最终将迫使信贷和支出减少,从而拖累经济活动,并可能波及股票市场。

Higher borrowing costs will eventually force a reduction in credit and spending, weighing on economic activity and potentially spilling over into equity markets, Dalio said.

不过,达利欧表示,目前紧缩过程才刚刚开始,尽管信贷条件已开始走弱,但盈利增长仍在为股市提供支撑。

For now, Dalio said the tightening process is only beginning, with earnings growth still providing support for stocks even as credit conditions start to weaken.