亿万富翁达瑞•达尔欧并不陌生于预测泡沫或危机，他看到了另一场风暴在地平线上酝酿。桥水联合投资公司的创始人表示，全球债务的供求失衡，将在“未来两年内的某个时候”演变成危机。他在周二的年度格林威治经济论坛上的一次虚拟访谈中表示，长期投资者正看空债务，因为政府和大型科技公司正向市场投放大量债券，而机构买家如中国和日本正在撤退。
Billionaire Ray Dalio is no stranger to predicting bubbles or crises, and he sees another storm brewing on the horizon. The founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates said the supply and demand for debt in the world is out of balance and will spiral into a crisis "somewhere in the next two years." Speaking in a virtual interview at the annual Greenwich Economic Forum on Tuesday, the longtime investor said he's short debt as governments and large-scale tech companies flood the market with paper while institutional buyers, such as China and Japan, pull back.
《国家如何破产》的作者表示：“我们确实处于一个有风险的时期。”达尔欧在之前的一次采访中警告称，美国正接近其可承受债务上限的极限，因为不断上升的利息成本占据了政府支出的越来越大的份额。他还表示，地缘政治紧张局势正在抑制外国对美国债务的需求。
"We are certainly in a risky period," the author of "How Countries Go Broke" said. Dalio warned in an earlier interview that the US is approaching the limits of how much debt it can sustain, as rising interest costs consume a growing share of government spending. He has also said geopolitical tensions are weighing on foreign demand for US debt.
除了做空债券之外，达尔欧表示，一个理想的多元化投资组合应该有5%至15%的黄金。他将大约1%的资产配置在比特币上，但他表示自己并不是比特币的支持者，尤其是当人工智能模型已经表明它们能够突破数字强国时。
Beyond his bet against bonds, Dalio said an ideally diversified portfolio would have between 5% and 15% in gold. He has a small amount, around 1%, allocated to bitcoin, though he said he's not a supporter, especially as artificial intelligence models have shown their abilities to break into digital strongholds.
2023年将家族办公室搬迁到阿布扎比的达尔欧还在美国之外寻找多元化投资机会。他表示，像新加坡和阿联酋这样的“盈余国家”，它们拥有丰厚的现金储备且不依赖外国借款，具有吸引人的投资前景，此外欧洲也有一些零星的投资机会。
Dalio, who relocated his family office to Abu Dhabi in 2023, is also looking outside the US for diversification. He said "surplus countries" like Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, which are cash-rich and don't rely on foreign borrowing, have attractive profiles, as well as isolated opportunities across Europe.
达尔欧在评估一个国家的潜力时表示：“他们是否有创新能力？他们是否顺应潮流，还是被潮流所淘汰？”他还推崇通胀挂钩债券，即随着通胀上涨或下降而变动的债券，作为对抗持续上涨的成本的一种对冲工具。
"Are they innovative? Are they on the wave or are they being swept away?" Dalio said about evaluating countries' potential. He also talked up inflation-indexed bonds, which rise and fall with inflation, as a hedge against sticky cost increases.
“你不知道的事情比你知道的事情要多得多，”他说。“但我确实认为我们有一个债务问题。”
"What you don't know is greater than anything you do know," he said. "But I do think we have a debt issue."